Tips for Tikay

[Larry David]

@Tightend, what do you have in the last race? Tips from this thread that is?

Blood Cotil

Cheers. Played next sensation.

Good luck

Always nice to end the festival on a high 

[Larry David]

Had a friendly whisper in my ear 2 weeks ago about this one

[TightEnd]

It was a bad day today

14 horses tipped, and one each way in the first, Hargam in 3rd, gave a return

the horses returned -£220

The pre-festival >50-1 winner tip lost -£50

Ruby Walsh finished top jockey +£20

Overall, taking a £137 profit into today the thread lost £113 over the four days

that includes the £225 profit from Vautour to win any race so net of that - £337

14 people contributed tips

Over the 29 races 4 of the horses selected won, but only two were active tips not an offer price (vautour, aux ptit soins)

7 horses placed each way, all of these were "active" tips. the biggest price each ways were 40-1 and 25-1

[DungBeetle]

Peter - I assume you are massive unders of McLaren points at 155?

How bad do you think it could get for them?  Surely they will outdevelop teams over time?

I seriously doubt McLaren will finish in the top five all season, so I can't imagine they will reach 155 points. What market is this for? Link?

Their car may well develop during the season, but the major factor in the current era of F1 is the powertrain - that's the reason Mercedes are so dominant, despite not having the most aerodynamically efficient car. Powertrain development is limited by regulation, it's done on a token system. Until the end of the season the tokens available per manufacturer are:

Renault 12, Ferrari 10, Honda 9, Mercedes 7.

Would take me ages to go into exactly what this all means, but in theory the Renault & Ferrari powertrain should develop more than Honda over the season - so I can't really see McLaren jumping up the grid too far. Additionally, don't forget that Honda are starting way behind their rivals.

Sporting Index season points (sell priceS)

Merc 660
Ferrari 338
Williams 326
Red Bull 282
McLaren 155
Lotus 95
Force India 72
Toro Rosso 66

Hmmm, never come across Sporting Index before! Just had a look, not entirely sure I understand how this buy/sell concept works.

Could someone explain?

http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/motor-racing/formula-1/mm4.uk.meeting.5057058/formula-1-2015-constructors-season-points

One slight problem is that if you sell in this market ie bet that they will accumulate less than 155 points, you have to tie up a lot of money because the theoretical maximum points are so much higher than 155.  (Unless there is a stop loss but there doesn't appear to be)

I think that you would have to deposit about £700 to bet on £1 a point.

You wouldn't need to post max downside.  You'd get that trade on with a 100 deposit.

[doubleup]

Fair enough - how do they manage that?  Do you have to ask for credit?  When I played racing distance markets they only allowed me to bet up to the maximum exposure.

[tikay]

It was a bad day today

14 horses tipped, and one each way in the first, Hargam in 3rd, gave a return

the horses returned -£220

The pre-festival >50-1 winner tip lost -£50

Ruby Walsh finished top jockey +£20

Overall, taking a £137 profit into today the thread lost £113 over the four days

that includes the £225 profit from Vautour to win any race so net of that - £337

14 people contributed tips

Over the 29 races 4 of the horses selected won, but only two were active tips not an offer price (vautour, aux ptit soins)

7 horses placed each way, all of these were "active" tips. the biggest price each ways were 40-1 and 25-1

Thanks Rich.

Well that could have been worse I guess, & would have been without that lovely £50 @ 9/2 on Vautour that Adzy put up.

14 different tipsters was pretty good, too.

Think we ran a bit bad in a few spots, but that's the nature of the beast, it was just really tough to find winners this week, or at least, it felt that way.

Would not have missed it for the world, everytime the horses went to post, that buzz was there.

It's a shame we have a few regulars who have gone AWOL, but it is what it is, it's just a forum thread. They are all welcome to return any time they want, or not, as they wish. We gained a few new guys, too, so that's good.

And well done Rich for investing so much time & effort this week on behalf of Fred.

Midlands Grand National tomorrow, & the F1 season starts in the early hours of Sunday morning.

On we go.

[hector62]

Spread betting is covered by financial regulations and debts are enforceable by law.

[exstream]

Has to be on the fringe!

On the fringe looked very impressive last race.

[doubleup]

Spread betting is covered by financial regulations and debts are enforceable by law.

All gambling debts are enforceable in law.  

I guess that the difference between my horse distance bet is that it's win/loss in a matter of hours but the GP bet shouldn't go catastrophic after the first GP (but if they got two podiums....)

I'm sure you have to ask SI for credit though, I can't remember if I did or not.

[TightEnd]

who do we spot presenting the trophy to Nina?

Click to see full-size image.

and getting the lowdown from JP?

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

who do we spot presenting the trophy to Nina?

Click to see full-size image.

and getting the lowdown from JP?

Click to see full-size image.

Incredible, how does he do it?

[tikay]

Just to conclude the Cheltenham experience, I've had a PM from Tighty, which included this...


The following accounts now need funding.....

betvictor
ladbrokes
bwin

We hear you, Tighty.

[TightEnd]

Just to conclude the Cheltenham experience, I've had a PM from Tighty, which included this...


The following accounts now need funding.....

betvictor
ladbrokes
bwin

We hear you, Tighty.

All part of the service.

[tikay]

Just to conclude the Cheltenham experience, I've had a PM from Tighty, which included this...


The following accounts now need funding.....

betvictor
ladbrokes
bwin

We hear you, Tighty.

All part of the service.

Someone said at the start of the week it was a waste of time keeping £500 in Ladbrokes. I solved that problem.

[NigDawG]

I'm crap with the maths on this sort of stuff, but Betfair SB have 3-1 on McCoy to ride a winner today.

Hargam 13-2
Ned B 9-2
Carlingford 11-1
Princely Conn 10-1
Fletchers Flyer 20-1

If someone could run the numbers, but that seems ok to me? Wont recommend until someone confirms if its good or not!

Anyone from Team Maths around, to run these numbers? Doobs is busy actuaryating, & Argue seems to be on a sabbbatical.

Wish I knew the formula but these odds come to : 25740/1980 , 25740/2860, 25740/2340, 25740/2574, 25740/1287

Which when added together make :  25740/11041 = 2.33  , which makes it a great bet I think!

Feel free to correct the high school maths workings :p

The maths for future reference is as follows:-

First turn the fractional odds into decimal odds by adding 1

13/2 = 7.5 decimal
9/2 = 5.5
11/1 = 12.0
10/1 = 11.0
20/1 = 21.0

Next find the percentage chance of the selection winning by dividing into 100

100 / 7.5 = 13.33 %
100 / 5.5 = 18.18 %
100 / 12 = 8.33 %
100 / 11 = 9.09 %
100 / 21 = 4.76 %

Now add all these Percentages together as anyone will win the bet, a OR b OR c OR d OR e

Equals 53.69 %

Now convert this back to decimal odds

100 / 53.69 = 1.86

So about 5/6

i don't think this is the correct way of working out this bet? for example, if all 5 were actually even money shots your method produces...?