Tips for Tikay

[doubleup]

Time to get to work on this weekend's F1 action.

We did OK last time, though we'd have done better if we'd backed what was suggested, some of which was around the EW market due to the lop-sided prices.

Most books go one third odds top 2, but Totesport & it's brother, Baldy, go one fifth top 3.


http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/malaysian-grand-prix/winner

Unf Baldy is too short on the relevant drivers to make the 3 place angle worthwhile (using the "to podium" market as a guide).  If he went Raikkonen 33-1 it would be a good bet I think.

[Doobs]

Time to get to work on this weekend's F1 action.

We did OK last time, though we'd have done better if we'd backed what was suggested, some of which was around the EW market due to the lop-sided prices.

Most books go one third odds top 2, but Totesport & it's brother, Baldy, go one fifth top 3.


http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/malaysian-grand-prix/winner

Unf Baldy is too short on the relevant drivers to make the 3 place angle worthwhile (using the "to podium" market as a guide).  If he went Raikkonen 33-1 it would be a good bet I think.

No 5/2 Nico third each way 2 places this week either. 

No harm in putting up group bets for readers even if thread can't get on.

[DungBeetle]

Ericsson to finish in the points looks a fair bet at 7/4?  Saubers look solid with their ferrari engine.  McLaren/Red Bull both struggling for early season pace and reliability.

Feel this should be shorter (Teammate is odds on).

Thoughts?

[The Camel]

a big win for the Portland Trailblazers as they beat Utah 92-89,



especially as Oklahoma City Thunder their nearest challenges for the division lost 130-91 to the San Antonio Spurs



Presumably the NBA equivelant of a football 6 pointer?

Great news, we are back on the bike after a mini-wobble.

3 wins from their remaining games should be more than enough to lock up the division.  Portland still have to play two of the worse teams in the league at home (Lakers and Twolves) and will be heavy odds on favs for both games.  Pretty much weighed in.  OKC are running into the Western conference power houses on their upcoming schedule now short handed with big injury issues which showed last night.  Very hard to see how they are going to find a minimum of 8 wins in their remaining games to have a chance.

Big weekend for the Spurs divisional bet.  Memphis have to face the Spurs and Golden State in their next two games.  If Memphis lose both of them then the Spurs divisional bet is alive and kicking.  If Memphis beat spurs then the bet is done.

To what lengths do teams go in order to win thier division in the NBA?

In the two US sports I follow closely (NFL and MLB) there is a huge advantage winning your division, but as a casual observer, it seems like there is not much advantage in the NBA except being one seed higher in the playoffs.

Let's say the Pawtucket Camels have secured their playoff berth but are still battling for their division. Their two star players Tony "Air" Kendall and Rich "The Mailman" Prew are carrying injuries which would they can play through, but would be helped by ten days rest before the playoffs.

Would Kendall and Prew play or sit?

[tikay]

Time to get to work on this weekend's F1 action.

We did OK last time, though we'd have done better if we'd backed what was suggested, some of which was around the EW market due to the lop-sided prices.

Most books go one third odds top 2, but Totesport & it's brother, Baldy, go one fifth top 3.


http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/malaysian-grand-prix/winner

Unf Baldy is too short on the relevant drivers to make the 3 place angle worthwhile (using the "to podium" market as a guide).  If he went Raikkonen 33-1 it would be a good bet I think.

No 5/2 Nico third each way 2 places this week either. 

No harm in putting up group bets for readers even if thread can't get on.

Yes, guess they soon sussed how bad it was, & that door has closed.

As to putting up Bets that Fred can't do, yes yes yes, it matters not a jot or tickle whether Fred can get on or not, the main thing is that others can, that's all that matters.

[BigAdz]

I expect we miss out on bets because Fred cant get on in various places. I know I have seen stuff on Sky and thought, don't bother. I understand the Sky conflict.

However, you have quite a list of ice creams jolly good fellows happy to place bets elsewhere, and we seem to be rather random in taking up their very kind offers. Should Fred just not accept this help and get the bandwagon rolling with the 365s/Betfreds/Stan James of this world?

Let get this party rocking again!!

[TightEnd]

I expect we miss out on bets because Fred cant get on in various places. I know I have seen stuff on Sky and thought, don't bother. I understand the Sky conflict.

However, you have quite a list of ice creams jolly good fellows happy to place bets elsewhere, and we seem to be rather random in taking up their very kind offers. Should Fred just not accept this help and get the bandwagon rolling with the 365s/Betfreds/Stan James of this world?

Let get this party rocking again!!

we've never turned down an offer of help, somewhere where we can't get on

[arbboy]

a big win for the Portland Trailblazers as they beat Utah 92-89,



especially as Oklahoma City Thunder their nearest challenges for the division lost 130-91 to the San Antonio Spurs



Presumably the NBA equivelant of a football 6 pointer?

Great news, we are back on the bike after a mini-wobble.

3 wins from their remaining games should be more than enough to lock up the division.  Portland still have to play two of the worse teams in the league at home (Lakers and Twolves) and will be heavy odds on favs for both games.  Pretty much weighed in.  OKC are running into the Western conference power houses on their upcoming schedule now short handed with big injury issues which showed last night.  Very hard to see how they are going to find a minimum of 8 wins in their remaining games to have a chance.

Big weekend for the Spurs divisional bet.  Memphis have to face the Spurs and Golden State in their next two games.  If Memphis lose both of them then the Spurs divisional bet is alive and kicking.  If Memphis beat spurs then the bet is done.

To what lengths do teams go in order to win thier division in the NBA?

In the two US sports I follow closely (NFL and MLB) there is a huge advantage winning your division, but as a casual observer, it seems like there is not much advantage in the NBA except being one seed higher in the playoffs.

Let's say the Pawtucket Camels have secured their playoff berth but are still battling for their division. Their two star players Tony "Air" Kendall and Rich "The Mailman" Prew are carrying injuries which would they can play through, but would be helped by ten days rest before the playoffs.

Would Kendall and Prew play or sit?

It is no where near as important as NFL/MLB where it is everything.  I have copied and pasted the following from wiki

The NBA announced the current revised playoff seeding system on August 3, 2006. Following the NBA regular season, eight teams in each conference qualify for the playoffs and are seeded one to eight.

The team that has the best record in each of the three divisions in each conference is declared division champion. The three division champions, and another team in the conference with the best record, are seeded one through four by their records. This guarantees the division champions no worse than the fourth seed, and also guarantees the team with the second-best record in the conference will be the second seed even if it happens to finish second in its division. Of the remaining eleven conference teams, the four with the best records are seeded fifth through eighth based on their record.

For Portland it is relatively more important than the other two divisions because they are very tightly grouped with other teams in the Western conference.  They could win their division and have the 7th best regular season record but still be seeded 4th (ie get home court advantage in the first round of the play offs and play the 5th best team with home court rather than play the 2nd best team without home court advantage) so winning the division does have quite significant benefits for a team in Portland's position.

In general teams will be battling to finish in top 2/4 to secure home court advantage for the first two rounds/first round so they play 4 games rather than 3 at home.  Teams will rest players where they have nothing to play for (ie locked up their division and/or playoff position which can't be improved) but usually they will still be fighting for the best possible seeding going forward.

[tikay]

I expect we miss out on bets because Fred cant get on in various places. I know I have seen stuff on Sky and thought, don't bother. I understand the Sky conflict.

However, you have quite a list of ice creams jolly good fellows happy to place bets elsewhere, and we seem to be rather random in taking up their very kind offers. Should Fred just not accept this help and get the bandwagon rolling with the 365s/Betfreds/Stan James of this world?

Let get this party rocking again!!

Thanks Adz.

I can't emphasise enough, it does not matter if Fred can get on or not, I hope & want others to stick bets up completely irrespective of Fred.

And yes, lots of kind souls offer to place bets on behalf of Fred. It's sometimes cumbersome though, as it adds another link to the chain, & generally adds time to the process, by which time the prices go.   

I also feel slightly embarrassed at accepting so many favours so often. It feels kind of wrong, & one way.

Marky probably gets it right, he just plonks the bet on & says "you owe me £x". I've yet to actually GET any money from him, mind......

Think we are slowly geting back on track, after a bit of a hiatus. I do still have one really awkward nettle to grasp, which I keep putting off, whilst I grapple with the best way to sort it, but fingers crossed & all that.

It's just a great semi-Freeroll for so many, so worth a bit of effort.

[DMorgan]

Happy to get Fred on at Unibot and £3.65

[Marky147]

Fred has been going for 3 years, and Tikay still has a fair few accounts, coupled with people that help get on.

I'm sure Tikay is fine with another 5  grand of profit, and a couple years of fun thrown in, too...

[tikay]

Fred has been going for 3 years, and Tikay still has a fair few accounts, coupled with people that help get on.

I'm sure Tikay is fine with another 5  grand of profit, and a couple years of fun thrown in, too...

Ha, I love the fun aspect, & it is extremely important to blonde, so I very much hope it continues.

Not complaining, but I've yet to see a penny of that £5k profit. There is a few grand tied up in the various Accounts, I don't have tme to micro-manage them & withdraw after nice wins, it just sits there, & we have, last time I looked, some £4,200 of forward bets.  

The only upside (for me) of it all ending is I'd get the profits (hopefully...) & cash from that £4,200 drip-fed to me over the coming months.

It'd be proper pissed off if I popped my clogs though, & all that dosh was left to the bookies.

[BorntoBubble]

Fred has been going for 3 years, and Tikay still has a fair few accounts, coupled with people that help get on.

I'm sure Tikay is fine with another 5  grand of profit, and a couple years of fun thrown in, too...

Ha, I love the fun aspect, & it is extremely important to blonde, so I very much hope it continues.

Not complaining, but I've yet to see a penny of that £5k profit. There is a few grand tied up in the various Accounts, I don't have tme to micro-manage them & withdraw after nice wins, it just sits there, & we have, last time I looked, some £4,200 of forward bets.  

The only upside (for me) of it all ending is I'd get the profits (hopefully...) & cash from that £4,200 drip-fed to me over the coming months.

It'd be proper pissed off if I popped my clogs though, & all that dosh was left to the bookies.

If you wrote in your will "all betting accounts money is to be used on a big piss up!"

[Marky147]

Fred has been going for 3 years, and Tikay still has a fair few accounts, coupled with people that help get on.

I'm sure Tikay is fine with another 5  grand of profit, and a couple years of fun thrown in, too...

Ha, I love the fun aspect, & it is extremely important to blonde, so I very much hope it continues.

Not complaining, but I've yet to see a penny of that £5k profit. There is a few grand tied up in the various Accounts, I don't have tme to micro-manage them & withdraw after nice wins, it just sits there, & we have, last time I looked, some £4,200 of forward bets.  

The only upside (for me) of it all ending is I'd get the profits (hopefully...) & cash from that £4,200 drip-fed to me over the coming months.

It'd be proper pissed off if I popped my clogs though, & all that dosh was left to the bookies.

You'll only punt it off on Lattes and sticky buns, so prob for the best

[TightEnd]

Ericsson to finish in the points looks a fair bet at 7/4?  Saubers look solid with their ferrari engine.  McLaren/Red Bull both struggling for early season pace and reliability.

Feel this should be shorter (Teammate is odds on).

Thoughts?

i like this

the lack of competitve depth in F1 at the moment (mclaren at the back, particularly) gives a lot more top 10 and top 6 opportunities (top 6 opportunities in part because red bull in australia were only half a second or less ahead of the "pack") to teams priced nicely odds against to get there

you might also argue that early season when reliability is an issue that these prices are especially big

in malaysia of course you've got heat, humidity (tests the engines) and a late afternoon start bringing weather/safety car risks that all might suggest teams outside mercedes, williams, ferrari, red bull have a good crack at top 6 top 10 etc

so

eg the force indias don't look particularly quick, but look very reliable and we were on them in australia

eg last race people like verstappen were identified on the basic theme outlined above

you have said ericsson for this race, i like grosjean 11/4 top six and no doubt peter will find some stuff in the groups