Tips for Tikay

[nellberg]

Do it please, Tighty.

And if anyone has any other perceived value bets for this, post them up please, & we can take a look at them as well.

i was going through the markets for teams top batsman etc, see if anything stuck out, get to delhi and find a mish-mash of out of form players, average uncapped indians and steady overseas. compared to the other teams their batting is woeful and whilst their bowling looks decent they surely can't get enough runs to be competitve. 11/4 at firms, 3/1 to finish bottom on bf ex. great bet in my opinion, should at least get a sweat for you money over the course of the tournament

[TightEnd]

Was just looking at the Villa QPR game tonight and was surprised to see over 2.5 goals was odds against. QPRs last 5 have gone over 2.5 (the 2 away games in that period had 4 and 5 goals), Villas last 5 have seen 3 games go over 2.5 tho only 1 was at home, and the last two meetings of Villa at home to QPR have both gone over 2.5 (4 and 5 goals) though the last 3 games where QPR have hosted villa haven't. More importantly both QPR and Villa must try to win this game with a draw not really benefiting either team (although worse for QPR). This along with QPRs defensive record and Sherwoods more offensive Villa makes this a bet imo. Rec £20 @ 23/20 on bfsb

any views for or against this?

seems reasonable doesn't it?

[TightEnd]

could we have a small value play on Rajasthan in the IPL please?

14/1 e/w 1/3 1,2 Betfrd

17.5 on Betfair

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/indian-premier-league/winner

8 teams, top 4 make the quarters, round robin group stage, they play each other home and away

Rajasthan are the outsiders of 8.

Look at this line up and then ask why?

Rahane
Nair
S Watson
S Smith
Samson
Faulkner
Binny
Southee
Bhatia
Tambe
Kulkarni

Rahane, Smith and the rest of the top six is a competitive line up
they have Faulkner for the death bowling
A touch short in bowling depth, but its a steady line up probably lacking a real match winner especially amongst the spinners

obviously the big boys like CSK, KKR, RCB, Mumbai have a lot of "star power" and in terms of competitive balance this is especially important in the Indian players, as each team has to play 4 overseas only

but we're getting 14-1+ in an 8 horse race in a randomising format where any team can beat any other....we have two of the world's best batsmen, two more world cup winning all-rounders and a decednt shot at being competitive

a column out last week went through every team and wrote as follows

"Rajasthan Royals 16.00

Strengths: In Shane Watson, the captain, Steve Smith and James Faulkner the Royals boast the core of Australia World Cup winning squad. They are another side who are well balanced having hitters at the top, middle and bottom, death bowlers and an army of spinners.

Weaknesses: Although they have an army of spinners, most of them are legspinners and it would be nice if they had a star twirler to complete the line-up. But then they are 16.00.

Squad: Shane Watson(c), Abhishek Nayar, Ajinkya Rahane, Ankit Nagendra Sharma, Ben Cutting, Deepak Hooda, Dhawal Kulkarni, Dishant Yagnik, James Faulkner,Karun Nair, Pravin Tambe, Rahul Tewatia, Rajat Bhatia, Sanju Samson(wk), Steven Smith, Stuart Binny, Tim Southee, Vikramjeet Malik, Chris Morris, Juan Theron, Barinder Singh Saran, Dinesh Salunkhe, Sagar Trivedi, Pardeep Sahu"

https://betting.betfair.com/cricket/indian-premier-league---ipl/ipl-2015-squads-players-teams-060415-194.html"

the betfair price is out over a point since. ignored, under-rated and not particularly fashionable a pick, but therein lies the opportunity

if you look through the squads you'll see its a very competitive heat, probably more competitive than a range of prices 5-2 to 14-1 suggests

small stuff, a £10 in the win market and £10 each way

a value stab at a tough event to bet with much confidence

 

I've backed the Sunrisers at 9-1, based on the Warner/Dhawan and Steyn/Boult batting and bowling opening combinations. They are a little light in the spin bowling department but there pace attack is the strongest in the tournament imho.

I've also backed Steve Smith at 28-1ew for top run scorer. Not necessarily 'strongly' recommending either of these bets, just in case anyone wants a little interest bet.

I actually think the teams are failrly evenly balanced this year. There isn't really a hugely standout team, although I suppose Chennai will be there or there abouts come the end.

thans for this

Smith only scored 147 runs in the competition last year, but of course much has changed since. in great form, clearly and one of the top players around

rahane and samson top scored for rajasthan with 339 which was just outside the top 20 in the tournament. obviously, were hoping rajasthan are more prolific this year.

anyway to get into an each way spot last year a batsman needed to score 523 runs (top 5) and 4 of the top 5 played 16 matches..ie their team went deep into the play-offs/knockout stages

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/indian-t20-league-2014/engine/records/batting/most_runs_career.html?id=8827;type=tournament

interesting price clearly and a great player, but just like the teams looking even this year (which i agree with) the sub-markets looked really tough to me. genuine contenders in each team

[TightEnd]

Do it please, Tighty.

And if anyone has any other perceived value bets for this, post them up please, & we can take a look at them as well.

i was going through the markets for teams top batsman etc, see if anything stuck out, get to delhi and find a mish-mash of out of form players, average uncapped indians and steady overseas. compared to the other teams their batting is woeful and whilst their bowling looks decent they surely can't get enough runs to be competitve. 11/4 at firms, 3/1 to finish bottom on bf ex. great bet in my opinion, should at least get a sweat for you money over the course of the tournament

the guide i quoted earlier says this

"Delhi Daredevils 14.00

Strengths: A great middle-order with Yuvraj Singh, JP Duminy and Angelo Mathews. There's good pace with Mohammad Shami and Nathan Coulter-Nile and spin, too in the form of Amit Mishra or Imran Tahir. Better balanced than the odds suggest.

Weaknesses: Will have to improve on a record of only two wins last season.

Squad: JP Duminy(c), Kedar Jadhav, Manoj Tiwary, Mohammed Shami, Nathan Coulter-Nile, Quinton De Kock(wk), Saurabh Tiwary, Shahbaz Nadeem, Mayank Agarwal, Imran Tahir, Jayant Yadav, Angelo Mathews, Yuvraj Singh, Amit Mishra, Jaydev Unadkat, Gurinder Sandhu, Shreyas Iyer, CM Gautam, Dominic Muthuswamy, Albie Morkel, Travis Head, Marcus Stoinis, Kona Srikar Bharat, KK Jiyaz, Zaheer Khan"

i think "great" middle order overstates it, but nonetheless in a pretty even looking line up 3-1 is quite short isn't it? obviously a poor team last year but revamped this year. of course they may not click....

Tahir, Shami etc makes them one of the more dangerous bowling line ups

agree about the domestic line up, Shami/Mishra apart

no idea who i would suggest to finish bottom at the prices though!

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/indian-premier-league/to-finish-bottom

[tikay]

A busy few days on Fred, by the looks of it! Well done Moony and others. Fab daily reports, as ever, Tighty.

Scalextric racing and Wealthy Businessman-Sponsored Pyjama Cricket, eh?

Still, all adds to the Novelty portfolio, while we wait for Strictly to start.

Love that. Peter won't be happy though. Oh no.

[tikay]

Was just looking at the Villa QPR game tonight and was surprised to see over 2.5 goals was odds against. QPRs last 5 have gone over 2.5 (the 2 away games in that period had 4 and 5 goals), Villas last 5 have seen 3 games go over 2.5 tho only 1 was at home, and the last two meetings of Villa at home to QPR have both gone over 2.5 (4 and 5 goals) though the last 3 games where QPR have hosted villa haven't. More importantly both QPR and Villa must try to win this game with a draw not really benefiting either team (although worse for QPR). This along with QPRs defensive record and Sherwoods more offensive Villa makes this a bet imo. Rec £20 @ 23/20 on bfsb

any views for or against this?

seems reasonable doesn't it?

It does to me. I got the impression that QPR were very lucky on Saturday.

As it happens, I would quite like to see Villa beaten, as I can't rid myself of the view that Sherwood is a talking horse with no pedigree who must have got very lucky to walk into a fabulous job.

I think Villa will win tonight though.

Odds against for over 2.5 feels good though.

[TightEnd]

who said this?

"its the biggest game of my managerial career, a million percent it is"

Click to see full-size image.

we have £20 at 23/20 betty book over 2.5 goals in this evening's extravaganza, featuring QPRs very strong* substitutes bench

* or not

[tikay]

No idea.

But I do know the very famous & successful Manager who, when his team's performance was criticised, said.....

"that's fucking bollocks"

[TightEnd]

No idea.

But I do know the very famous & successful Manager who, when his team's performance was criticised, said.....

"that's fucking bollocks"

a million percent him

Click to see full-size image.

[nellberg]

Do it please, Tighty.

And if anyone has any other perceived value bets for this, post them up please, & we can take a look at them as well.

i was going through the markets for teams top batsman etc, see if anything stuck out, get to delhi and find a mish-mash of out of form players, average uncapped indians and steady overseas. compared to the other teams their batting is woeful and whilst their bowling looks decent they surely can't get enough runs to be competitve. 11/4 at firms, 3/1 to finish bottom on bf ex. great bet in my opinion, should at least get a sweat for you money over the course of the tournament

the guide i quoted earlier says this

"Delhi Daredevils 14.00

Strengths: A great middle-order with Yuvraj Singh, JP Duminy and Angelo Mathews. There's good pace with Mohammad Shami and Nathan Coulter-Nile and spin, too in the form of Amit Mishra or Imran Tahir. Better balanced than the odds suggest.

Weaknesses: Will have to improve on a record of only two wins last season.

Squad: JP Duminy(c), Kedar Jadhav, Manoj Tiwary, Mohammed Shami, Nathan Coulter-Nile, Quinton De Kock(wk), Saurabh Tiwary, Shahbaz Nadeem, Mayank Agarwal, Imran Tahir, Jayant Yadav, Angelo Mathews, Yuvraj Singh, Amit Mishra, Jaydev Unadkat, Gurinder Sandhu, Shreyas Iyer, CM Gautam, Dominic Muthuswamy, Albie Morkel, Travis Head, Marcus Stoinis, Kona Srikar Bharat, KK Jiyaz, Zaheer Khan"

i think "great" middle order overstates it, but nonetheless in a pretty even looking line up 3-1 is quite short isn't it? obviously a poor team last year but revamped this year. of course they may not click....

Tahir, Shami etc makes them one of the more dangerous bowling line ups

agree about the domestic line up, Shami/Mishra apart

no idea who i would suggest to finish bottom at the prices though!

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/indian-premier-league/to-finish-bottom

i think that report has talked them up more than is realistic. an overseas 4 of de kock, duminy, matthews and tahir is poor compared to the other sides, when you'd imagine jp and angelo would be coming in down the order. compared to rcb with gayle, ad dv, starc in the key roles its weak. tahir and mishra defo a good spin pairing, will enjoy watching that, but major question marks over them. i know its a much revamped team but they've thrown in the towel early the last few editions. yuvi isn't what he was, duminy as skipper is a punt in the dark from them, and they'll turn over players like no-ones business trying to find combinations that the settled sides can already rely on. as always its a matter of opinon and 3/1 may look small in theoritical 8 runner field, but the likes of chennai and rcb are never going to be bottom. you make a good case for the royals, and i like the sunrisers like another poster said, can win a game in first 6 overs with bat or ball, so you're left with the stereotypical powerhouses who i can't see being that inconsisten. as i say, everyone has there own opinions on the strength of the teams, that's why it should be a great comp this time around

[tikay]

No idea.

But I do know the very famous & successful Manager who, when his team's performance was criticised, said.....

"that's fucking bollocks"

a million percent him

Click to see full-size image.

Quite how he talked himself into managing the biggest club in the Midlands is a mystery to me. Hope he proves me wrong, & good luck to him if he over achieves, nothing wrong with that.

[Peter-27]

A busy few days on Fred, by the looks of it! Well done Moony and others. Fab daily reports, as ever, Tighty.

Scalextric racing and Wealthy Businessman-Sponsored Pyjama Cricket, eh?

Still, all adds to the Novelty portfolio, while we wait for Strictly to start.

Love that. Peter won't be happy though. Oh no.

Scalextrics run on rails, Formula E does not 

[Junior Senior]

Was just looking at the Villa QPR game tonight and was surprised to see over 2.5 goals was odds against. QPRs last 5 have gone over 2.5 (the 2 away games in that period had 4 and 5 goals), Villas last 5 have seen 3 games go over 2.5 tho only 1 was at home, and the last two meetings of Villa at home to QPR have both gone over 2.5 (4 and 5 goals) though the last 3 games where QPR have hosted villa haven't. More importantly both QPR and Villa must try to win this game with a draw not really benefiting either team (although worse for QPR). This along with QPRs defensive record and Sherwoods more offensive Villa makes this a bet imo. Rec £20 @ 23/20 on bfsb

any views for or against this?

seems reasonable doesn't it?

It does to me. I got the impression that QPR were very lucky on Saturday.

As it happens, I would quite like to see Villa beaten, as I can't rid myself of the view that Sherwood is a talking horse with no pedigree who must have got very lucky to walk into a fabulous job.

I think Villa will win tonight though.

Odds against for over 2.5 feels good though.

Hope so.
Benteke hat trick and a Philips double with austin sent off in the first half will do just nicely for the fantasy football trifecta,

[tikay]

Mr Sherwood is quoted as saying.......


Villa manager Tim Sherwood has told his players to be ready for what he describes as "the club's biggest match for years".


Sherwood, who started his managerial career with Tottenham last season, said: "I think this is the biggest game that a lot of these players have ever played for this football club.

"This is without doubt the biggest game of the season for Villa and possibly one of the biggest in a number of years and this is the biggest of my managerial career."


Big game then. We hear you Tim, we hear you.

Have a read of this son, it might help.

[The Camel]

who said this?

"its the biggest game of my managerial career, a million percent it is"

Click to see full-size image.

we have £20 at 23/20 betty book over 2.5 goals in this evening's extravaganza, featuring QPRs very strong* substitutes bench

* or not

8 million percent it's Queens Park Rangers biggest game for 500+ years also.

Why wouldn't you put Adel Taarabt on the bench, you know, just in case.