Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

He's managed three of the top four, too.

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Place your bets now, please.

[DungBeetle]

I was trying a few days ago to put into words why the Rosberg bet was in trouble

fortunately james allen's article today does it

http://www.jamesallenonf1.com/2015/04/insight-why-vettel-and-ferrari-were-a-menace-to-rosberg-in-china-but-not-for-the-reason-he-thought/?utm_content=buffer6d494&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

"Last year Mercedes had a significant pace advantage over its rivals, which meant that the team strategists could experiment with different strategies – more stops or different tyres – for their car running in second place to give him a chance to win the race. This happened at most venues and led to some great races, like Bahrain and Spain, as well as some later in the season like Austin and Brazil......

The problem for Rosberg is that there is not the scope for two widely differing strategies this year between the Mercedes drivers, because Vettel is close enough that if one of the strategies goes wrong, the team would not get a 1-2 finish, in fact it might even lose the race. It is one thing to switch one driver onto a different tyre for the second stint if you are racing yourselves with the third place car 8 or 10 seconds behind. But quite another if Vettel is sitting 1.6 seconds behind in third place at the end of the opening stint.

This puts more emphasis on qualifying and the start of the race, which is why Rosberg was so deflated after missing pole by 4/100ths of a second on Saturday and why Hamilton had his car pointed at an aggressive angle on the start line, aiming across at Rosberg to cut off any challenge into Turn 1."

--

As, mistakes or mechanical problems apart, Rosberg can't outqualify Hamilton too often or overtake him in the race on what has to be an identical strategy...he's unlikely to beat him over a season long contest

There's no denying anything you've said here - it's fact rather than an opinion, Hamilton does just have the edge over his team mate in terms of pace. However this: "mistakes or mechanical problems apart", is what gives Rosberg a shot at the title. It's 50/50 on who has more reliability issues during the season. If Hamilton has two more mechanical issues, that's (probably) 50 points up to Rosberg. We got 4/1 on this which is phenomenal 

What makes this even better is that Hamilton does have a history of having accidents as the pressure builds later on in the season if he's unhappy with life. We saw it in 2010 & 2012.

Hamilton is a quicker qualifier and has more race pace and they are in identical cars.  The spread boys think Hamilton will finish 56 points ahead (currently 17)  What price do you think it should have been if 4-1 is phenomenal?

I don't see how this is much different from Hakkinen v Coulthard in 1998.  Cars far superior to the field but one driver with a clear edge.

[DungBeetle]

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/total-seats-ukip-banded

What price should under 99.5 ukip seats be tighty realistically?  1/100 at lads?  What am i missing here?  This must be a piss take surely?  Must be the easiest 1% on your money you will ever make in 3 weeks tax free surely?

Yep.  UKIP today announced they are only targeting 10 seats, and wins in any seats other than those would be remarkable.  It's a 1% gift.

[doubleup]

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/total-seats-ukip-banded

What price should under 99.5 ukip seats be tighty realistically?  1/100 at lads?  What am i missing here?  This must be a piss take surely?  Must be the easiest 1% on your money you will ever make in 3 weeks tax free surely?

Yep.  UKIP today announced they are only targeting 10 seats, and wins in any seats other than those would be remarkable.  It's a 1% gift.

prob just looking to boost deposits.  Some % of those who put in £1k+ are going to fancy they found another cert on the site.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £703.64

Outstanding Bets £4106.21

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=23

a loss of £25 yesterday, Birmingham drawing 2-2 at home to Blackburn. Demarai Gray of Birmingham is a real talent, scored last night but no win for us

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ongoing positions

football

Bamford scored again for Middlesborough. that bet £25 at 6-1 is home and hosed barring a miracle



All of the top sides won, Bournemouth, Norwich, Mddlesborough, Derby heaping the pressure onto Watford tonight

Garner did not score for Preston, no-one scored for Brighton which is standard, so our treble top scorer hopes as as they were. Needing a Garner goal or two before the end of the season

Peterborough drew 1-1 at home to Crewe. Doncaster won at Orient. Peterborough now only a point ahead of Doncaster, Doncaster have a game in hand

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Newport lost 2-0 at Southend. Their form has really tailed off in the back end of the season and they are outside the play-offs

cricket

Rajasthan Royals went top of the IPL table at this early strage with their thrid win on the spin, beating Mumbai with an excellent 79 from Steve Smith

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In the county game Newton and Vince failed again in the second innings, Scoring 19 for Northants and 9 for Hants respectively yesterday

Middlesex, who announced tghe replacement for Voges when he leaves for the Ashes tour (Joe Burns from Queensland who Vges replaced in the australian squad) need to bat out the final day to get a draw against Notts, but won't.

baseball

the Boston Red Sx contunied their fine start to the season, beating the Nationals 8-7 last night

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the Chicago White Sox continued their recovery, winning their third in a row this time in Cleveland, 4-1. Last year's MLB rookie of the year the Cuban slugger Jose Abreu struck a monster home-run to arrest a slump



NBA

The LA Clippers beat Phoenix 112-101, the Toronto Raptors lost 95-93 to the Celtics

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the big Spurs game for us is tonight

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[Chompy]

Philip Glenister got a mention in the Mirror this morning as being among the favourites to take over as Top Gear host.

What would be comedy is if we picked some random name down the list and put a flurry of small bets on to collapse the price.

Tim Westwood maybe?

Also, Tex got stretchered off for Brighton last night, but they only have three games left and the spread on total goals they manage for the rest of the season is 0.2-0.3.

[TightEnd]

Probably worth a little £5 ewe on Amidon in the 4.25 Cheltenham tomorrow.

20s with Sads.

have come to this late i am afraid

16s now, a fiver e/w......

 16:25 AMIDON (EW) (Horse Racing Outright - Race) Odds: 16/1 Stake: 10.00 Possible Return:  110.00

[BigAdz]

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/total-seats-ukip-banded

What price should under 99.5 ukip seats be tighty realistically?  1/100 at lads?  What am i missing here?  This must be a piss take surely?  Must be the easiest 1% on your money you will ever make in 3 weeks tax free surely?

Yep.  UKIP today announced they are only targeting 10 seats, and wins in any seats other than those would be remarkable.  It's a 1% gift.

prob just looking to boost deposits.  Some % of those who put in £1k+ are going to fancy they found another cert on the site.

Yup clearly a loss leader aimed at ill disciplined punters who may just leave it there.


Not normally my sort of bet, but one for the money buyers I think. Brizzle look good things at home vs Coventry on Saturday, and looks a another gift at 4/7.

Despite the opportunity to have an understandable wobble as they needed a win to secure promotion, they crushed Bradford 6-0.

Coventry scrambled a 91st minute home equalizer against Oldham.

Brizzle take their foot off the gas? I don't think so. In all the local press and even in a pre match tv interview the Chairman was very focused on not just promotion, but securing a title, as it would be their first in 60 years.

I have no doubt that he will ensure that no one at BC will be relaxing until the job is done and dusted. Plus, doesn't everyone want to do it in style at home? Trhey have a full squad of players and with half the team scoring last night, they are clearly still hungry.

Won't recommend for Fred, unless we get some proper weight behind it, but just my thoughts.

4/7 with VC. GL

[Tal]

Philip Glenister got a mention in the Mirror this morning as being among the favourites to take over as Top Gear host.

What would be comedy is if we picked some random name down the list and put a flurry of small bets on to collapse the price.

Tim Westwood maybe?

Also, Tex got stretchered off for Brighton last night, but they only have three games left and the spread on total goals they manage for the rest of the season is 0.2-0.3.

An acquaintance of mine's gardener's cousin works for someone who heard that Anton du Beke was being interviewed. Apparently, that's really a second choice, though, and would only be relevant if the Big Dog/Kingpin of the Car Game isn't available.

That kind of thing?

[tikay]

All of the top sides won, Bournemouth, Norwich, Mddlesborough, Derby


The legions of Brentford fans are hurting here, not even considered a "top side"......

[TightEnd]

Klopp has asked for his contract at Dortmund to be cancelled

there is a press conference this morning

might he be the front runner for Man C in this changed circumstance for the market?

or would he be in line for a real european biggie...

he was 16/1 this morning

i was busy but i note he has crunched into favouritism

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/man-city/next-permanent-manager

[tikay]

Philip Glenister got a mention in the Mirror this morning as being among the favourites to take over as Top Gear host.

What would be comedy is if we picked some random name down the list and put a flurry of small bets on to collapse the price.

Tim Westwood maybe?

Also, Tex got stretchered off for Brighton last night, but they only have three games left and the spread on total goals they manage for the rest of the season is 0.2-0.3.

Think we can count Sue Perkins out. Serious business, this.


Sue Perkins @sueperkins  ·  Apr 10
Just back from night shoot in Kolkata sewers to find my timeline busy with middle-aged man-trolls. General gist: Man do cars, woman do cake345 retweets 651 favorites
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Sue Perkins @sueperkins  ·  23h 23 hours ago
Guys, post the utterly fabricated story about me & Top Gear, my timeline has been full of blokes wishing me dead...


Sue Perkins @sueperkins  ·  23h 23 hours ago
This morning, someone suggested they'd like to see me burn to death.

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All of which goes to say that I am off Twitter for a bit. Love and peace x

[TightEnd]

i wrote this last week

"Liberal Democrats

57 seats in 2015, and until very recently running at single figures in the polls. About a year ago betting market seat projections had them in the 30-35 seat range for May 2015 for reasons we are all familiar with. As of now, with continued negative sentiment and the absence of any poll recovery the seat expectation is 25 seats at Ladbrokes (Evens over 25.5 seats), as low as the quote has ever been.

Using work from Robert Ford, senior lecturer in politics at the University of Manchester who has gone through the 57 seats won in 2015 and relating that through to current Ladbrokes odds, offered on a seat by seat basis, we see the following

18 seats are "safe". All 18 range from 8/15 or shorter at Ladbrokes, Liberal Democrat hold.  Cross-referencing that with the NewStatesman's election site, they have 17 seats with forecast 4%+ Lib Dem majorities

21 seats are "lost". All have less than 30% implied win probability according to Ladbrokes. 12 of these seats are in Scotland

So, to try to get a sense of whether there is an opportunity in over/under 25 seats we have to look at the remaining eats. Ford splits them into two categories :

a) 8 "Local Fortresses"  where local election strength and incumbent popularity should help the Lib Dems to hold on. Simon Hughes in Bermondsey is the prime example of this.

b) 10 "Open Seats" where incumbent MPs are standing down. Open seats without the incumbency boost that the LibDems often have through effective local operations sees new candidates likely to be be weighed down by the national party’s unpopularity.

Overall Ladbrokes have 27 constituencies where the Liberal Democrats are odds-on to hold and these are the "safe" and "local fortress" seats above.

In assuming nothing else than this in terms of seats won, the market is giving you an opportunity to go over 25.

The quote is assuming all is lost in two key areas

1. Urban Marginals

City centre and university seats they won in the 2000s by running to Labour’s left. Polls by Lord Ashcroft have found large swings to Labour in many of these, suggesting that even Nick Clegg’s Sheffield Hallam seat may be in doubt.

2. Rural Lib-Con battles

These are across Southern England, typically in the South West. Lord Ashcroft’s polling shows the Lib Dems’ local popularity runs well ahead of their national poll numbers in these seats including long-term incumbents with small but resilient majorities, such as North Devon, St Austell and Newquay, St Ives, Torbay and North Cornwall.

the quote is now so low that you are hopefully being paid to be contrarian"

10 months ago we placed these

General election 2015 Lib dem seats   under 33.5   10/11   110
General election 2015 Lib dem seats   21-30   100/30   30

the second bet is now 5/4 favourite

the spread on seats is now 25-26

i think we should now try to play the middle, 26-34 to pick up the incumbency effects now being reported, and polled.

recommend £110 over 25.5 LD at 5/6 BV

[tikay]

Happy to support that suggestion, Tighty, not because I have the faintest idea, but I'm assuming you do.

[Marky147]

Dangerous game that pitching!