Tips for Tikay

[mondatoo]

Meh, on.

[tikay]

My tips are like London buses.

Don't get one for ages, then 2 pop along at the same time.

£25 ew Al Ferof in the Arkle at Cheltenham. 11/2 with Coral and Betbaldie.

This is looking like being the year of the filthy each way race with so many short priced "good things" in the Championship races taking out a huge % in the win market.

Leaving the ew thieves to gorge on the value of 1/4 odds the place all races.

The Arkle is looking lkke cutting up badly, and I can only see 4 potential placed horses (actually wouldn't be surprised if only 6 or 7 take part); Sprinter Sacre (the favourite.. mighty impressive in all his chases so far), Pedlar Cross (very high class hurdler, but was well below form last time out over fences and has a bit to prove in my eyes), Cue Card (enigmatic, super talented, but has disappointed once too often on the big stage for my liking and doesn't look a natural over the big obsticles to my eyes) and my pick at the prices: Al Ferof (rock solid form against seasoned chasers, a very high class hurdler, jumps super well for a novice, will stay further than 2m - very much a plus point in a race where they are likely to go super fast all the way).

Sprinter Sacre is definitey the most likely winner, but you will need an act of Parliament to keep Al Ferof out of the frame (you are getting 11/8 the place, I think his true price is around the 4/5 mark) and as he's trading 6.2-6.4 on betty, you are doing nothing wrong with the win part of this bet.

ON

£25 EW, Al Ferof, Arkle, 2.05pm, 13th March.

(Will be booked in the March Account).

Thanks Keith.

[tikay]

That's it, Episode one is completed, & the Final Acccount will follow shortly, followed by the opening statement for March, so we will run this for another month & then settle up again, assuming you guys want to keep it going, & keep Posting the Tips.

62 pages, 930 Posts, & nearly 12,000 views in a month, a lot of fun, & it cost me nothing - I'm abbsolutely delighted with how it went, & thank you to all those who contributed.

Camel - who started this, &/or MereAuditor may wish to comment, but I intend to settle the account as follows, unless you say otherwise.

The cost of the "unsettled" bets will be REMOVED from the February Account, & added to the March Account. That seems, in accounting terms, right & proper. It means March will start with a small negative, but it will also have a decent amount of equity in those unsettled bets - into 4 figures, I believe.

I did learn one very important thing - VALUE is so important. When we had 9/4 about that Dog the other night, so it did not matter if it won or lost - if we get 9/4 about 6/5 shots all the time, we will do OK. In my previous experience as a typical recreational mug punter, I just bet on what I fancied, with no care as to "value". There is no point at all beting on the football team we support just because they are "our" Team. 

I still don't always recognize value, so when people offer up tips (I exclude the "Pros" from this, as they are teaching us these things), you MUST offer a brief explanation as to why you think the bet represents value, & the reasons you think the bet is good.  Then, wherever possible, our resident Pros, in each particular sport, (we have them in Football, Golf, Horse Racing, Greyhounds, Tennis, Basketball, Darts, Celebrity Dancing) can offer advice as to the bet.

Keep the stuff coming, all good.

[tikay]

I did NOT place the suggested Tennis Bet yesterday, as I was not sure if it repped value, sorry Mr Singheee. Not personal, but I need to pay heed to the rules in Camel's opening Post. Keep the suggestions coming though, please.

For clarity, a bet is ONLY included in the running accounts if I confirm "ON" in advance of the action. I am bound to miss a few, time constraints etc, but that's how it has to be, & I note others are now using the Tips, so they are not wasted.

There were, for the purposes of the February account, NO bets yesterday. Both the bets suggested late last night will go into the March accoint, as both were unsettled.

As to today, I will be offline tonight from 5pm onwards, working, so will be unable to do any investments between 5pm & Midnight today.

[Simon Galloway]

Al Ferof is 9/2 with PP with all losing win bets (incl win part of ew bets) refunded if the fav wins.  How does this compare with 11/2 and no promo?

[tikay]

FEBRUARY FINAL ACCOUNT

Investments;

Camel, Oscars, Best Director, £40 (WON, returned £65.20)

redarmi, Lucky 15, £30 (returned £18.79)

Chompy, Celeb BB, £10 (lost)

Bobby1, Super Bowl, 1st Receiver, £50 (returned £92.50)

Camel, Super Bowl, MVP, £20 (lost)

Bobby1, Golf, £50 (lost)

Dubai, Super Bowl, Madonna, £100 (returned £150)

Bobby1, Super Bowl Shirt, £10 (lost)

MereNovice, RL 2nd half points, £50, (returned £86.56)

Bobby1, Gunter goals, £20, (lost)

Bazzaboy, Darts, Hamilton, £50 (lost)

maldini, Valencia to beat Stoke, £50 (returned £125)

Horneris, Stoke to beat Crawley T, £50 (returned £102.50)

Dubai, Mich State, £77 (returned £112)

Solaris, Niculescu Tennis, £50 (lost)

MereFence, Azarenkao, Tennis, £50 (lost)

Dubai, Baylor, NCCA, £40 (WON, returned £90)

Dubai, Villanova, £40 (lost)

Bobby1, Accenture match, Kim, £40 (lost)

Tighty, Napoli, CL, £50 @ 13/10, (returned £115)

Jaffa, NBA, 2 x £50 = £100, (lost, £100)

Mere, Bartoli, £50 (lost)

Tighty, RU6N, £20 (WON, returned £150)

Ralph, Fowler, £55 (lost)

ACE2M, Watney, £100, (won, returned £140)

Bobby, Molinari, £110 (won, returned £210)

Solaris, Tennis, £40, (won, returned £73.82)

ACE2M, Valencia v Stoke, £100, (won, returned £140)

ChipPrince, Barney 180's, Darts, £20 (lost)

ACE2M, England to beat Pakistan, £100 (lost),

MerePedant, Shrewsbury to beat Crawley, £50 (WON, returned £130))

ChipRich, Burnley, £50 (lost)

Floppy, Sunderland, £50 (lost)

Dubai, Azam Top Pakistan batsman, £20 (lost)

Dubai, Cherries, £50, (won @ 9/4, returned £162.50)

Claypole, Horse (£25, lost)

Ralph, Doggy, (£20, lost)

TOTAL STAKES = £1,812
__________________________________

Returns,

Lucky15, (redarmi) £18.79

Super Bowl Receiver, (Bobby1) £92.50

Super Bowl Madonna (Dubai) £150

Rugby League (MereNovice) £86.56

Valencia (maldini) £125

Stoke (Horneris) £102.50

Michigan NCCA (Dubai) £112

Napoli CL, (Tighty), £115

Watney, (ACE2M), £140

Molinari, (Bobby), £210

Hantuchova (Solaris), £73.82

Valencia (ACE2M), £140

Wales-England RU6N, (Tighty), £150

Oscars, (Camel), £65.20

Baylor (Dubai), £90

Shrewsbury (Mere), £130

Dog (Dubai), £162.50

TOTAL Returns = £1,963.87

____________________________________________


Total stakes = £1,812 , Total Returns = £1,964, = £152 profit 

February Profit = £152. 

[tikay]

March Account.

Investments;

Dubai, PL Darts, Anderson 180's, £50 (unsettled)

Chompy, Cloudy Lane, Chelters, £25 (unsettled)

Bobby, Leishman, Golf (£20, unsettled)

Camel, Barnet relegation, (£50, unsettled)

Camel, Al Ferof, Chelters, (£50 unsettled)

Total invested = £195

_____________________________

Returns

Nil to date.

March Profit/loss = £195 loss.

[tikay]

Al Ferof is 9/2 with PP with all losing win bets (incl win part of ew bets) refunded if the fav wins.  How does this compare with 11/2 and no promo?

Thanks Simon. Over to Camel.......

PS - Simon - I need to ship someone some cash on 'Stars - can you oblige? Only a few hundred $$$'s, & if you can do, I can send you ££ immediately by Bank TX. 

[Simon Galloway]

yup no probs, lmk the sn/amount etc..

[tikay]

My auditor & accountant, MereKPMG, has completed his forensic investigation of my February figures, & comes up with a slightly lower figure - £119.17 - due, I think, to some confusion my end betwen $$'s & £££'s in a few cases.

I am sure he is correct, but I plan to delude myself, & stay with the bigger figure for now. Had he come up with a higher figure, I would have changed it. Obv.

[MereNovice]

Al Ferof is 9/2 with PP with all losing win bets (incl win part of ew bets) refunded if the fav wins.  How does this compare with 11/2 and no promo?

I'll have a shot at this.

It all depends on the odds (more accurately the chances of winning) of the favourite.
Currently Sprinter Sacre is 5/4.

For the win part of the bet the maths of this is as follows.

If we assumed that the odds of 11/2 accurately reflected Al Ferof's chance of winning, then using a unit stake we would have,

Profit of 5.5 for 15% of the time.
Loss of 1 for 85% of the time.

Total expectation = 0.


When we take the offer of 9/2 we would have,

Profit 4.5 for 15% of the time
Level for 44% of the time
Loss of 1 for 41% of the time

Total expectation = 0.28.

So, the offer looks good to me.
If the favourite has a worse chance of winning than 11/2 it becomes a bad offer (but of course it wouldn't be favourite in this race if it did).

However, if we were backing Al Ferof to win then, presumably, we would believe that his odds of winning were better than 11/2 so, if anyone wants to give me a more accurate figure, I will rejig the figures above.

I'm happy to debate this with anyone.

[Dubai]

How come you're into college basketball Dubai?  Did you go to college there?  Seems an unusual sport to know so much about for someone over here.

Nah just got into it over last 6 years or so because of the hours poker leads really

[maccol]

My auditor & accountant, MereKPMG, has completed his forensic investigation of my February figures, & comes up with a slightly lower figure - £119.17 - due, I think, to some confusion my end betwen $$'s & £££'s in a few cases.

I am sure he is correct, but I plan to delude myself, & stay with the bigger figure for now. Had he come up with a higher figure, I would have changed it. Obv.

Ah, self-delusion,another box ticked on the path to total degeneracy.    

[tikay]

My auditor & accountant, MereKPMG, has completed his forensic investigation of my February figures, & comes up with a slightly lower figure - £119.17 - due, I think, to some confusion my end betwen $$'s & £££'s in a few cases.

I am sure he is correct, but I plan to delude myself, & stay with the bigger figure for now. Had he come up with a higher figure, I would have changed it. Obv.

Ah, self-delusion,another box ticked on the path to total degeneracy.    

Exactly.

[Dubai]

Under 5.5 180s Painter v Wade £50@ evens bodog or £48 @5-6 corals
Over 6.5 180s Barneveld v Hamilton £80@4-5 blue square or £66@8-11Boyles/hills
Over 7.5 180s Lewis v Anderson £110@8-11 Lads, Bfred or Hills
Taylor to average higher than 104.50 £48@ 5-6 VC

Enjoy