Tips for Tikay

[JaffaCake]

timing

[MereNovice]

Quality.

[JaffaCake]

u guys backed south africa right? They've started well, but how can they give their best batsman out, smith? Like this game is rigged....went to the third umpire, can see he doesn't nick it, u can see space between the ball and bat, then hot spot shows no nick on the bat, verdict? Out. Ridic

[MereNovice]

u guys backed south africa right? They've started well, but how can they give their best batsman out, smith? Like this game is rigged....went to the third umpire, can see he doesn't nick it, u can see space between the ball and bat, then hot spot shows no nick on the bat, verdict? Out. Ridic

Yes, a poor decision by Billy Doctrove - no blame to Aleem Dar.

On the plus side, Hashim Amla probably advanced the game quicker than Smith would have done.
As I type, Amla has just got out!

[JaffaCake]

Wouldn't have given him out either if i was third ump....u sure it's not salman butt in the box?

[MereNovice]

I hear that he's otherwise occupied so I think we're safe.
I take your point though!

[MereNovice]

At the end of day 1, South Africa are 136/2 off 42 overs.
Nothing much to shout about there.

[tikay]

At the end of day 1, South Africa are 136/2 off 42 overs.
Nothing much to shout about there.

Sounds decent to me - the price on a NZ win must have lengthened, & our price shortened?

How will the wicket suit our Phil?

[MereNovice]

At the end of day 1, South Africa are 136/2 off 42 overs.
Nothing much to shout about there.

Sounds decent to me - the price on a NZ win must have lengthened, & our price shortened?

How will the wicket suit our Phil?

SA drifted to 11/8 and draw is now 10/11.

The wicket will suit our Phil well. The problem is that SA have dropped their front line spinner and picked another seamer so there will be a bit more competition for the 1st innings wickets. It's still a good bet though.
His statistics are awesome. He has played 6 tests and taken 45 wickets at an average of 13.6 taking a wicket every 25 balls on average.
By comparison, Dale Steyn (his team mate and world ranked number one) has 270 wickets in  53 tests at an average of 23.15 taking a wicket every 40 balls on average.
The highlighted statistic is the key figure for our market.

http://www.espncricinfo.com/new-zealand-v-south-africa-2012/content/player/46945.html

[tikay]

Daily Update, as @ 6am Friday.

Summary to follow.






March Account.

Investments;

Dubai, PL Darts, Anderson 180's, £50 (unsettled)

Chompy, Cloudy Lane, Chelters, £25 (lost)

Bobby, Leishman, Golf (£20, lost)

Camel, Barnet relegation, (£50, unsettled)

Camel, Al Ferof, Chelters, (£50, lost)

Dubai, Darts Bet # 1, £50 (WON, returned £91.67)

Dubai, Darts Bet # 2, £66 (LOST)

Dubai, Darts Bet # 3, £110 (LOST)

Dubai, Darts bet # 4, £48,  (WON, returned £88)

Snowball, Cricket, £50 (lost)

Mere, RL Scorer, £50 (WON, returned £110)

Whisper, 'Boro, £25, (WON returned £48.50)

maldini, WBA, £25 (WON, returned £82.67)

Ralph, Rory Lay, £120 (lost)

Dubai, CL Goals, £75 (WON, returned £135)

Dubai, CL Result, £60 (WON, returned £129)

Mere, Cricket, SA v NZ, £50 (lost)

Chumpy, Blackpool football, £100 (lost)

Dubai, Darts, £120 (Lost)

Simon G, Chelt Top Trainer, £50 (WON, returned £200)

Dean, San Antonio, £100 (lost)

ChipRich, Brighton, £100 (WON)

Tighty, Arsenal Novelty Bet, £30 (lost)

redarmi, BM CL lay (£22, lost)

ACE2M, PP FB enhanced, (£20, lost)

MahagonyVic, Finians Rainbow (£50 EW, WON, returned £412.50)

Pokercade, The New One, (£25EW, lost)

Chompy, Bilbao v Man U (£50, WON, returned £143.75)

Tighty, Napoli, (£50 x 2, lost)

Redarmi, OW & TS (£50x2, lost)

Bobby, Gold Cup “WO” top 2 (£50, lost)

Fraser B, Wigan, DNB (£100, returned £100)

Horseplayer, $$ Mick (£50, lost)

Horseplayer, Pugnacity, (£20, lost)

Camel, Barnet, (£50 @11/2, unsettled)

Dazzler, Man C, (£50, WON, returned £95.45)

ChipRich, Leeds, (£50, lost)

Fraser, QPR v ‘Pool, (£100, lost)

Tighty,  Blackpool, (£80, lost)

Horseplayer horse, (£40, lost)

Jaffa, Hornets, (£50, lost)

Mere, Philander best bowler (£50 @ 5/2, unsettled)

Mere, SA to win Test, (£50 @ evens, unsettled)

Camel, Sunderland (£100 @ evens, unsettled)

Dubai, Darts Bet # 1 (£60 @ 5/6, WON, returned £110)

Dubai, Darts Bet # 2 (£45 @ 4/9 & 5/6, WON, returned £119.11)

Dubai, Darts Bet # 3 (£60 @ 6/5, WON, returned £110)

Total invested = £2,871.00
_____________________________

Returns

PL Darts # 1, (Dubai) £91.67

PL Darts # 4, (Dubai) £88

RL, Scorer, (Mere), £110

M'Boro (Whisper) £48.50

WBA (maldini), £82.67

Arsenal Goals (Dubai) £135

Arsenal Result (Dubai) £129

Brighton (ChipRich), £206

Cheltenham (Mahagony Vic) £412.50

Simon G (Top Trainer) £200

Chompy, (Bilbao) £143.75

Fraser B (Wigan) £100

Man C, Dazzler, £95.45

Dubai, Darts, £110

Dubai, Darts, £119.11

Dubai, Darts, £110

Total Returns = £2,179.98

__________________________

March Profit/Loss = £2,871 minus £2,180 = £691 loss. (Includes £350 cost of unsettled bets)

6 Unsettled bets , Anderson, Barnet (x 2) , Philander, SA, Sunderland, (6 bets), = £350     

[tikay]

Thursday Round-Up.

ONE loser - horseplayer, officially running bad. Hang in there man.

THREE Winners (all from Dubai)

THREE new "unsettled" (Camel Sunderland, & 2 x Mere Cricket bets).

One of the busiest days on Thread yet, & our first three-timer I think.

Dubai managed to come up with three purlers, all of which won hard held.

It included an astonishing piece of analysis, which exploited the fact that when Darts players face Phil Taylor, their averages tend to be higher than usual, as they rarely get as far as throwing Doubles, Taylor usually having won by then.

Here was the analysis.....

Wade over 96.5 average £60@5/6

4 of Taylors 6 opponents have averaged over this when playing him, reasons are obvious as when Taylor is in full flow they have less darts at doubles and just stick to scoring. Ones who averaged less - Anderson and reason was he missed bucket load of doubles and Taylor averaged sub 100 for only time and Hamilton arguably worst player in perm league averaged 96.4  which is 5pts higher than tourney average. Had my vc account closed today so back it with them


Lewis- Av v Taylor= 104.05 Tournament average WITHOUT taylor= 93.76      Taylor Effect= +10.29
Painter- Av v Taylor= 97.00   Tournament average WO T= 90.26                   Taylor Effect= +6.74
Barny-  Av v Taylor= 105.93 Tournament average WO T= 97.77                    Taylor Effect= +8.16
Whitlock- Av v Taylor= 105.44 Tournament average WO T= 95.44                 Taylor Effect= +10.00
Anderson-  Av v Taylor= 95.02 Tournament average WO T= 90.08                 Taylor Effect= +4.94
Hamilton- Av v Taylor= 96.39 Tournament average WO T= 90.56                   Taylor Effect= +5.83

Average Taylor Effect= +7.66 on a players average

Wades tourny average= 94.24. Therefore we can expect him to average around 101.90 tonight. And if trends are followed his average will be between 99.18 and 104.53


And what did Wadey throw?

His expectation based upon that was 101.90, & his actual was 102.07.

How good was that?

Meanwhile, as the match progressed, Dubai was feverishly calculating the running average via, I assume, a calculator, & Mere, I'm pretty certain, had devised a spreadsheet to auto-calculate after every throw. I kid you not.  

Amazing stuff.

Dubai has now contributed 7 of the threads 16 winners in March.  

4 of his 6 tips in February won, too.

He should consider packing in that job at Sainsburys, & turning pro, imo.

He alao stuck up a Staking Thread yesterday, & sold out (about €4,000 worth) in 5 hours flat.

PS - His Anderson 180's bet might be down the pan. Hopeless tipping.

[TightEnd]

Amazing stuff from Dubai. Sort of thing that should make odds setters change markets in the future. Unless we take the analysis down  

[tikay]

Todays action?

Nothing new so far, just some in-running stuff, being.....

2 cricket bets - SA to win the Test, & our Phil Ander to be best SA bowler. Today is DAy 2 of a 5 day Test, so that has a few days to run.

Barnet play again tonight - we are heavily invested in that.

[tikay]

Amazing stuff from Dubai. Sort of thing that should make odds setters change markets in the future. Unless we take the analysis down  

If requested, I would.

[tikay]

Busto alert?

At one stage yesterday, we were within £50 of having lost our entire £1,000, though that excludes the "unsettled" bets, which currently have a book cost of £350, being one third of the original roll.

A near perfect day eased the pressure though.

Currently, we are £700 behind, but £350 of that is "in-running". We could easily be in profit when they settle. Or bust.