Tips for Tikay

[superwomble]

Horsey, am in a Meet, on the ippy, so cannot c & p, but we have £10 on that nag in the 3.45 with Bet 365, @14/1.

Thanks, and gl.

Nag came in last but one.

"5th" sounds better!

Good point!

[JaffaCake]

Horsey, am in a Meet, on the ippy, so cannot c & p, but we have £10 on that nag in the 3.45 with Bet 365, @14/1.

Thanks, and gl.

Nag came in last but one.

"5th" sounds better!

In which case good news, our NBA team managed a second last night!

[Graham C]

Horsey, am in a Meet, on the ippy, so cannot c & p, but we have £10 on that nag in the 3.45 with Bet 365, @14/1.

Thanks, and gl.

Nag came in last but one.

"5th" sounds better!

In which case good news, our NBA team managed a second last night!

lol

[TightEnd]

Today's two LVCC games are already well advanced

   
Latest scores

Wednesday, 2 May 2012
LV County Championship - Division One
Lancashire: Yet to bat
Nottinghamshire: 123-8 (66.4 overs)

Warwickshire: 24-4 (14.4 overs)
Durham: 163 (50.3 overs)

The combination of weather, underprepared pitches and nerw regulations contnues to wreak havoc.



Tomorrow's match is the one I have been waiting for

Middlesex v Worcs at Lords

The pitches at Lords so far this year have been horrendous, a function of under-preparation due to the weather

In the games against Surrey and Durham respectively:

Middlesex 256 & 106 beat Surrey 222 & 137 by 3 runs  an average of 18 runs per wicket

Middlesex 188 & 179 drew with Durham 238 & 82-6 an average of 19 runs per wicket

Both games were weather affected, the Durham game lost six sessions to the game and almost produced a result



For this game Worcs are one of the weaker teams, and their strength is in an individual called Alan Richardson, the Cliff Gladwin of his generation

Richardson was named as one of Wisden's five cricketers of the year this year. A mid 30's workhorse, he will seam it in these conditions and take wickets

He has taken 12 wickets in just under three innings in his last two games

2/23, 2*    Worcs    v Notts    Worcester    26 Apr 2012    First-class
6/47, 0*, 4/81    Worcs    v Surrey    The Oval    19 Apr 2012    First-class

However the Middlesex Side can

a) be considered to be a stronger batting side and

b) Has seam bowling in depth with Steven Finn, Corey Colleymore and Toby Roland-Jones

(Chris Rogers (c) Gareth Berg Corey Collymore Joe Denly Neil Dexter Steven Finn Dawid Malan Tim Murtagh Ollie Rayner Sam Robson Toby Roland-Jones John Simpson (wk) Andrew Strauss is the squad)

The weather forecast for the next four days has rain for tomorrow morning, then a dry three days

Not so bad

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743

I expect a definite result, and I think it will be another low-ish scorer

I would like to pick a winner, rather than lay the draw, but to do so you are risking your side losing the toss and being put in on a lively one

However I put a clear advantage towards Middlesex in bowling depth

You can currently back Middlesex at 11/8 on Betfair

http://beta.betfair.com/cricket/competition?id=863879

Each and every fixed odds bookie has them 8/13 or so

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/domestic/county-championship-division-one/middlesex-v-worcestershire/winner


Downscaling bet-size because the losing of a toss can equalise things, strongly recommend snapping up the 11/8 on Middlesex on Betfair up to £50.

[LeKnave]

You can currently back Middlesex at 11/8 on Betfair

http://beta.betfair.com/cricket/competition?id=863879

Each and every fixed odds bookie has them 8/13 or so

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/domestic/county-championship-division-one/middlesex-v-worcestershire/winner


Downscaling bet-size because the losing of a toss can equalise things, strongly recommend snapping up the 11/8 on Middlesex on Betfair up to £50.

no idea about any of this, but there is a draw price on bfair, and not one with the bookies, hence the pricing differences.   so you're not getting 11/8 about an 8/13 shot.  

[TightEnd]

of course, thanks (me=doh)

[LeKnave]

of course, thanks (me=doh)

still doesn't stop it necessarily being a bet, i have no cricket knowledge.  thats your call.

[Graham C]

Watching SSN just now, there's a Belgian guy with he same as Fabrice, they have built in defibrillators  , amazing.  Clip of the Belgian guy dropping, then two seconds later he has the shock, another few seconds and he sits up.  Truly remarkable

[MANTIS01]

That's nothing. I've see Luis Suarez drop to the ground with terrible injuries several times, and just a few seconds later get straight back up as if nothing happened. That's without any help from fancy gadgets I might add.

[scotty2hatty]

The English Greyhound Derby is almost certainly the highlight of my sports betting year and whilst I know there are other greyhound racing enthusiasts on blonde none have thrown up their opinions, either in this thread or any others. Therefore I thought I'd offer my opinions and advise on a couple of bets.

"Early pace wins the race". A lot of dog punters tailor their bets purely around that phrase and here at Wimbledon we should too. The standout performance of the 1st round, both in terms of sectional times and race times, was that of Bubbly Phoenix who raced to the bend in 4:68 and didn't stop on his way to scoring a fastest of the round 28:31. He was 20/1 before round 1 and even bigger before an impressive trial prior to that. A schoolboy error led to me missing the 20s and his price has crashed in to a best price 8.6/1 on Betfair and I genuinely think he is still a bet at that price when compared with the other market leaders.

Bubbly Phoenix is a wide seed and is very likely to get a favourable draw in every round, whilst hopefully avoiding the likely trouble at the first bend that can often occur when we have 6 class dogs.

If you decide to follow my advice, I'd go for a straight win bet as we've probably missed the e/w value. Perhaps £20 win @ the 9.6 on Betfair.


The favourite is last year's champion, Taylors Sky, who I don't really like at the prices and I think the real outstanding value lies in the classy Coolavanny Bert who I am certain there is more to come from at Wimbledon. Bert has broken the track record at Sittingbourne and has carded cracking times at Henlow this year too. QAw, EP and the odd VQAw are dotted all over his results, and as I said before that is key here.

I'm topping up the win part of my bet on Betfair before Friday with 50 on offer but I recommend something like £15ew @ the 40/1 on offer with bet365 who are paying 1/4 odds top 6.


Lastly throw a 5er ew on Bombolini @ 200/1 on bet365, purely based on his first round performance where he broke quite smartly and went round in a good time. There could be more to come from him.


You may decide to not follow these suggestions but at the very least I hope it provokes some discussion.

[tikay]

Excellent summation, Scotty, thank you.

It would be unthinkable that the thread did not have an interest in the Greyhound Derby, so you have set a marker for others to weigh in & contribute, & we'll certainly have some interest in all or part of your suggestions.

I believe Mr Dubai is a bit of a dab hand at the cherries, too.

The Derby proper takes place end of this month, yes? I'll have a butchers at those bets tomorrow, or later tonight.

Thank you.

[tikay]

of course, thanks (me=doh)

Notwithstanding that "doh" moment, Rich, is it still a Tighty Tip @ 11/8?

I know much depends upon the toss, but if we won that flip it is almost a good thing, yes?

[TightEnd]

I think it is a good bet. I cannot have the DDraw, the weekend weather looks ok and middlesex are the stronger team

[tikay]

I assume we are all done for tonight's football? - our only interest is £30 @ 100/30 on the Muamba Moment.

In the other Premiership game, Newcastle are as high as 13/2 now, jeez. It would be an unlikely result, perhaps, but on pure League positions alone, 13/2 strikes me as way out of kilter with reality, & the facts, as shown by relative league positions.

In effect, the two teams are identical as to results, seperated merely by one single point (in Newcastle's favour, as it happens). It must be rare indeed, in those circumstances, for one of the 2 teams to be 13/2. They are as high as 15/4 just to draw!

 http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/chelsea-v-newcastle/winner

[tikay]

I think it is a good bet. I cannot have the DDraw, the weekend weather looks ok and middlesex are the stronger team

Good.

We shall be very shortly donning the very footwear that Dorothy Paget was famed for wearing.

PS - A trivia question for proper sporting geeks. The connection between the winningest Cheltenham Gold Cup winner ever, & the infamous "Bodyline Bowling" which the England cricket team deployed against those nasty Australians is what.......?