Tips for Tikay

[Sighmuns]

Liverpool's price tonight is laughable.

Currently:
Liverpool 2.14/2.16
Chelsea 3.6/3.65
Draw 3.75/3.8

Underpricing of Liverpool has occurred all season long, but was it nieve of me to think that people would learn from their mistakes?

Liverpool's home record has been even worse than their away record this year, time after time they've underperformed, Chelsea are finishing the season on a high and comprehensively outplayed Liverpool at the weekend. Sure Chelsea will rest some players, but Liverpool will too.

Edit: I'm laying Liverpool at 2.14, just based on the price, I think they should be closer to 2.6 or 2.7- will trade my position later if people realise the mispricing in-play and it goes sharply up.

[Karabiner]

I see that Norwich are now available @ 13/10 in a couple of spots for the weekend's game with Villa.

I'm quite tempted to press.

If you press, Ralph, that's good enough for me!

Let me know if you yield.......

I almost always get tempted to press if I bet something and the price drifts, I'm a bit obstinate innit.

I have thus far resisted as I am not a frequent/expert footie-punter.

[Sighmuns]

Yes, I'm laughing at myself just as hard as you're laughing at me. 3-0 halftime.

[horseplayer]

not laughing at all

you put your opinion up pre event which always means this could happen

ul

[Nico29]

I see that Norwich are now available @ 13/10 in a couple of spots for the weekend's game with Villa.

I'm quite tempted to press.

If you press, Ralph, that's good enough for me!

Let me know if you yield.......

I almost always get tempted to press if I bet something and the price drifts, I'm a bit obstinate innit.

I have thus far resisted as I am not a frequent/expert footie-punter.

Don't really get this as Norwich were 11/8-as advised and bet itt, and now they are 13/10.

Thus, the price has come in and not drifted.

[Sighmuns]

not laughing at all

you put your opinion up pre event which always means this could happen

ul

Appreciate that, ty. Still trying to work out if my thinking about the match was utterly wrong, or if i've been hit by variance. Tilt-regged for a couple of SCOOP events. I've got a long way to go as a Sports-gambler methinks .

[Karabiner]

I see that Norwich are now available @ 13/10 in a couple of spots for the weekend's game with Villa.

I'm quite tempted to press.

If you press, Ralph, that's good enough for me!

Let me know if you yield.......

I almost always get tempted to press if I bet something and the price drifts, I'm a bit obstinate innit.

I have thus far resisted as I am not a frequent/expert footie-punter.

Don't really get this as Norwich were 11/8-as advised and bet itt, and now they are 13/10.

Thus, the price has come in and not drifted.

You're absolutely correct, I must have had a junior senior moment.

[JaffaCake]

Junior senior moments aside, I still really like that Norwich bet. Appreciate the stats posted earlier but don't really think they have much bearing on this game, Villa's team is terrible, any semblence of half dedcent players are injured/ill, team don't really wanna play for their manager, Norwich will be on it celebrating a fine season in front of a bouncing home support, press press press teeks

[redarmi]

not laughing at all

you put your opinion up pre event which always means this could happen

ul

Appreciate that, ty. Still trying to work out if my thinking about the match was utterly wrong, or if i've been hit by variance. Tilt-regged for a couple of SCOOP events. I've got a long way to go as a Sports-gambler methinks .

I was going to post on this but didn't want to be negative aftertime and only saw the post after it was 3-0. I think if it was a normal season game your thinking was spot on.....they should have been 7/4 shots on the basis of their form in that kind of game but the combination of the revenge factor from the cup final and the fact that Chelsea really can't afford to lose any more players for the CL final meant they had very different motivation levels.  I actually thought Liverpool might have been a bet at 6/4+ but thought they were too short at the prices quoted but not sure it is one of those spots where I couldn't back the other team with counterfeit.

[Sighmuns]

not laughing at all

you put your opinion up pre event which always means this could happen

ul

Appreciate that, ty. Still trying to work out if my thinking about the match was utterly wrong, or if i've been hit by variance. Tilt-regged for a couple of SCOOP events. I've got a long way to go as a Sports-gambler methinks .

I was going to post on this but didn't want to be negative aftertime and only saw the post after it was 3-0. I think if it was a normal season game your thinking was spot on.....they should have been 7/4 shots on the basis of their form in that kind of game but the combination of the revenge factor from the cup final and the fact that Chelsea really can't afford to lose any more players for the CL final meant they had very different motivation levels. I actually thought Liverpool might have been a bet at 6/4+ but thought they were too short at the prices quoted but not sure it is one of those spots where I couldn't back the other team with counterfeit.

I initially had similar thoughts, then got caught up by the price and ended up laying it. My original post said 'I think the price is too short but I'm not getting involved, then it fell more so I put the bet on, edited my post and forgot all my original thoughts. Oh well, you live and learn.

And I'm still in the small SCOOP event that I regged for in frustration above. Who needs sleep anyway? Camel was on my last table for the last 3 hrs or so, I should have said hi really. Lets try to avoid the old, 'staying up all night for a $50 cash'.

[tikay]

Daily Report as @ 0630, Wednesday May 9th

LOSS on Month £359.43

Unsettled Bets £395

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=6

[tikay]

Daily Summary as @ 0650, Wednesday 9th May.

No action yesterday, except for a really weird banzai on Ben Crane to win "The Players". 

I mentioned, yesterday morning, last night's Liverpool - Chelsea encounter, describing it as "trappy", & I think we did well to swerve it, the result was always going to be hard to call.

Tonight's football is a tad less trappy, but still a tough one to call, with Blackpoool visiting Birmingham, the visitors holding a slender one goal advantage. The two teams finished the regular season with near-identical records, (home, 48 points v 46 points, away, 28 points v 29 points), both teams having 13 home wins & 7 away wins. Birmingham have home advantage, but this is a playoff in which Blackpool hold the lead.

Birmingham are odds on, Blackpool as high as 17/5.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/birmingham-v-blackpool/winner

Also on TV tonight is the Europa League, Atletico Madrid v Athletic Bilbao.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/europa-league/atletico-madrid-v-athl-bilbao/winner

[tikay]

"The Players" which starts tomorrow promises 4 days of wonderful TV, our interest is currently confined to a fun bet on Ben Crane.

It's a single venue event, as is The Masters, this one held at Sawgrass, Florida.

Quite interesting to read up on the event, which has its own Wiki page.....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TPC_at_Sawgrass

And if you play golf, you need bottle for this hole.......

[tikay]

Junior senior moments aside, I still really like that Norwich bet. Appreciate the stats posted earlier but don't really think they have much bearing on this game, Villa's team is terrible, any semblence of half dedcent players are injured/ill, team don't really wanna play for their manager, Norwich will be on it celebrating a fine season in front of a bouncing home support, press press press teeks

Our Basketball Corry advises "press", Karabiner had a junior senior moment, & Dazzy, who we so often get the wrong side of, opposes strongly. When will I ever learn?

We have a mini-press on Norwich, a further £50 with Paddy Power, this time @ 13/10, the original bet credited to bookiebasher, this one to Mr Kimber.

ON

Premier League Matches Norwich v Aston Villa
13-05-2012 15:00
Win-Draw-Win
Norwich @ 13/10
 
Your Bets Win
Single: Norwich @ 13/10
1 line at £50.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £50.00
Potential returns: £115.00
No: O/23146337/0000028
 

[bobby1]

Hi Tony, just a small Aussie rules bet for the weekend, i suggest 60 quid on sydney plus 4 1/2 v richmond at 5/6 with paddy power. Its a super tight game thats prob going to be around pick em on kick off so the 4 1/2 should be a nice start.