Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

I'm not sure that it will happen and later in the day I am expecting to lay the ties in those later games. I know Brad who does the golf for Ladbrokes and I know he thinks that punters get carried away and the prices are too short, but he has gone very short prices in anticipation of money.

 I have bet the last three on Betfair at slightly shorter than SportingBet.

 If you can get on with SportingBet this is one where you should break one of your rules and do multiples Tikay. These bets are very much related contingencies.

 If the USA have won the cup they could all agree to turn around at the same time and just shake hands. It will vry likely happen to all these matches or none.

 I would suggest a double Tiger and Stricker's matches and four trebles the last four.

 I know you'll say you are already on and you don't like multiples but this is different.

I logged on this morning to suggest this very multiple bet.  Think it is a decent opportunity for a very big score.

Incredible, the different views on this.

All good stuff, too, no mardy bums.

[redsimon]

Reckon you should all calm down a bit, I may be wrong but there doesn't seem to be any historical evidence to support the "sporting draw" theory.

Even if there was some, these seem the sort of players/people who will be desperate to win their matches (Seve on bag/dressed in blue for Euros, revenge/dominance for USA).

Very likely correct.

It is what it is, what will be will be.

Think it was worth a look though.

Off to see if there is any value in the UK's biggest local derby. Ish.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/nottingham-forest-v-derby/winner

If I was to bet on this I'd have a draw bet and go for over 2.5 goals as well.

[smashedagain]

Tips for Tikay. Please don't show that you called with ace high if you are wrong. You need to maintain the image you try so hard to portray.

[aaron1867]

Daily Report as @ 0945, Saturday September 29th

We made a loss of £180 yesterday.

9 bets completed, of which 8 lost……!

I’m not sure we did too much wrong, either. Lady Variance maybe had PMT, & gave us a bit of grief, but it happens, & it swings both ways.

Our losses were…..

Paul Lawrie, Ryder Cup Top European, £10

Brighton, football, £100

Barnsley, football, £50

St Helens, RL, £35

St Helens, RL, £5

Huddersfield, football, £20

New Zealand, T20WC, £20

Hull, football, £20

And our sole winner?

Walsall, £80. (Tighty).

That £80 came in VERY handy.

Really, my head is not in the sand, but I think all the bets were good value, we beat the price, & they looked decent. Just one of those days. Unfortunately, we look like facing a good deal more wrong ‘uns today, too, & we don’t have much by way of compensation to balance it out. Maybe some NFL bets will arrive & will get us out of it, or Doobsy's clever ruse will work.

No point in having a post-mortem, or working through it bet by bet, I genuinely think it was one of those days.

Tomorrow will be a better day. Probably. We just have to get through today first.

Click to see full-size image.

The three bets I recommended all started significantly shorter than the prices we backed them at:

Brighton 11/10 > 5/6
Barnsley 17/10 > 11/8
Huddersfield 23/20 > 1/1

Unfortunately as yesterday's results proved, you can't eat value.

They were all excellent bets, they all lost.

Welcome to gambling for a living.

Camel, I ended up getting 8/11 on Brighton, so 5/6 now looks massuve lol.

Not a good day for thread, but I think all information was good. Disappointed Fred didn't get on Wolves as I said, but I think when I posted that one, think Fred was overcome with many tips.

Come on next weekend, already!

[nirvana]

I'll eat a burger if the Americans go against their whole upbringing and culture which will be to win and crush in every game.

That said, I'm on for a £1.00

[bobby1]

In the golf I think the teams have been asked to keep the games true heats until the end now, mostly for TV and integrity of the event reasons. There will probably be some generous concessions in those late games so the tie prices are deffo affected but the days of mass handshaking and walking in to celebrate seem to be in the past.if you want to bet them tho you should be having multiples if you can, if they don't allow it then you still have the chance that there will be natural ties anyway, if they do then it could happen in all of them still out on the course so just file it under related contingency value as you will lose only small or win big.


@bad beat, Brad was in the RP pullout pre tourney saying he was looking forward to laying punters vastly under the true odds on the ties in the late singles matches as they were always backed blindly. He has then put them in stone bottom price so he is highly unlikely to lay them, it makes no sense to think something is badly under priced and then shorten it so far that you won't lay it when you were half mocking the punters for over reacting in the first place.

[Bad Beat]

 I noticed that Phil. I haven't spoken to him for a few weeks but I guess he is thinking I'll get Stricker, Kuchar and Tiger in the book early and then I will lay the ties at the short prices later when the score on the board is 11-7.

[Bad Beat]

 On a different subject does anyone have any views on Miami at Arizona?

 Arizona are having a great run, playing good defence and covering most weeks and Miami are Miami. The big syndicates generally prefer underdogs to favourites and they often take teams getting 7 points or more, so I expected them to go with Miami if they did anything.

 What they would usually do though is wait for the public to bet an obvious favourite, let the line get to 7.5 and then play. When they rush for a dog here it's usually because they know something that hasn't come out yet (weather, injury etc).

 Early in the week the game moved to 6.5 then 6. Yesterday it went to 5.5 and this morning to 4.5 (5 is a dead number so not a big move there).

 This is not a big high-profile high turnover game.

 What are the syndicates seeing here?

[tikay]

For the record......

Sporting Bet have now clarified the position on those last 4 games.

I attempted a Lucky 15, & this came up.....

Sorry, you cannot place a multiple including these related events.

[TightEnd]

General distrust of Arizona, "false record", not a lot of offense. Expecting them to mean revert, essentially, and the public isn't focussed on the game so there's no punter wedge driving the price higher.


Neil, I want to recommend a big play on Oakland +7 versus Denver. Can't quite bring myself to do it

(divisional game, big rivals, Denver missing some pieces on defense, McFadden can run all day, Manning generally over-bet and a huge household name that will be backed)

thoughts?

[kukushkin88]

On a different subject does anyone have any views on Miami at Arizona?

 Arizona are having a great run, playing good defence and covering most weeks and Miami are Miami. The big syndicates generally prefer underdogs to favourites and they often take teams getting 7 points or more, so I expected them to go with Miami if they did anything.

 What they would usually do though is wait for the public to bet an obvious favourite, let the line get to 7.5 and then play. When they rush for a dog here it's usually because they know something that hasn't come out yet (weather, injury etc).

 Early in the week the game moved to 6.5 then 6. Yesterday it went to 5.5 and this morning to 4.5 (5 is a dead number so not a big move there).

 This is not a big high-profile high turnover game.

 What are the syndicates seeing here?

I thinks it was based at least partly on Bush's knee, they knew before the masses that he was good to go. No bet game for me but I marginally prefer the Arizona side of it.

[Bad Beat]

 I have no one stand-out play this week Richard. I have a shortlist of four and I'm hoping one will stand out on further investigation.

 One of my four is Oakland.

 One thing I thought was interesting was that it seems to be assumed that he is now back to being one of the top QBs on the back of a high-profile win. I would have thought the jusry could still be out on whether he is totally there yet. He has obv looked very good but he did have some pretty serious surgery (more than one op).

 Cantor opened this game 7.5 as a kind of test to see if there would be any Oakland money at any price. The syndicates came in early which told them all they needed and the public bet the new line of 6 on Monday up to 7 (5/6 Oakland) now. I think the sharper books will not go back to 7.5 today just on weight6 of public money and so I would probably take +7 now if I was playing.

[Bad Beat]

 Thanks Kukush. I think that must be it. I bet the under in this game (under 39.5) the other day and yesterday it jumped to 40.5. Any ideas there?

[hector62]

Mr Tikay. Yesterday I gave you 3 losing bets and much woe has set in. You also appear to have banned me from cake so my ennui is overwhelming. Only another good performance from our Australian smitters has kept me going. I will update the scores when the afternoon match is complete.

Bozo

[redsimon]

For the record......

Sporting Bet have now clarified the position on those last 4 games.

I attempted a Lucky 15, & this came up.....

Sorry, you cannot place a multiple including these related events.

skybet allowed a lucky 15 on them. In what way are they deemed related?