Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

That one is on Sunday Tony. I do fancy a bet tonight though as it happens...

Bugger.

Shoot me now, put me down, I'm getting dangerous.

[Tal]

I think we might just have drawn with the worst team in the competition...

Carrying Tom Huddleston is no easy task these days, sadly, but dem's da breaks; the swings and swongs and other Tikayisms.

Hopefully we take it out on Villa (else I am fully aware that work and social life will be significantly less pleasant!). How we haven't learned that we need to score twice to win and sitting back on a one goal lead is a terrible strategy is beyond me.

They were certainly pretty bad, but you'll be happier tonight thn Liverpool, I fancy.

I think you'll batter tonight's villains when you play them at home, I really do. An over 2.5 nap that night.

Sincerely hope you're right. Maribor lost to Birmingham last season and they beat Panathanaikos 3-0.

Cloche hats are unbecoming on a gentleman. Even a French one.

I imagine Karabiner's dream casino would have a cloche over the flop and, when the pre-flop action had been completed, the dealer would simply pull it away with a "Voilà!"

[tikay]

That one is on Sunday Tony. I do fancy a bet tonight though as it happens...

Well I'm afraid I shall be retiring for the night very shortly, so I MAY miss it. Though I have a hunch I know what the bet may be..... (I am on it already!).

I'll be up for half an hour or so, if is arrives by then, I'll get it on, if not, I'm afraid I'll be with Uncle Ned.

Odd night for me, Thursday. The Cleaner comes on Friday, & she is OCD clean, neat & tidy. Leaves me little notes hinting that there was a stain on a tea towel, or a dirty dish in the sink, so I have to Spring-clean the house every Thursday night in readiness. OK, off for the pre-cleaner clean.

[Bad Beat]

 The total in tonight's Arizona vs St Louis match opened at 38.5. It moved up to 39 on Monday afternoon despite one or two smaller syndicates moving to back the under 38.5 immediately as the line went up.

 It is quite odd for the US sports syndicates to bet early when they are going in the opposite direction that they expect the public to bet.

 Generally speaking the public bet favourite and over, and in the NFL they account for 70% of the money. In big TV games (Monday night is biggest, followed by Sunday's late game, then Thursday), they can account for 80% of the money.

 Therefore you would expect the syndicates to wait until the day of the game, (when most of the public bet), let the total get bet up and go under late on, maybe when the key number of 40 is reached. The oddsmakers know all this when they put up their original number. They will add 1 or 2 points to totals on TV games like this, taking care to move down quickly if they see wiseguy money and trying to hovver under the key numbers.

 This one got to 39.5 overnight where it was all day but now it has come down to 39.

 You can bet under 39.5 at 10/11 with WillHill and you can get 1.95 on Betfair.

 I've had a pretty big bet.

[aaron1867]

That one is on Sunday Tony. I do fancy a bet tonight though as it happens...

Waiting . . .

Incidentally, anyone think Man City are a lay on Saturday @ 1.3 on Betfair or are we better just having a bet on Sunderland/Draw.  

I haven't been impressed with what I have saw of Man City thus far, and one thing you can lay your life on is Martin O'Neill setting his team upto be very difficult to beat.  Sunderland also have the form striker in the EPL, if it weren't for there goalkeeper in games I have watched they would have fared far worse.  

Not sure, but I think it's been a season so far where it's showing decline of the top 4, those just out of it are showing massive potential for next year & years after.

With regards to bet, I am not going to bother Googling, but I am sure Sunderland haven't done that bad against Man City in recent years?

[tikay]

The total in tonight's Arizona vs St Louis match opened at 38.5. It moved up to 39 on Monday afternoon despite one or two smaller syndicates moving to back the under 38.5 immediately as the line went up.

 It is quite odd for the US sports syndicates to bet early when they are going in the opposite direction that they expect the public to bet.

 Generally speaking the public bet favourite and over, and in the NFL they account for 70% of the money. In big TV games (Monday night is biggest, followed by Sunday's late game, then Thursday), they can account for 80% of the money.

 Therefore you would expect the syndicates to wait until the day of the game, (when most of the public bet), let the total get bet up and go under late on, maybe when the key number of 40 is reached. The oddsmakers know all this when they put up their original number. They will add 1 or 2 points to totals on TV games like this, taking care to move down quickly if they see wiseguy money and trying to hovver under the key numbers.

 This one got to 39.5 overnight where it was all day but now it has come down to 39.

 You can bet under 39.5 at 10/11 with WillHill and you can get 1.95 on Betfair.

 I've had a pretty big bet.

Thanks Neil.

I'm already invested on that for myself, so I'm just going to have a medium-modest bet for Fred.

We have £55 @ 10/11 with William Hill, UNDER 39.5, Cards v Rams.

ON

 

04 Oct 12 / 22:38  Single 1   Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams  –  Total Points Under @ 10/11 – £55.00 O/0457483/0000109/F 

[AceHighSuited]

The total in tonight's Arizona vs St Louis match opened at 38.5. It moved up to 39 on Monday afternoon despite one or two smaller syndicates moving to back the under 38.5 immediately as the line went up.

 It is quite odd for the US sports syndicates to bet early when they are going in the opposite direction that they expect the public to bet.

 Generally speaking the public bet favourite and over, and in the NFL they account for 70% of the money. In big TV games (Monday night is biggest, followed by Sunday's late game, then Thursday), they can account for 80% of the money.

 Therefore you would expect the syndicates to wait until the day of the game, (when most of the public bet), let the total get bet up and go under late on, maybe when the key number of 40 is reached. The oddsmakers know all this when they put up their original number. They will add 1 or 2 points to totals on TV games like this, taking care to move down quickly if they see wiseguy money and trying to hovver under the key numbers.

 This one got to 39.5 overnight where it was all day but now it has come down to 39.

 You can bet under 39.5 at 10/11 with WillHill and you can get 1.95 on Betfair.

 I've had a pretty big bet.

On. Gl us. 

[tikay]

Very quiet day everywhere today, Fred included, but tonight, we have an NFL bet, Eagles @ Steelers, UNDER 44 points.

We only have £33 @ 10/11, but £30 would do nicely. 

Ignore this idiot. He gets confused easily.

[tikay]

Cardinals 3, Rams 17.

 

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 0640, Friday October 5th

LOSS on Month = £43.00


Unsettled Bets  - £432.70



https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=13

[tikay]

Daily Report as @ 0730, Friday October 5th

We made a profit of £50 yesterday.

Only new bet was placed & completed, & it won. Lovely. 

Our winner was UNDER 39.5 points in the Cardinals v Rams affair (£55 @ 10/11 = £50 profit, Neil Channing), and maybe I was a bit nitty with just risking £55 when Neil mentioned that he had bet it big. Never mind, we got a nice £50.   

We had action elsewhere, too, with T20WC & Golf bets.

In the T20WC, the remainder of our bets live on, but mostly only by the slimmest of threads, though the Aussie Sixes bet is still in robust health. Today will be crucial for that.

In golf, we have Cabrera-Bello in the Dunhill Links thing, but I’m afraid he had a woeful day, & finished Round One 2 over in joint 140th place, with the leader at -12. Ever the optimist, but that may be a stretch of the imagination, unless he can conjure up a Ryder-Cup style comeback. Maybe he was distracted by his playing partner, one Paula Gleacher.

Paula is married to the 70 year old uber-rich Eric Gleacher, very much a mover & shaker on Wall Street during the heady days. He managed the neat trick of selling his Investment Banking Business to Nat West for a fortune, then buying it back 3 years later at a fraction of the price. Nice.

We had no Europa League interest on what was a disappointing night for the English Teams, with Spurs failing to beat a dreadful Greek outfit, & Liverpool losing at home to some Italians. Newcastle had a walk in the park v Bordeaux, though we must assume that French footballers are like their poker players, all totally useless clowns. Possibly.

Sadly, the Chopra story dominated sports pages.

Chopra recently said….

"In my first season at Cardiff I had a gambling debt from when I was at Newcastle. I had to leave Cardiff and sign for another team to pay that debt off. I have probably lost between £1.5m and £2m on gambling."

The Daily Telegraph also reported that…..

In an attempt to help him Ipswich have also at times paid his monthly wages directly to those he owes significant amounts. when he signed for the club in June 2011 Ipswich paid him £250,000 to help settle his debts

It’s a relief to know that it was horseracing & not football where this “fixing” arose, and we are blessed to have the ever vigilant & oh-so-sharp FA keeping a close eye on these things, so that rigged football games can & will never happen.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

[Snowball]

Anyone got any thoughts on the total sixes in the 20/20 today?
Stan James go 8/13 on under 11.5, even with Gayle, Watson and co I find it hard to see them get near double figures on this pitch??

[hector62]

Morning Mr Tikay.

I have decided to add yet another ritual. I currently have the Tikay winning bet cake celebration, the poker MTT winning celebratory dance and to them I am  adding the winning money in my sleep burst of song. Not decided on a song yet but will mull it over. An excellent NFL tip there TYVM Mr Bad Beat.

It is a huge day for our 6's bet. If you read Mr Tightends post in this thread yesterday you will have seen that he alluded to a possibility of a hedge bet on the Windies today. Have you given it any thought and if so what is your plan? Will it be some ummmmm and ahhhhing or decisive action?

[hector62]

Anyone got any thoughts on the total sixes in the 20/20 today?
Stan James go 8/13 on under 11.5, even with Gayle, Watson and co I find it hard to see them get near double figures on this pitch??

I have seen some impossible bets to call and IMO this is up there with the best of them. Whilst the pitch is low and slow, against that is the fact that these 2 teams do not have defensive play in their DNA. Both bowling attacks, aside from Narine, are likely to be treated with little caution and neither team has an abundance of spinners. In the group match between these sides the makeup was heading for over 20 6's, but it was on a faster, bouncier pitch.

In short- I haven't got a scooby.

[mondatoo]

I think 4/5 is a good price for over 2.5 goals in Newcastle v Man Utd game. We are expected to have both Taylor and Collocini missing on Sunday, Williamson will play and isn't good enough for this level and with Man U having Rooney & RVP available I'd expect goals. Also Man U are having there own defensive problems and we aren't struggling for goals ourselves.

4/5 Bluesq & Coral.

Also think Man U are a good bet at just under evens due to our above defensive problems.