Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Morning Mr T.

Rugby Union Connacht v Biarritz tonight.

Betting against Irish teams at home is only beaten in stupidity by betting on French teams away from home. Biarritz have the better players but it will be cold, wet, and windy and they will not be happy bunnies there. Comparing the results of the sides so far makes it a pretty even call. Both teams have a chance of qualifying but this one and next weeks rematch will decide it. In this competition last year Biarritz lost away to the Italian side Treviso so it is not at all unusual for them to underperform away from home.

I can't really make Connacht a bigger price than 6 or 7/4 but we can back them at 5/2.

Suggest £20 @ 5/2 with Sporting bet.

P.S reread and absorb the bolded word Mr T.

Thanks hector.

Is that tonight tonight, or any tonight?

PS - Seriously, that is EXACTLY what I need.

I hereby find you GIUILTY of knowing your customer.

[tikay]

Morning Mr T.

Rugby Union Connacht v Biarritz tonight.

Betting against Irish teams at home is only beaten in stupidity by betting on French teams away from home. Biarritz have the better players but it will be cold, wet, and windy and they will not be happy bunnies there. Comparing the results of the sides so far makes it a pretty even call. Both teams have a chance of qualifying but this one and next weeks rematch will decide it. In this competition last year Biarritz lost away to the Italian side Treviso so it is not at all unusual for them to underperform away from home.

I can't really make Connacht a bigger price than 6 or 7/4 but we can back them at 5/2.

Suggest £20 @ 5/2 with Sporting bet.

P.S reread and absorb the bolded word Mr T.

Confirm reread & absorbed.

We have £20 @ 5/2, Sporting Bet, Connacht v Biarritz.


Is that THE Biarritz? Like, the posh place? Did you know that Biarritz has a Museum of Chocolate?

ON


Bet Type: Single
Connacht v Biarritz Match Prices
Connacht 5/2
Rugby Possible Payout 70.00 GBP
1 bet @
20.00 GBP 
Total Cost: 20.00 GBP Total Possible Payout
(inc. stake): 70.00 GBP

[tikay]

I have some avaiability issues this weekend.

I'll work through todays suggstions when I get home (not expected to be before 3am) or before 10am tomorrow morning.

It is unlikely that I'll be Online much at all after 10am tomorrow until Sunday morning, so if you have anything for tomorrow (Saturday) please post early.

[aaron1867]

Bristol C play at Sheff Wed tomorrow

Sheff Wed have 1 clean sheat in 20 games

Bristol C have no clean sheets in 20 games

Two poor sides, though Bristol C do score goals recently. Combined negative goal difference this year is -27


Both teams to score has been a complete bonanza this season in the Championship, as we have discussed on here

I am thinking that BTTS at 8/13 for this game might be a genuine 1/2 shot

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/sheffield-wednesday-v-bristol-city/both-teams-to-score




In League One I continue to oppose a poor Carlisle side sliding towards the bottom 4 and threatening our Walsall slide

Tomorrow they host Sheff U, who concede few goals away, only 7 in 10 games and are needing a result after a loss last league game took them out of the top two

Carlisle have lost 6 at home, conceding 25 goals in the 10 home games

Sheff U are 13/10 in two spots and to my mind are odds on at Carlisle

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/carlisle-v-sheffield-utd/winner

Is the first bet not contradictory of what you said about my bet when wednesday was playing Cardiff? Exactly the same prices, but not wanting to get on short odds?!

Also, do not think Sheff Utd bet is a good one based on current form, imo. Plus they really do not score many goals.

[Karabiner]

Morning Mr T.

Rugby Union Connacht v Biarritz tonight.

Betting against Irish teams at home is only beaten in stupidity by betting on French teams away from home. Biarritz have the better players but it will be cold, wet, and windy and they will not be happy bunnies there. Comparing the results of the sides so far makes it a pretty even call. Both teams have a chance of qualifying but this one and next weeks rematch will decide it. In this competition last year Biarritz lost away to the Italian side Treviso so it is not at all unusual for them to underperform away from home.

I can't really make Connacht a bigger price than 6 or 7/4 but we can back them at 5/2.

Suggest £20 @ 5/2 with Sporting bet.

P.S reread and absorb the bolded word Mr T.

Confirm reread & absorbed.

We have £20 @ 5/2, Sporting Bet, Connacht v Biarritz.


Is that THE Biarritz? Like, the posh place? Did you know that Biarritz has a Museum of Chocolate?

ON


Bet Type: Single
Connacht v Biarritz Match Prices
Connacht 5/2
Rugby Possible Payout 70.00 GBP
1 bet @
20.00 GBP 
Total Cost: 20.00 GBP Total Possible Payout
(inc. stake): 70.00 GBP

When you say that Biarritz is"the posh place" are you not referring also to the heart of Basque country, even their capital?

If that is actually the case then all of the players might well be warlike Basques as opposed to Southern French softies unless the French Basques take their Basqueness less seriously than ther Spanish neighbours.

On obviously.

[Tal]

Carlsen beats Polgar. Good.

Kramnik is in the middle of a tough endgame that could go one of three ways. Good.

Adams beats Anand after what appears to have been a blunder by the World Champion. Doesn't affect our bet but we are patriotic so GOOD!

McShane has a material advantage against Jones but it looks like a tough one to win. As predicted, a bit mad but likely a draw IMO.

Follow the games live here:

http://live2.londonchessclassic.com/2012/live2.mosaic.htm

[Ant040689]

BTTS
Wigan - Qpr 8/11
Crystal Palace - Blackpool 8/13
Sheff Wed - Bristol City 8/13
Fleetwood - Southend 8/11
Northampton - Cheltenham 8/13
Rochdale - Exeter 4/6
Yeovil - Notts County 4/6

Get 4/5 per on Betfred Goals Galore BONUS coupon.

Get 50/1 with Fred for all 7, 35/1 best price elsewhere using oddschecker multiples thing. Perm it however you want with whatever stakes.

Credit to bookiebasher as well if it goes on

We haven't conceded in our last 4 matches at home and for the Millwall one for our fifth, it didn't look likely they were scoring until we gave them a penno. If it is only for a pound then fair play, otherwise I would avoid. Just to let you guys know though I am not on the Palace win for a change, as I am not sure what Blackpool are about and if I am not confident I don't back it. As well I am not quite sure how the Holloway prediciment facing his old club will feature, so I am avoiding it.

[Tal]

Kramnik draws. McShane wins.

Fred has had a good day, at least in the context of the London Chess Classic.

We need the South Frenchies to stop pronouncing extra syllables in every word and concentrate on their rugby for Fred to have a good day overall.

[TightEnd]

Bristol C play at Sheff Wed tomorrow

Sheff Wed have 1 clean sheat in 20 games

Bristol C have no clean sheets in 20 games

Two poor sides, though Bristol C do score goals recently. Combined negative goal difference this year is -27


Both teams to score has been a complete bonanza this season in the Championship, as we have discussed on here

I am thinking that BTTS at 8/13 for this game might be a genuine 1/2 shot

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/sheffield-wednesday-v-bristol-city/both-teams-to-score




In League One I continue to oppose a poor Carlisle side sliding towards the bottom 4 and threatening our Walsall slide

Tomorrow they host Sheff U, who concede few goals away, only 7 in 10 games and are needing a result after a loss last league game took them out of the top two

Carlisle have lost 6 at home, conceding 25 goals in the 10 home games

Sheff U are 13/10 in two spots and to my mind are odds on at Carlisle

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/carlisle-v-sheffield-utd/winner

Is the first bet not contradictory of what you said about my bet when wednesday was playing Cardiff? Exactly the same prices, but not wanting to get on short odds?!

Also, do not think Sheff Utd bet is a good one based on current form, imo. Plus they really do not score many goals.

I'm not picking a team to win at 8/13, its both teams to score. Completely different. No idea who is going to win the match and wouldn't bet many teams to beat anohtser in the Championship at odds on

I think Sheff U is a wonderful bet. All about views :-)

[rfgqqabc]

Ok I've done that... I've just put a stake into all the boxes: accumulator, trebles, four-folds, five-folds, six-folds.

Is that the right way to do it, and is this a good bet? It sure adds up quickly with all those trebles!!

WAIT

Firstly, betvictor are offering 29/20 BTTS fails on the Crystal Palace vs Blackpool match.

This is significantly out of line.  Assuming it isn't a palpable error, you are getting close to 6/4 on what is a best price 13/10 elsewhere.  It looks too close to the right price to be a palp though?

Secondly, the original post is ignoring the overround.

I calculated the overround for each match and adjusted the best prices accordingly (ignoring the 29/20 rick above and assuming best price was 13/10) and got 47/1 rather than 35/1.

So 50/1 is still value, just not as much as people think and not nearly as good as just backing the 29/20 chance above.

BUT, I have assumed that there is no bias in the overround.  I am not entirely convinced on this, as I assume the natural tendency is to punt the BTTS.  If I was a bookie I would reflect this tendency in my odds setting.

If the above holds it is likely there is no value in the 7 fold at all.

Could you explain overround more clearly, a little unsure as to what you mean? Think your saying they are offering markets of 107% so even though its 8/11 and your getting 4/5 its probably only break even anyway? Would that be correct?

I've found BTTS to be profitable, and i know others have, specifically with the Betfred coupon, I've never touched another coupon. Really interested to say what Redarmi says on the matter, tried a few things he gave me to look at but its been impossible to do well with everything else in my life. Free time in a week though!

Whatever you assumed to calculate the 35/1 was using the bookies odds was assuming that 4/6 was the correct price.  But for example, if the best price of the BTTS to fail is 4/5 then there is an overound of just over 5%.  4/6 is equivalent to 60% chance of winning, but if we assume that overround is the same proportion of each price then the real price should be something like 57% (60/1.05).

When I did this calculation for all 7 prices and multiplied them together I no longer got 36/1, but got 47/1 instead.  

You may well be winning by following this system, but if you have, it isn't for the reason you explained here.

I'm not claiming to be anything more than an interested party that has made a few quid (variance easily), it made sense to me this way. I did a few combinations focusing on the 8/13 shots, then a few shots at glory. Worst case its a sweat. I know a lot more qualified people have made money on this, and I'd be surprised if i was a million miles off their selections.

edit: Yeah, i got the overround thing right but your explanation blows my rambled thoughts away.

[tikay]

Half time.

Connacht  10 Chocolate Museum 9

[hector62]

Connacht  10  Biarritz  9  H/T

[The Camel]

Anyone know the half time score?

[tikay]

^^^^

I know that after 73 minutes, the good guys lead 16-9.

[Tal]

Today's chess report is here:

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=58441.msg1679201#msg1679201