Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

In the "Greening" debate, reds, & then Neil, both mentioned "redding out".

Most of my punting was before Exchanges were even thought of, & if we did a bad bet, that was it, gone. Now, it seems, we can cut our losses.

We bet in very small sums here, but it still interests me from a good husbandry standpoint.

We have a few bets which have turned sour, or are in Intensive Care, can or should we apply that "redding" logic here, & how do the maths work?

Let us use our bet on Walsall to be Relegated as an example.

We bet £60 @ 5/2 they would be relegated.

They are currently 33/1 to go down with 2 bookies. The Betfair market is very thin, but they can be backed to go down at about 19. The "lay" is quoted as 34, but almost no liquidity.

Personally, I would not now back them to go down even at 33/1, so mentally, I have written off the £60.

Is there a way we can take a loss now to mitigate some of the anticipated £60 loss?

Use short words please.....

[doubleup]

Who will have matched that bet?

 I can tell you who. A racing professional whoo is at the course with a seven second advantage over the ATR pictures, a guy who is paying premium charge and winning every year at racing, who has the opinion that this horse is greater than 50% to win the race.

 Should we be getting into bets with him. It's an exchange, you can't pick who you match against, but you can effect it a little. If you play in premier soccor matches at kick-off you are more likely to be matching versus amateurs than pros (you may be playing in a market that is "correct" but that's another thing).

 Guaranteed though if you play on racing in-running you are taking way the worst of it. If you are doing it blind by putting in lays , because you just can't take it when they take the wrong course, fall at the last etc, you are 100% paying a large charge for all that extra sleep you get at nights.

If oncourse guys are so good why is blind laying at 1.01 profitable?*

Back to lay blind is a perfectly valid strategy if you think a horse will travel well and not find much.  As is looking to back at higher than sp for a horse that goes through a flat spot.

Doing it just to stop variance is obv bad.


*NB for it to be profitable you have to be near the front of the queue to be matched



 

[TightEnd]

Pitch and conditions

The Jharkhand State Cricket Association stadium has hosted just two first-class games, both of which were drawn. The curator has been quoted as saying he expects the side batting first to make around 350 on the "sporting wicket". Winter has started to wind down in the east of the country, with Jharkhand experiencing milder weather over the past few days.

http://www.espncricinfo.com/india-v-england-2012/content/current/story/601279.html


350?! Not a particularly sporting wicket for the bowlers then!

Note also the structural change I have been banging on about with only 4 allowed outside the circle for the fielding side, not 5. Makes it very difficult to defend in the later stages

We can look at total runs, we can look at first innings totals when those prices come up

[TightEnd]

Taken at 2.30pm, with 5 hours til kick off

Its on Sky, and Sky games are often played in circumstances that others wouldn't be

Click to see full-size image.

Unders? a lottery?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/leicester-v-middlesbrough/over-under-2.5

not sure under 2.5 should be odds against.....


Ipswich 2-0 Leicester 2010-11 on Sky

Click to see full-size image.

[redarmi]

I was looking at this game with a view to backing Boro +1 @ 4/5ish.  That bet and the unders are clearly correlated.  I generally dont like betting on Boro games but I dont really see how Leicester can be much shorter than Evens here.  Boro have had a few injuries lately but are largely over them and the return of Woodgate, Emnes and McEachran in particular should benefit them.  I think Boro are a bit of value.....any thoughts Tighty?

[TightEnd]

I was looking at this game with a view to backing Boro +1 @ 4/5ish.  That bet and the unders are clearly correlated.  I generally dont like betting on Boro games but I dont really see how Leicester can be much shorter than Evens here.  Boro have had a few injuries lately but are largely over them and the return of Woodgate, Emnes and McEachran in particular should benefit them.  I think Boro are a bit of value.....any thoughts Tighty?

Leicester are at full strength and have been in great form against lesser teams, so would expect no value in their price whatsoever

This isn't meant to sound arrogant, as Middlesborough are talented and Mowbray sets them up to be very solid away from home, but the conditions have to be a huge leveller don't they?

Not sure our flair players in snoods and gloves will fancy it that much

0-0,1-1 or 1-0 type of scores for me.

[atdc21]

 I hedged if I had a cash-flow issue (some bets were credit, others cash), and if a horse I had laid drifted to a bigger price.

Hi again BADBEAT, this to me seems the same as backing and laying to cut loses/show profit .
I really think everyone should do what they want to work for them, like u saying backing to lay is stupid, its not stupid if that person makes aliving from it, he might say standing in the rain at a northern race meeting for 6 hours taking fivers is stupid, but some people make a living doing that.

would you agree in general that the bigger punters let it ride,and the smaller guys bet/lay like the old time 'fiddlers'?

[redarmi]

I was looking at this game with a view to backing Boro +1 @ 4/5ish.  That bet and the unders are clearly correlated.  I generally dont like betting on Boro games but I dont really see how Leicester can be much shorter than Evens here.  Boro have had a few injuries lately but are largely over them and the return of Woodgate, Emnes and McEachran in particular should benefit them.  I think Boro are a bit of value.....any thoughts Tighty?

Leicester are at full strength and have been in great form against lesser teams, so would expect no value in their price whatsoever

This isn't meant to sound arrogant, as Middlesborough are talented and Mowbray sets them up to be very solid away from home, but the conditions have to be a huge leveller don't they?

Not sure our flair players in snoods and gloves will fancy it that much

0-0,1-1 or 1-0 type of scores for me.

Bit confused.  Wouldn't the bolded bit mean Boro were value +1?

[TightEnd]

Yes I was agreeing with you.

[Tal]

Have to say I find it hard to argue with the basic principle that you should only green out if the new price is too short. Otherwise, you're losing some of the value you had when you made the bet.

If you green at or near the correct (shorter) price, you are effectively lowering the stake you placed on the original bet, so why would you do that unless you had a change in personal circumstances? If you had £50 to bet on a 20-1 shot, when it is now 5-1, why would you effectively decide to change that stake to £30?

If it should really be a 10-1 shot, you're doing the right thing by "betting" on it not to happen.

To me, the rest of this debate is like reading PHA. Someone says "I think this is the best play" and someone else saying "I'd check the turn for pot control". No reason why either is right all the time and both could make money. Us ice creams read and go "well I enjoy the game and want to make good decisions and either seems OK as long as you understand why"

If the debate is which play is the perfect, optimal decision in betting, I'll leave that to those whose house and home rely on it, as fascinating as I find the debate nevertheless.

[atdc21]

Hi TAL
yes, everyone should do WHAT SUITS THEM.
some people like to chop poker tourneys,others never deal.
some times when we play a poker hand we 're evaluate ' the holding thru the streets,we start off raisng with aces and fold on the river, sometimes we can reevaluate a bet, its basically up to the individual.
i can see badbeat point that each bet should be in itself value, but so should the overall bet, anyway lets try and get some winners.............oh sh1t theres no racing

[TightEnd]

A disconsolate Judd Trump gets the (copyright Karabiner) tightform squiggle for barely bothering to try and beaten 6-1 by Dott

Now come on Selby, and a nod to ruholding who put up Murphy at 10-1 who beat Higgins and is in the semi's

[BigAdz]

As someone that greens out(or attempts to) on nearly every bet, I see it from a different slant.

If I back a horse eg £50 @ 10-1, I will always lay the horse back at even money for my £50. It is effectively my way of backing each way, or easing that sinking feeling of looking a winner then getting nabbed on the line.

Invariably, not always, but if my horse looks anything like winning at any stage, it can easily go evs. This way even when the horse doesnt win I get my stake back. If it wins I effectively get my horse at a point lower, but tbh, I really dont think that I can honestly say if the horse was value at 10s, its not a bet at , if you get my drift.

Since I have used this approach, the P&L has looked a lot healthier. That said, I rarely back favourites or short prices so my methodology maybe works differently.

[TightEnd]

The view at 4pm

Click to see full-size image.

[Chompy]

As someone that greens out(or attempts to) on nearly every bet, I see it from a different slant.

If I back a horse eg £50 @ 10-1, I will always lay the horse back at even money for my £50. It is effectively my way of backing each way, or easing that sinking feeling of looking a winner then getting nabbed on the line.

Invariably, not always, but if my horse looks anything like winning at any stage, it can easily go evs. This way even when the horse doesnt win I get my stake back. If it wins I effectively get my horse at a point lower, but tbh, I really dont think that I can honestly say if the horse was value at 10s, its not a bet at , if you get my drift.

Since I have used this approach, the P&L has looked a lot healthier. That said, I rarely back favourites or short prices so my methodology maybe works differently.

Yuh, agree with this but it may be exclusive to horseracing, in which the swings are quicker and bigger than in other sports. I always used to do the same. If you back at 6, why not lay a chunk back at 1.3? It's sport after all and nothing is set in stone.

I don't have any figures but would be surprised if backing every horse that hits 1.3 IR to level stakes would show a profit in the long term. A lot of horses go odds-on IR and don't win.

Horseys IR should be viewed differently to all other sports imo.