Tips for Tikay

[BigAdz]

Galatasaray 250-1 william hill or coral champions league

1/2 1, 2

just signed drogba to go with sneijder

can they win it? probably not can they now beat schalke (possibly)

with those two to add to the european experience 250-1 just looks a smidgen big

worth £2 eway

Is Wes eligible?

yes

If Leeds can beat 5pur2, then I have seen worse punts at that price, it shall have a couple of my shekels.

[Tal]

Galatasaray 250-1 william hill or coral champions league

1/2 1, 2

just signed drogba to go with sneijder

can they win it? probably not can they now beat schalke (possibly)

with those two to add to the european experience 250-1 just looks a smidgen big

worth £2 eway

Is Wes eligible?

yes

If Leeds can beat 5pur2, then I have seen worse punts at that price, it shall have a couple of my shekels.

Jeez, BigAdz. How many people ITT are you trying to fall out with in one day?

[BigAdz]

Sorry. Time of the month....

[Tal]

Sorry. Time of the month....

Ah yes of course. January transfer window.

Fortunately your lads have a good record in the cup this year against lower league West Yorkshire teams, so I will have to accept your criticism.

[TL900]

I refuse to bet on Liverpool to do well/win anything so am not on them to win the cup but massive  for Fred thus far.

[TL900]

I refuse to bet on Liverpool to do well/win anything so am not on them to win the cup but massive  for Fred thus far.

gulp.

[Tal]

I refuse to bet on Liverpool to do well/win anything so am not on them to win the cup but massive  for Fred thus far.

gulp.

I suspect Kinboshi's beginning to regret his post in the Leeds thread about now.

[tikay]

May I suggest betting the unders on tomorrow's farce of an American Football game, aka The Pro Bowl.  For those new to the NFL, this is the annual end of season NFC vs AFC game which takes place in Hawaii and is generally a bit of a jolly boys outing for those selected and their families (who still get paid $25k, I think, to participate).  It used to follow the Superbowl, but now fills in the gap in the week before, hence there'll be no Ravens or 49ers players taking part.

This celebration of all that is great in the NFL has become increasingly unwatchable in recent seasons as it's increasingly started to resemble a non-contact training session, thus allowing the QBs to sling numerous TD passes to all and sundry, while the two lines basically crouch down and shake hands with each other at each snap.  IIRC, the crowd started booing on the first drive last season.

The last two games have finished 55-41 and 59-41, leading the bookies to set points lines at the 80-83.5 mark at prices around 10/11.

However, if you look a little further back in the history, you then have to go to 2003 to find another total >80 points and most other games have had a vaguely sensible scoreline.

The bigger factor to consider is that, after last season's game, and at various points subsequent to this, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell threatened to cancel the fixture in future if the quality of the game continued in this way.  Consequently, this game will come under heavy scrutiny from the NFL and the watching public and therefore should revert to something resembling a football game once again.  I may be wrong, but the line set so high assumes a repeat of the last two season's farces and looks like a worthwhile gamble to me if the players want to retain their annual week in the sun going forward.  Don't get me wrong, it's still going to be an exhibition game, but will hopefully now look like a pre-season game, rather than a training session and (whisper it quietly) we may see some tackling going on.

Obviously, there are plenty of NFL followers who will have their own views on this, so there should be a good opportunity to sense check my thinking.

Take your pick of where's best to place a bet:
Boylesports has under 83.5 at 20/23
Skybet has the best 10/11 line of 82.5, but is obviously off-limits for Fred
Hills goes 10/11 under 82.
Pretty much everywhere else is 10/11 under 80.

Other than Skybet, I'm not sure what's on and off limits for Fred so:

Assuming Fred has an account there, I recommend £25, under 82pts with William Hill in preference to the slightly worse price on a higher line with Boyles (I await being shot by one of the experienced NFL guys for this but I'm not sure the extra 1.5pts makes much difference at a spread this high).   

I'd prefer the Boyles line to the generally available under 80pts elsewhere, but think all are playable if account restrictions at Hills and Boyles apply.

I'd also recommend giving the game 10 minutes to see if it's watchable (they do have great uniforms though!)

NB: One thing to be aware of is that special rules apply in this game (e.g. I think defences aren't allowed to blitz the QB) so this makes it easier to rack up a higher score than usual, but in a vaguely competitive game I'd probably expect something around the 70-75pt mark to be the right sort of area.

Curtis,

As per usual, whilst Rome was burning, I was dithering. Apologies.

The line you suggested was clearly too high, & has been bet down to 79.5 in most places. (82.5@ SkyBet, but I don't bet there) except Boyles, who quote 80.5. 

Is this still worth a dabble, or have we missed all the value?

Let me know, please, it is not until Midnight, though I'll be Offline before then.


http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/nfc-at-afc/total-points

PS - Don't suppose there are key numbers & dead numbers in Total Points?

[a.sparrow]

Just seen pics of a betting slip on twitter where some guy bet £10 on MK dons, brentford and oldham all to be winnig at half time, returns £6050!

[tikay]

Galatasaray 250-1 william hill or coral champions league

1/2 1, 2

just signed drogba to go with sneijder

can they win it? probably not can they now beat schalke (possibly)

with those two to add to the european experience 250-1 just looks a smidgen big

worth £2 eway

Thanks horsey.

Deffo worth £4, think of the potential ROI!

We have £2EW @ 250/1, Wiliam Hill, Galatasaray to win Champions League.

ON

12 Feb 2013 - UEFA Champions League - Outright - Outright

Tip ItGalatasaray @ 250/1  EW @ 1/2 1-2

Stake : £4.00 (£2.00 x 2)
Estimated Returns : £754.00Transaction Reference:O/0457483/0000250/F

[Graham C]

Lol poor sods under the leaky room at Oldham

[tikay]

I refuse to bet on Liverpool to do well/win anything so am not on them to win the cup but massive   for Fred thus far.

We got out of a mini hole this morning when Bell performed his magic & so I thought today would be break-even, or close to it, but I've just realised we have £100 on Liverpool to win the FA Cup.

With 20 minutes to go, they trail Oldham 3-1.

Character testing stuff this.

[Tal]

Blue Square appears to have an interesting offer. If Frank Gore or Ray Rice scores the first TD, all first and last TD bets will be refunded.

Is this worth considering?

What difference does it make to the prices? I'm thinking backing a TE or WR is what would make this bet work but any thoughts?

[tikay]

Lol poor sods under the leaky room at Oldham

A weeks wages for Gerrard would nearly buy them a new roof, or pay to have the blocked gutters cleared a few times over.

Funny old game.

[Tal]

 

You got to know when to...