Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

Whilst i am at it. Wigan to beat Norwich at home are Evs with PP. Wigan are typically strong on the run in, have begun to pick up a little winning two from their last three.  Norwich are not playing great, are drawing a lot of games and generally quite poor and will think they can almost coast to safety and are without a decent Prem keeper following Bunn's suspension and Ruddy being out injured. Cant see anything other than an easy Wigan win and suggest they really should be odds on here.

Recommend Fred gets on this too.

Wigan at evens means the layers think they are the best side even before home advantage.   Norwich are 7 points clear of them.  This doesn't suggest massive value on the face of it, or an obvious easy win.

I remember reading some stats a year or so back suggesting that though people expect teams in relegation battle to fight much harder for their survival; the reality is that on average the bad teams continue playing badly.  There are teams like Wigan last year that go on very good runs, but there are others like Wolves last year who get worse.  The average is somewhere close to as bad as ever. 

Not sure i am following your point Doobs. You cant ignore Wigan's revival and survival credentials.

Wolves were terrible last year and got worse because they sacked big bent nosed Mick, whereas Wigan have some fire power and Norwich have simply stopped playing. Most of their boys are wearing in the flip flops ready for summer and Grant Holt is still digesting his christmas pud.

Do you think the price is correct. I wasnt suggesting it was huge value but it does represent some decent value in my mind worth a small bet.

If you were to price up a game between two evenly matched football teams, you would go something like home team 5/4, draw 5/2, away team 2/1.  I think that is about right from memory, but Neil or one of the betting gurus can correct me on this.

If you were to ignore current form/Wigan's survival credentials in this match and just look at the table, you may go Wigan should be 11/8 or 6/4 here.

Given Wigan are evens here, then it is clear to me they haven't just looked at the table and priced it up.  So we can guess that in the evens price there is an adjustment for their current form and/or survival credentials in the price already.

So for this to be value, we don't have to show this adjustment should be there, we have to show that the layers/betting syndicates are underestimating the size of the adjustment to the price.  I am not sure we have done that. 

In my previous post I referred to something I had previously read.  That was that somebody had theorised that the perceived improvement in the form of relegation threatened teams was a bit of an illusion, or at least not as great as people think.  So you get rich by laying these teams not backing them.  So Wigan are where they are because they aren't that good.  They may well improve at the end of the season, but underneath that they still aren't very good.  In addition we haven't got a great deal of data on The survival chances of a Wigan side under Martinez.  Last year they may just have got lucky??

Having said all that above, Betfair had them at 1.96/1.98 currently and evens beats that.  Given we expect Betfair to be close to perfect on a Premiership football match then we can use that to conclude evens is a tiny bit of value.  I wouldn't be a backer though.

[Doobs]

PP go 5 places in the 3:05 tomorrow. Turns out backing Northampton won't help your account I picked Global Village out for 8.87 ew but only because it was closest to BF price at this moment. Not a recommend more of a highlight of the offer.


Btw, my dad gave me a mouthwatering idea today. Each way doubles from the National and the Masters!!

Global Village/ Imperial Commander/ (Rose/Schwartzel/Adam) max bet 1p each way. Minimum stake is 8p. Doh.

You can get Imperial Commander at 16/1 BetVictor with 6 places e/w.  It doesn't beat Betfair at 18.5/1 but the 6 places and NRNB make up for it.  The only fly in the ointment is that Ladbrokes are a stand out 20/1.  But they only pay 4 places and aren't NRNB, so it is a bit swings and roundabouts.  I'd still take the BetVictor offer.

As Horneris stated the other day he has had injury issues and isn't a proven stayer (but winners of Gold Cups must have some stamina?).  In the last day or two, three bookmakers have taken the 16s off, so can't see that 20s lasting long.

[Junior Senior]

Thanks for the explanation Doobs. I am on for a small bit of interest anyway.

[tikay]

Daily Report @ 0010, Saturday March 30th

PROFIT on Month = £891.60

Outstanding bets £1,108.50




https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=22

[tikay]

Whilst i am at it. Wigan to beat Norwich at home are Evs with PP. Wigan are typically strong on the run in, have begun to pick up a little winning two from their last three.  Norwich are not playing great, are drawing a lot of games and generally quite poor and will think they can almost coast to safety and are without a decent Prem keeper following Bunn's suspension and Ruddy being out injured. Cant see anything other than an easy Wigan win and suggest they really should be odds on here.

Recommend Fred gets on this too.

Wigan at evens means the layers think they are the best side even before home advantage.   Norwich are 7 points clear of them.  This doesn't suggest massive value on the face of it, or an obvious easy win.

I remember reading some stats a year or so back suggesting that though people expect teams in relegation battle to fight much harder for their survival; the reality is that on average the bad teams continue playing badly.  There are teams like Wigan last year that go on very good runs, but there are others like Wolves last year who get worse.  The average is somewhere close to as bad as ever. 

Not sure i am following your point Doobs. You cant ignore Wigan's revival and survival credentials.

Wolves were terrible last year and got worse because they sacked big bent nosed Mick, whereas Wigan have some fire power and Norwich have simply stopped playing. Most of their boys are wearing in the flip flops ready for summer and Grant Holt is still digesting his christmas pud.

Do you think the price is correct. I wasnt suggesting it was huge value but it does represent some decent value in my mind worth a small bet.

If you were to price up a game between two evenly matched football teams, you would go something like home team 5/4, draw 5/2, away team 2/1.  I think that is about right from memory, but Neil or one of the betting gurus can correct me on this.

If you were to ignore current form/Wigan's survival credentials in this match and just look at the table, you may go Wigan should be 11/8 or 6/4 here.

Given Wigan are evens here, then it is clear to me they haven't just looked at the table and priced it up.  So we can guess that in the evens price there is an adjustment for their current form and/or survival credentials in the price already.

So for this to be value, we don't have to show this adjustment should be there, we have to show that the layers/betting syndicates are underestimating the size of the adjustment to the price.  I am not sure we have done that. 

In my previous post I referred to something I had previously read.  That was that somebody had theorised that the perceived improvement in the form of relegation threatened teams was a bit of an illusion, or at least not as great as people think.  So you get rich by laying these teams not backing them.  So Wigan are where they are because they aren't that good.  They may well improve at the end of the season, but underneath that they still aren't very good.  In addition we haven't got a great deal of data on The survival chances of a Wigan side under Martinez.  Last year they may just have got lucky??

Having said all that above, Betfair had them at 1.96/1.98 currently and evens beats that.  Given we expect Betfair to be close to perfect on a Premiership football match then we can use that to conclude evens is a tiny bit of value.  I wouldn't be a backer though.

Eveyone who "fancies" X to beat Y in a football match should read that.

[tikay]

PP go 5 places in the 3:05 tomorrow. Turns out backing Northampton won't help your account I picked Global Village out for 8.87 ew but only because it was closest to BF price at this moment. Not a recommend more of a highlight of the offer.


Btw, my dad gave me a mouthwatering idea today. Each way doubles from the National and the Masters!!

Global Village/ Imperial Commander/ (Rose/Schwartzel/Adam) max bet 1p each way. Minimum stake is 8p. Doh.

This is the re-scheduled William Hill Lincoln, & there may be other "Offers" for this today. SkyBet also go qtr odds first 5.

WmHill are offering 8/1Captain Bertie (qtr odds, 4 places), & I considered making it a Fred "Priority Offer" bet, but it is only (?) a point above the market price.

Thoughts welcome.

[Tal]

Click to see full-size image.

Carlsen plays Radjabov today. The Azeri has been tiring a little, having not played a major comp for a while. We absolutely would like a win today. Carlsen has said in the past that, when he loses, he gets so annoyed that he tries to take it out on the next opponent.

Kramnik plays Gelfand, who has been playing much better chess in the second half of this tournament, but now has little to play for.

The sick part of me would have loved a three way tie going into the last round. Whatever happens, we need Carlsen to show why he is the highest rated player of all time.

A moment of levity (pun ever so intended), as Lev Aronian displayed his sartorial range once again with this little number:

[tikay]

Click to see full-size image.

Carlsen plays Radjabov today. The Azeri has been tiring a little, having not played a major comp for a while. We absolutely would like a win today. Carlsen has said in the past that, when he loses, he gets so annoyed that he tries to take it out on the next opponent.

Kramnik plays Gelfand, who has been playing much better chess in the second half of this tournament, but now has little to play for.

The sick part of me would love a three way tie going into the last round. Whatever happens, we need Carlsen to show why he is the highest rated player of all time.

A moment of levity (pun ever so intended), as Lev Aronian displayed his sartorial range once again with this little number:

We have to hope our man wins today, & Kramnik only manages a draw.

[hector62]

Morning Mr T.

Rugby Union today sees Saracens visiting Wasps. Saracens will have one eye on next weeks Heineken cup game, they have rotated their squad, and Wasps are a decent side and have only lost once at home this season. I think Wasps will edge a close game. Looking at the market for the winning margin there is one price that sticks out, which provides us with the value and that is for Wasps to win by 1-12 points. I made that a 6 or 7/4 shot but Bwin are over 2-1.

Suggest £15 Wasps to win by 1-12 points @ 28/13 Bwin.

[Junior Senior]

PP go 5 places in the 3:05 tomorrow. Turns out backing Northampton won't help your account I picked Global Village out for 8.87 ew but only because it was closest to BF price at this moment. Not a recommend more of a highlight of the offer.


Btw, my dad gave me a mouthwatering idea today. Each way doubles from the National and the Masters!!

Global Village/ Imperial Commander/ (Rose/Schwartzel/Adam) max bet 1p each way. Minimum stake is 8p. Doh.

This is the re-scheduled William Hill Lincoln, & there may be other "Offers" for this today. SkyBet also go qtr odds first 5.

WmHill are offering 8/1Captain Bertie (qtr odds, 4 places), & I considered making it a Fred "Priority Offer" bet, but it is only (?) a point above the market price.

Thoughts welcome.

PP are only 13/2 though when 8/1 4 places with other firms available.

[tikay]

Daily Summary, @ 0920, Friday March 29th

We made a profit of £23 yesterday.

Just the one bet, (though I missed several winners, notably Northampton, & some losers, notably Doncaster), & our winner was quite remarkable.

Michigan were behind - well behind - for the entire game, somehow squared it up at the very end, & then did a hit & run job in overtime. Incred. I watched the game, but gave up with 5 minutes on the clock, very much assuming the worst. Well done Moony, thank you! (+£23).

That apart, a very quiet betting day as, perhaps, befits a religious festival.

We got a lovely little bet on, thanks to Snowy, in the European Tour Darts, Peter Wright @ 50/1, the price was slashed minutes later. He reacted faster than the bookies to the withdrawl of two short priced players, combined with Mr Wright's up & coming status. The bet was so good even Fen Man liked it. 

Not much lined up yet for today, a sort of lull before the Aintree storm.

Premiership & Championship football resumes today after an International break, so many of our Promotion & Relegation hopes will move a game nearer completion.

[Chompy]

PP go 5 places in the 3:05 tomorrow. Turns out backing Northampton won't help your account I picked Global Village out for 8.87 ew but only because it was closest to BF price at this moment. Not a recommend more of a highlight of the offer.


Btw, my dad gave me a mouthwatering idea today. Each way doubles from the National and the Masters!!

Global Village/ Imperial Commander/ (Rose/Schwartzel/Adam) max bet 1p each way. Minimum stake is 8p. Doh.

This is the re-scheduled William Hill Lincoln, & there may be other "Offers" for this today. SkyBet also go qtr odds first 5.

WmHill are offering 8/1Captain Bertie (qtr odds, 4 places), & I considered making it a Fred "Priority Offer" bet, but it is only (?) a point above the market price.

Thoughts welcome.

The Lincoln is a horrible race to play these days, especially when the ground's soft.

They used to go into two or three groups, but as at so many courses they now all come down the middle. No draw bias...8/1 the field...glglgl

[tikay]

Morning Mr T.

Rugby Union today sees Saracens visiting Wasps. Saracens will have one eye on next weeks Heineken cup game, they have rotated their squad, and Wasps are a decent side and have only lost once at home this season. I think Wasps will edge a close game. Looking at the market for the winning margin there is one price that sticks out, which provides us with the value and that is for Wasps to win by 1-12 points. I made that a 6 or 7/4 shot but Bwin are over 2-1.

Suggest £15 Wasps to win by 1-12 points @ 28/13 Bwin.

Morning hector.

Hope the weather is not too cold down there. The easterly wind continues up here in London, as it has for over a week now, which is jolly annoying, as it means the 'planes landing & taking off at Heathrow do so the wrong way round (they land from the west & take off to the east), this is opposite to the default direction, & means the prime plane-spotting sites (Myrtle Avenue, Hatton Cross Tube Station & the Shell garage on the A30) are no good at the moment. Most inconvenient.

The new watch-strap & battery has arrived, it is being organised by my gardener/allotment tender, & I'll do a photo (of the watch) later. Happy days.  

Back to business, sorry about thaty.

Nice spot, thank you, we are on as directed. Interesting how BWin are so often best price on RU Markets.

Happy Easter hector.

We have £15 @ 2.15, BWin, Wasps to win by 1-12 points over Saracens.

ON

1 single bet
London Wasps - Saracens
Winning Margin
Pick: London Wasps by 1-12 3.15 Total stake 15.00 GBP
Possible winnings 47.25 GBP

[superwomble]

I must be misreading this http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/aviva-premiership/wasps-v-saracens/winner

Wasps to win is about 2.3 isn't it? Isn't that a better price for a safer bet?

[superwomble]

Yeah just realized tikay is actually on at 3.15 thanks!