Tips for Tikay

[Chompy]

Time to add to the ESC portfolio.

£10 Moldova @ 210 on Betty.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w_zCXOPc7vo

[TightEnd]

Time to add to the ESC portfolio.

£10 Moldova @ 210 on Betty.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w_zCXOPc7vo

Denmark are strong favourites, and there is a big buzz about it. Seen various links to it on my social media etc and I'd never see that most years

Bit Cranberries/Bjork/Sinead O'Connor like



Is it really going to get beaten?



 

[TightEnd]

Something just struck me re the snooker Rich and your Burden bet.

Those stories of Ronnies practice sessions being really good and taken seriously might be showing in the three players he has been practicing with, White, Drago and Burden.

drago looks to have improved a stone in the qualifiers, White just knocked out too players he should prob have been beaten by these days and Burden has been in good form in tourneys recently too.

I liked the Burden bet, Harold is what he is but knows how to grind players down and there could be a reason that Burden has improved. I don't think it will be a quick game tho :-)

I was a bit surprised to se Ali Carter tweeting he was hitting the practice tables harder than at any other stage of the season,    Made me think of the Bears D coach who used to fine players if they quickened up in practice coz if they could quicken up when they had to it meant they weren't putting enough effort in in the first place.

I have had an eye on the live streaming of the qualifiers

White has taken a decade off his game. Really impressive form.

Drago hasn't changed. Lumbers up to his shot, no thought and goes for a pot

I concede, grudgingly lol, that if these guys and Alfie are practicing against Ronnie who is playing well then it is being reflected in their current form

[doubleup]

My first post on this thread.....

I have been betting on golf for many years and have a theory that whilst there are many factors that can be taken into consideration, by far the most important factor is 'recent form'. So much so that a system based on this single factor can prove very profitable. Based on this I backed Billy Horschel before the start of last weeks Texas Open on Betfair (65) given that he had come 2nd the previous week in the Houston Open. Whilst he did not win the Texas Open he lead after rounds 1, 2 & 3 and I was able to lay him off (with a big chunk at < 2) to make a decent profit.

Based on this theory I have 2 picks that are available on Betfair at unbelievable prices that just cannot be ignored.

D.A. Points (440) - Winner of the Houston Open just 2 weeks ago
Martin Laird (160) - Winner of last weeks Texas Open

In my opinion the above players represent huge value at these prices and I would expect them both to trade at significantly below these prices during the course of the tournament providing an opportunity of a decent profit even if they do not win.

What do you think?

I actually went through the last 4 years at Redstone (the schedule changed this year) to see how the top ten players did in the masters and there wasn't much colleration.  I also had a look for the last ten years at the winners of the two previous tournaments and how they've done.  Apart from Woods and Mickleson (no shit!) Anthony Kim is the only player who has paid out on an each way bet.

2012   t40   t12           woods   mahan
2011   t20   t27           laird   mickelson
2010   t18   3           els   kim
2009   t6   t20           woods   casey
2008   t8   t36           romero   wagoner
2007   t2   t27           woods   scott
2006   t11   w           ames   mickelson
2005   mc   10           funk    mickelson
2004   mc   no invite   scott   johnson
2003   t15   no invite   love   crane

[doubleup]

Laird'd game is more suited to Augusta  and he is a much classier player but last weeks win was his first top 30 of the season and he only broke 70 for one round which was the great 63. Anyone can catch fire for one round but I'd need to see way more to even consider backing him.

Don't just look at scores, look at the toughness of the course.  Laird's scores for the 4 rounds compared to the average score on the day were:

-3.61      -1.16      -3.89      -7.82

So that was one great round, 2 good rounds and an ok round.

[BigAdz]

Do you mean correlation?!

[doubleup]

Do you mean correlation?!

yes I do lol

#senility

[TightEnd]

I know thread probably can't get on

Stan James Basel goals tonight over 1.5 11/8. Best 11/10 elsewhere, odds on in spots

Having seen the Basel front three last week (best pair of wingers you'll see in a long time, well best pair of Swiss league wingers you'll see in a long time) when they scored 2 at White Hart Lane, I struggle to accept that over 1.5 tonight is an 11/8 shot

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/europa-league/basel-v-tottenham/total-home-goals-over-under-1-5

edit: now 6/5

[rinswun]

Laird'd game is more suited to Augusta  and he is a much classier player but last weeks win was his first top 30 of the season and he only broke 70 for one round which was the great 63. Anyone can catch fire for one round but I'd need to see way more to even consider backing him.

Don't just look at scores, look at the toughness of the course.  Laird's scores for the 4 rounds compared to the average score on the day were:

-3.61      -1.16      -3.89      -7.82

So that was one great round, 2 good rounds and an ok round.

Agreed but my point is without that one great round, Laird wouldn't even be here this week. One great round isn't indicative of good form. As an ew backer i'd personally rather see 8 consecutive good rounds than 2 poor ones, 2 ok ones, 2 good ones and two great ones.

[rinswun]

IPL Day 8:

Yesterday's game saw the Kings XI downed by the Super Kings who registered an impressive 10 wicket win. The only direct impact on our bets was Azhar Mahmood's 8 runs which leaves the top English batsman table looking like this after two games apiece -

Morgan - 67
Mahmood - 8
Shah - 0
Wright - 0

Morgan, Shah and Wright all have the chance to play today (Morgan has been named as a starter already) so we could see some movement. Morgan's Kolkata team have just got underway against the Royal Challenger. His score is really our only interest in that game. However, in the afternoon game out boys Pune attempt to arrest a 10 game losing streak when they meet the Royals. It'd be nice if Rajasthan did us a favour and gave Shah a spin bit I have a feeling they might stick with a winning team. A Pune win might convince them to get him in finally.

[Doobs]

1/5 first 4 is better than 1/4 first 3.  So given the same price you'd be better off betting at Ladbrokes.  

Backing 8/1 e/w somewhere else is just a bit better than betting 7/1 e/w with Ladbrokes.  There isn't a lot in it, so our betting was close to the optimum.

Just for example, assuming Henley is a true 8/1 chance and we back £15 e/w.  You can guess he is roughly 2/1 to get top 3 or 5/4 to get top 4 (.1111 x 3 and .1111 x 4).  They feel a bit too big, but are probably close enough for this purpose.  

So at 7/1 Ladbrokes, we expect to get 15 x 8 x .1111 back from wins and 15 x 12/5 x .4444 back from places which is £29.33 in total.

If we took 8/1 elsewhere, we expect to get 15 x 9 x .11111 back from wins and 15 x 3 x .3333 back from places which is £30 total.

If you take Betfair as gospel, then the best bet looks to be Lynn, you beat Betfair by most, get the best price and get the better Ladbrokes e/w terms.

Thanks for this Doobs and I appreciate this is somewhat back of envelope stuff but I would like to put out a theoretical question.  Is it fair to assume that finishing positions are distributed equally like that?  There was some discussion earlier today on Fred about the distribution of Tigers finishing positions which suggested he was significantly more likely to finish first than second, third, fourth etc.  Given that Henley is, rightly or wrongly, fourth favourite in this market isn''t he theoretically more likely to finish fourth than first and arent his finishing positions in this market largely normally distributed around his mean finishing position?  In which case that extra position in fourth may actually be disproportionately valuable......I am just putting this out there as a discussion point as I honestly don't know and if anyone will know it is Doobs i would have thought!!!!

Will come back later.  That is why I said it is too big.  

In the example above I am producing something very rough that is good enough to show which is better of 1/5 first 4 or 1/4 first 3.  

In this market there are 17 runners and you aren't going to get a distribution that gives the probability of finishing 1st to 9th as .11111 and no chance at all of finishing 10th to 17th.  The reality is that 10th is a little less likely than 9th.  My gut feeling is that he isn't going to have 4/9ths chance of finishing in the top 4.  So I don't think the each way terms are particularly good here, but Ladbrokes are better than the rest.

I think the normal distribution is a bad distribution to use for your model here, as his results will be skewed towards him finishing in the first few positions.  Normal will give you a bell shape, which assumes that you are equally likely to be 5 less than the mean and 5 more.  

The real distribution curve would be something like this.



Without modelling the data, I'd expect the real distribution to be something like a cross between the red and pink curves above for all the favourites.  So it will be flattish between 1 and 4 or so and then tail off.  It may just slope down from 1st for the favourites.  If I was pushed, I'd say 4th was less likely than 3rd for the players near the top of the market like Coetzee and Henley.  I wouldn't be so confident with Lynn, as he is much closer to average.  It is plausible that he may be more likely to finish 4th than 3rd (or 1st).  The fact he is closer to average also supports my assertion that he is likely the best each way bet here.  

FWIW I'd be very confident the Woods finishing position distribution was more like the red line than the pink line.  

[TightEnd]

swoon

[Tal]

I know thread probably can't get on

Stan James Basel goals tonight over 1.5 11/8. Best 11/10 elsewhere, odds on in spots

Having seen the Basel front three last week (best pair of wingers you'll see in a long time, well best pair of Swiss league wingers you'll see in a long time) when they scored 2 at White Hart Lane, I struggle to accept that over 1.5 tonight is an 11/8 shot

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/europa-league/basel-v-tottenham/total-home-goals-over-under-1-5

edit: now 6/5

Looks good to me. Spurs have to score tonight, which always offers the chance for a counter.

The price is the wrong side of even money to me.

[Tal]

Psychadelic lambdas ftw

[simonnatur]

Time to add to the ESC portfolio.

£10 Moldova @ 210 on Betty.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w_zCXOPc7vo

Denmark are strong favourites, and there is a big buzz about it. Seen various links to it on my social media etc and I'd never see that most years

Bit Cranberries/Bjork/Sinead O'Connor like



Is it really going to get beaten?



 

Surely you're wasting your money guys, how can Greece not romp home ??

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=FPvX5GXF8z4#at=38