Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

Think the order of preference is:

Mirsaale
Chopin
Galileo Rock
Ocovango/Dawn Approach
Mars??
Any non O'Brien horse
Other O'Brien horses.

I think Mars may be a bit higher or lower as £375 in the hand may be better than the possible win on the Non O'Brien classic winners, but is impossible to tell without the Leger runners and odds.

[MereNovice]

Best do this before the race.  Think Mars should go down to me as that was the free bet from one of mine.  I think it os correct that the other 3 O'Brien horses go to Chompy as I was just finding offers that added a bit of +EV to his wishes.

Think this is fair.

Hope they all lose (except maybe Mars!)

All agreed, I assume Mere will enter accordingly.

Actioned.

[Bad Beat]

 Very happy that you guys bet Mirsaale by the way. I'm pretty sure most the Fred regs are signed up so no prob.

 Very happy with that bet. Have gone big.

 I know Fred has a lot of bets on the race but a look at the Betfair place market tells you that each-way bets in the race would be +ev on virtually every horse.

 You have missed Libertarian though. It's trading 16/1 and 4.2 a place so only marginal value at 14/1. Sadly when I started typing it was 16/1.

 I do quite like it though.

[tikay]

Very happy that you guys bet Mirsaale by the way. I'm pretty sure most the Fred regs are signed up so no prob.

 Very happy with that bet. Have gone big.

 I know Fred has a lot of bets on the race but a look at the Betfair place market tells you that each-way bets in the race would be +ev on virtually every horse.

 You have missed Libertarian though. It's trading 16/1 and 4.2 a place so only marginal value at 14/1. Sadly when I started typing it was 16/1.

 I do quite like it though.

In before the race.....

I backed all three last night, off-thread.

Today, Fred has got on Mirsaale and Galileo Rock.

So personally, I am double booked on two of the buggers!

Hope Vegas is going well.

[The Camel]

The 40th Derby I've watched and still get butterflies before the race.

Absolutely love this occasion, can remember exactly where I saw every winner, can almost plot my life story through Derby winners.

For this renewal I thought the 6/4 Dawn Approach was just too big, so that's where my loyalties are.

Good luck everyone.

[tikay]

Think the order of preference is:

Mirsaale
Chopin
Galileo Rock
Ocovango/Dawn Approach
Mars??
Any non O'Brien horse
Other O'Brien horses.

I think Mars may be a bit higher or lower as £375 in the hand may be better than the possible win on the Non O'Brien classic winners, but is impossible to tell without the Leger runners and odds.

Thanks, that helps.

[tikay]

The 40th Derby I've watched and still get butterflies before the race.

Absolutely love this occasion, can remember exactly where I saw every winner, can almost plot my life story through Derby winners.

For this renewal I thought the 6/4 Dawn Approach was just too big, so that's where my loyalties are.

Good luck everyone.

You too, Keith.

What did you do to me when you started this thread?...... Nearly a degen, now.

[tikay]

Wow, what a race that was.

Well done for successfully covering the O'Brien bet, we had £25 @ 8/1 I think. Just about got out of it overall, minus the O'Brien bet, so not so bad I guess.

[Chompy]

Sigh.

Dawn Approach done after 2f, which was the time to worry. Libertarian wins the Leger imo.

[TightEnd]

Netting off all the Aidan Bets, the covers etc we lost -£17.50 on the race/Aidan bets combined

[Doobs]

Wow, what a race that was.

Well done for successfully covering the O'Brien bet, we had £25 @ 8/1 I think. Just about got out of it overall, minus the O'Brien bet, so not so bad I guess.

Think Ocovango ran a good race, had a really messy race and definitely got baulked at least once.  Think would have been top 3 on a better run.  Think 25s for the Arc is good still.

[tikay]

Netting off all the Aidan Bets, the covers etc we lost -£17.50 on the race/Aidan bets combined

If correct, that's ok, we were almost freerolling a goodly bit of upside.

Think we lost a bit more than £17 though.

[TightEnd]

I was down as the owner of Chopin?

Sigh. It was only an idle idea!!

[MereNovice]

Netting off all the Aidan Bets, the covers etc we lost -£17.50 on the race/Aidan bets combined

If correct, that's ok, we were almost freerolling a goodly bit of upside.

It is correct.
£10 e/w on Galileo Rock at 40/1 (tipped on Betting Emporium) helped.

[tikay]

I was down as the owner of Chopin?

Sigh. It was only an idle idea!!

We can't let Chompy take the blame for everything.