Tips for Tikay

UFC tonight, I don't have time to type up something individually for here so will copy and paste from website but basically I recommend:

£20 Fabricio Werdum to win by decision @ 4/1 bet365
£10 Thiago Silva to win by decision @ 5/1 SkyBet

I realise that TfT can't bet with SkyBet but Ladbrokes go 13/2 UD and 9/1 split/majority decision - does someone know or can work out whether it should still a bet at the 13/2 (splits are less often seen at heavier weights). If it helps a small sample of 2012 suggests that 16% of decisions are split/majority.

The second season of The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil has recently came to an end with the coaches from that season, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Fabricio Werdum meeting in the main event of UFC on Fuel 10 in a heavyweight clash which has important implications for both men.

Nogueira is in the twilight of his career and looks to keep himself relevant and stave off retirement whilst Werdum hasn’t been seen in the cage for a year and needs the win to push himself into the heavyweight title picture.

These two men have fought before, at a Pride FC event in 2006, with Nogueira taking home the decision victory. However this time we see the result being reversed with Werdum taking home the decision victory and this result can be backed at 4/1 with bet365.

Werdum is 1/3 to win outright so 4/1 may look very large for the decision victory but that is because the general consensus sees Nogueira as on his way out and they will also have noticed that Werdum’s striking has improved dramatically but we believe those factors are being weighted too heavily.

Both these men are high-level BJJ black belts and we can’t see this fight hitting the mat too often as neither man is likely to want to risk getting caught in a submission. For that reason, we believe that the majority of this fight will take place standing, or perhaps we might see the odd scramble.

Nogueira has been known for his clean boxing skills for a number of years now but the dramatic improvements we’ve seen in Werdum’s Muay Thai skills over the last couple of years lead me to believe he will use those skills to outstrike “Big Nog” on his way to having his hand raised.

The main negative to the bet is Nogueira’s seemingly weakening punch resistance but it is not enough of a negative to detract from the value of the bet as it is our belief that Werdum’s power may only be effective for the opening two rounds of this five round fight. Both men are likely to tire late on, meaning stoppages are less likely.

One statistic that is interesting is that, according to FightMetric, Nogueira absorbs more strikes than he lands per minute (1.85:2.15) which obviously backs our theory that he will be outstruck (Werdum has a ratio of 2.77:1.85) whilst the 2.15 strike per minute absorbed isn’t too high to have a serious worry about the KO.

Our second free UFC bet for the UFC on Fuel 10 card comes in the co-main event between Thiago Silva and Rafael Cavalcante which has been talked about by most in the media as a striking war between two feared KO artists with one likely to end up being KO’d.

We’re taking a chance that this fight might not be quite as described by the media with the belief that the reputations of the two might lead to a timid fight with both fighters showing some restraint – something that is commonly seen when a fight is discussed in such a way.

We’re suggesting that a chance be taken on Thiago Silva to win this fight on by decision which can be backed at 5/1 with SkyBet as the statistics suggest that if this doesn’t end in a KO he will outstrike Cavalcante on his way to victory.