Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Betway are beyond useless, having got the time for a lengthy post but trust me when I say you don't want to open an account there.

By a LONG way the worst experience I have ever had with a bookie - If you think Boyle/Coral/SJ are bad then this lot take it to a new level

Top man, thank you. I've had 4 or 5 PM's along the same lines.

I will NOT be opening an account there.

[tikay]

Don't think Luck is a bad bet in the most passing yards market Tony coz I'm not sure there is a really bad bet in the first 7-8 in the list, think you should have a bet as a few guys like him and the price is much better than a lot of the players in the list at double the price. Personally I could see Romo as a slightly better bet at a smaller price than Luck but enough good NFL judges here like it, must bet it 1/4 the first 4 places tho.

cheers

Thanks Phil.

We'll get on Mr Luck then, but I'll put it down to "sicilian". 

I'm very wobbly about his Colts suggestion though, as I am getting very mixed feedback. You got any views on it?

One of the best NFL judges I know is bang against it.

[bobby1]

If the Betfair price is within a few ticks of the price taken, we don't need to look at results, these bets are massively +ev (some more massive than others obv)

Let's not be results orientated.

That would be going back to ice cream punting.

I shall take that as confirmation that I am no longer an ice-cream.

Mr A J Kendall, Retired Ice Cream

Here to take over the helm of the good ship Magnum

even though we know its a great offer proven by doobs, elders and spiders etc

no harm in looking at the results as a whole so far to see how fred is doing with it as it stands as it does take up a large part of the action lately and how the free bets part is going

its not a criticism of fred , being results orientated or a stick to bash up doobs calculator just interesting i think

Doobs did a lot of good work setting out the math for these and does a lot of work getting selections each day and they are so clearly good value race by race. They are just bets that have to be placed really. I wouldn't get too hung up on the BF market when placing them because the BOG is a nice cushion anyway and it would make a bit of sense for the firms offering this to be a little under the market on the runners they know they are likely to lay that are more likely to activate the cash back.

[tikay]

If the Betfair price is within a few ticks of the price taken, we don't need to look at results, these bets are massively +ev (some more massive than others obv)

Let's not be results orientated.

That would be going back to ice cream punting.

I shall take that as confirmation that I am no longer an ice-cream.

Mr A J Kendall, Retired Ice Cream

Here to take over the helm of the good ship Magnum

even though we know its a great offer proven by doobs, elders and spiders etc

no harm in looking at the results as a whole so far to see how fred is doing with it as it stands as it does take up a large part of the action lately and how the free bets part is going

its not a criticism of fred , being results orientated or a stick to bash up doobs calculator just interesting i think

Doobs did a lot of good work setting out the math for these and does a lot of work getting selections each day and they are so clearly good value race by race. They are just bets that have to be placed really. I wouldn't get too hung up on the BF market when placing them because the BOG is a nice cushion anyway and it would make a bit of sense for the firms offering this to be a little under the market on the runners they know they are likely to lay that are more likely to activate the cash back.

Well yes.

A 60 result sample size tells us nothing.

The answer has nothing to do with jockeys, tracks, horses, trainers ,or time of the month. It is just mathematically correct.

[bobby1]

Don't think Luck is a bad bet in the most passing yards market Tony coz I'm not sure there is a really bad bet in the first 7-8 in the list, think you should have a bet as a few guys like him and the price is much better than a lot of the players in the list at double the price. Personally I could see Romo as a slightly better bet at a smaller price than Luck but enough good NFL judges here like it, must bet it 1/4 the first 4 places tho.

cheers

Thanks Phil.

We'll get on Mr Luck then, but I'll put it down to "sicilian". 

I'm very wobbly about his Colts suggestion though, as I am getting very mixed feedback. You got any views on it?

One of the best NFL judges I know is bang against it.

Well the great advantage of going 1-15 the year before is your schedule is easier the following year. I think the only team they beat outside their Div last year that made the play offs was Minny. Ku was right too they did run well in some tight games.

This year their out of Div games against teams that would be considered play off teams and more  are Miami, San Fran,Seattle, Denver, Cincy and Kansas tho they also have Oakland San Diego and Arizona match ups and of course get to play Jax and Tennesse twice in their Div but also have to Play Houston twice.

8 wins deffo possible but I would be v surprised if they won say 10 so doesn't give a lot of room for error.

[aaron1867]

England v Moldova on Friday. Should be routine. Therefore I suggest a max bet on England to win to nil @ 9/20.

Priced up much smaller everywhere else and yes it's odds on, but I think it's pinching money personally. We beat them 5-0 away last time (http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/preliminaries/europe/matches/round=258374/match=300182319/report.html).

Also would suggest two £5 win singles on 7-0 and 8-0 wins which are 50's and 125 with Sporting Bet, not much value on any other scores.

Not sure what max bet is, but suggest on England to win to nil and the two £5 singles.

Good Luck.

What did we decide on this eventually?

Shoetly after it was Posted, Nico29 made a terrific post which EXACTLY represnted my thinking, but then, after chewing it over, I think the view was arrived at that the bet was probably good value?

I probably missed the boat anyway, as I was busy yesterday, & the prices have moved badly against us (so, good spot Aaron), see.....


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/matches/england-v-moldova/to-win-to-nil

Still interested in the Correct Score bets though, as well as the Tighty Post just now.

we've lost value in both markets anyway & even though I still think 2/5 is fair and probably just abour right, we've missed the boat, but I lumped on at earlier price thankfully. Not liking the correct score markets on this match anymore either, definitely not enough value on betting on huge wins for England.

England 1/16 to win generally, how bad is that?

[tikay]

England v Moldova on Friday. Should be routine. Therefore I suggest a max bet on England to win to nil @ 9/20.

Priced up much smaller everywhere else and yes it's odds on, but I think it's pinching money personally. We beat them 5-0 away last time (http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/preliminaries/europe/matches/round=258374/match=300182319/report.html).

Also would suggest two £5 win singles on 7-0 and 8-0 wins which are 50's and 125 with Sporting Bet, not much value on any other scores.

Not sure what max bet is, but suggest on England to win to nil and the two £5 singles.

Good Luck.

What did we decide on this eventually?

Shoetly after it was Posted, Nico29 made a terrific post which EXACTLY represnted my thinking, but then, after chewing it over, I think the view was arrived at that the bet was probably good value?

I probably missed the boat anyway, as I was busy yesterday, & the prices have moved badly against us (so, good spot Aaron), see.....


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/matches/england-v-moldova/to-win-to-nil

Still interested in the Correct Score bets though, as well as the Tighty Post just now.

we've lost value in both markets anyway & even though I still think 2/5 is fair and probably just abour right, we've missed the boat, but I lumped on at earlier price thankfully. Not liking the correct score markets on this match anymore either, definitely not enough value on betting on huge wins for England.

England 1/16 to win generally, how bad is that?

Thanks Aaron.

Your Recommend sparked a terrific debate, & I think eventually it was agreed that it was very good.

Unfortunately, I have had time issues this week, & not been quick enough off the mark with some things.

Always good to debate them though.

[tikay]

An update, for Aaron, Dubai, all interested....

England v Moldova

FGS

Bet365 offer each way (or anytime goal scorer) terms of 1/3 odds, unlimited places

Each of the following are realistic goal scorers, at better than Even money anytime, which would result in a net profit

Danny Welbeck 15/4
Theo Walcott 4/1
Frank Lampard 6/1

Lampard will be on penalties, and particularly appeals

Sturridge is 3/1. Gerrard 6/1.....

Of course you could be more aggressive, with the likes of Cleverly and Baines at higher prices, depending on your appetite for risk.

Correct Scores

Odds on possible corrct scores are as follows

All are with Sporting Bet, who are current best price by a long way

England 5-0 14/1
England 6-0 20/1
England 7-0 40/1

Did we revise this list after feedback, or do we want to go with it "as is"?

I may not be around to get on tomorrow.

[horseplayer]

Macedonia v Wales bet cancelled

Referee is no longer who i thought it would be

which is a shame

[TightEnd]

I think thats not easy to answer tikay

My list was Walcott, Welbeck, Lampard

Doobs was Welbeck, Lambert, Lampard

There were words for others too

Dubai isn't around, normally he can be relied on to not prevaricate.....


How about going with Doobs' three, unless there is a better suggestion?

Lambert would be void if he didn't start, most probably....

[hector62]

Evening Mr T.

There is a super league game tonight when Wigan host Leeds to determine who finishes 3rd and 4th in the league. Wigan have been unimpressive for the last 2 months and will really miss O'Laughlin. I wouldn't put it past them to rest Tomkins again in which case I would make Leeds favourites. Even if he plays this should be a close low scoring game that Leeds could edge, maybe with a Sinfield drop goal.

Suggest £20 Leeds @ 13/8 Betfred, Betvictor et al.

I wouldn't put anyone off backing Wawrinka to beat Murray tonight either.

[bobby1]

Evening Mr T.

There is a super league game tonight when Wigan host Leeds to determine who finishes 3rd and 4th in the league. Wigan have been unimpressive for the last 2 months and will really miss O'Laughlin. I wouldn't put it past them to rest Tomkins again in which case I would make Leeds favourites. Even if he plays this should be a close low scoring game that Leeds could edge, maybe with a Sinfield drop goal.

Suggest £20 Leeds @ 13/8 Betfred, Betvictor et al.

I wouldn't put anyone off backing Wawrinka to beat Murray tonight either.

Seem's a strange end to the season Hector with both these teams looking to be better off if they lost tonight, do you think there is a chance this could end up a bit of a farce?

[bobby1]

Does anyone have a view on what the Minny at Detroit line might be on the off?

[Doobs]

I think thats not easy to answer tikay

My list was Walcott, Welbeck, Lampard

Doobs was Welbeck, Lambert, Lampard

There were words for others too

Dubai isn't around, normally he can be relied on to not prevaricate.....


How about going with Doobs' three, unless there is a better suggestion?

Lambert would be void if he didn't start, most probably....

If Defoe starts think he is a bet at 4/1.  I don't think it matters too much, the attacking players are all probably value, just different degrees of value.  Bet365 are top on a fair few and do the each way too, that looks a good combination to me.   Hopefully they don't get 2-0 up and shut up shop.

[tikay]

Evening Mr T.

There is a super league game tonight when Wigan host Leeds to determine who finishes 3rd and 4th in the league. Wigan have been unimpressive for the last 2 months and will really miss O'Laughlin. I wouldn't put it past them to rest Tomkins again in which case I would make Leeds favourites. Even if he plays this should be a close low scoring game that Leeds could edge, maybe with a Sinfield drop goal.

Suggest £20 Leeds @ 13/8 Betfred, Betvictor et al.

I wouldn't put anyone off backing Wawrinka to beat Murray tonight either.

Thanks H, caught me just before I log off & start work. Well done on Mr Racqeut yesterday, tremendous spot & a very enjoyable game to watch. Some arena/Stadium that!

I saw Bobby's Post, too, but even if it does end up a bit of a farce, as suggested, we still have the best of it at 13/8. Better that than the jolly in such circumstances.

We have £20 @ 13/8, Bet Victor, Leeds to beat Wigan tonight.


ON

Wigan v LeedsLeeds (To Win Match)Odds: 13/8 Stake: 20.00Possible Return:  52.50