Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Wow, that was long, sorry!

if the boss puts it on, I will have to learn the NHL

FML!

[tikay]

So, the NHL season starts in the next few weeks with the pre-season schedule beginning later this week. With this in mind I'd like to put up a bet which I think represents good value.

The Ottawa Senators finished the lockout- shortened 2012/13 season at 7th in the Eastern Conference and eliminated the 2nd placed Montreal Canadiens in the playoffs before bowing out in the 2nd round. On the face of it this was a decent if unremarkable season for the franchise. However, a little drill down into their stats indicates that this was actually a remarkable effort  for a team which saw it's starting goalie, best defenceman, and 2 starting top-liners all out with season ending injuries before the half way point in the season. The lineup was decimated and yet coach Paul McLean managed to galvanise them to not only make the playoffs but then win a series. He was subsequently rewarded with the NHL coach of the year award for his efforts.

The off-season was an interesting one for the team. Firstly their captain of 14 years, Daniel Alfredsson, left to join a divisional rival. They then went out and acquired one of the best young power forwards in the game, a giant by the name of Bobby Ryan, giving up a blue-chip prospect and a 1st round pick in the process. It was clear to all observers that Alfredsson effectiveness had been on the wane so the addition of Ryan represents a big step forward. The also found new sponsors for their arena, along with a promise to regenerate the surrounding area.

I've logged some pros and cons.

Pros:
- Best coach in hockey in Paul McLean.
-Goalie Craig Anderson had the best numbers of all NHL goaltenders and was the prime candidate for winning the Vezina award as best goalie prior to his injury after 24 games. He has reported back to camp in full health.
-D-man Eric Karlsson was the Norris award winner as best defenceman in the game in 2012. He was injured after 10 games last year but returned to log heavy minutes in the playoffs. He is 23 years old and an absolute weapon on the blue-line.
-Centre, and likely new captain, Jason Spezza has reported to camp in full health having missed all bar 5 games of last season. He has perennially been one of the top 10 centres in the game and at 30 years old has scope to improve with the added responsibility of the captaincy.
-Bobby Ryan is a significant offensive upgrade on Alfredsson. The franchise paid a lot of their future to get him which indicates to me that they feel their future is now.
-Younger role players who stepped up last year will have improved immeasurably due to having to face the tougher matchups in the absence of all the above players. Dropped back to face secondary line matchups they should be better placed for success.

Cons:

-The two market leaders are very strong and worthy favourites. However, the NHL is not like the NBA where realistically few teams have a shot. Two years ago 8th seeded (8 make the playoffs in each conference) LA Kings shipped the lot for example.
-The NHL has rejigged it's divisions and the Senators look to be in the tougher half of the Eastern Conference. However, there are not as many games against each divisional rival this season which negates this somewhat.
-Injury worries. Are the above injuries likely to reoccur or lead to slow starts?
-Leadership. With Alfreddson gone and a relatively young core, how will the team cope with adversity? They did ok last year, and with the coach of the year in charge I see them being ok.

The bookies currently have them priced up as the 8th best team in the conference but they look to have been lazy and pretty much priced on last years finishing standings only. I see plenty of overrated big market teams ahead of them whose fans back them way too short. I have them as the 3rd best team in the conference and see them making the playoffs relatively easily. Once their they will be a match up the others will want to avoid.

They are currently 33/1 with Lads and Will Hill and I would recommend that £30 should get you a real decent run for your money.

Thanks, I SO want to do that!

But.....unless I am reading something wrong, Wm Hill have them at 14/1, Ladbrokes 16/1.

Eastern Conference, right? NHL?

[a.sparrow]

So, the NHL season starts in the next few weeks with the pre-season schedule beginning later this week. With this in mind I'd like to put up a bet which I think represents good value.

The Ottawa Senators finished the lockout- shortened 2012/13 season at 7th in the Eastern Conference and eliminated the 2nd placed Montreal Canadiens in the playoffs before bowing out in the 2nd round. On the face of it this was a decent if unremarkable season for the franchise. However, a little drill down into their stats indicates that this was actually a remarkable effort  for a team which saw it's starting goalie, best defenceman, and 2 starting top-liners all out with season ending injuries before the half way point in the season. The lineup was decimated and yet coach Paul McLean managed to galvanise them to not only make the playoffs but then win a series. He was subsequently rewarded with the NHL coach of the year award for his efforts.

The off-season was an interesting one for the team. Firstly their captain of 14 years, Daniel Alfredsson, left to join a divisional rival. They then went out and acquired one of the best young power forwards in the game, a giant by the name of Bobby Ryan, giving up a blue-chip prospect and a 1st round pick in the process. It was clear to all observers that Alfredsson effectiveness had been on the wane so the addition of Ryan represents a big step forward. The also found new sponsors for their arena, along with a promise to regenerate the surrounding area.

I've logged some pros and cons.

Pros:
- Best coach in hockey in Paul McLean.
-Goalie Craig Anderson had the best numbers of all NHL goaltenders and was the prime candidate for winning the Vezina award as best goalie prior to his injury after 24 games. He has reported back to camp in full health.
-D-man Eric Karlsson was the Norris award winner as best defenceman in the game in 2012. He was injured after 10 games last year but returned to log heavy minutes in the playoffs. He is 23 years old and an absolute weapon on the blue-line.
-Centre, and likely new captain, Jason Spezza has reported to camp in full health having missed all bar 5 games of last season. He has perennially been one of the top 10 centres in the game and at 30 years old has scope to improve with the added responsibility of the captaincy.
-Bobby Ryan is a significant offensive upgrade on Alfredsson. The franchise paid a lot of their future to get him which indicates to me that they feel their future is now.
-Younger role players who stepped up last year will have improved immeasurably due to having to face the tougher matchups in the absence of all the above players. Dropped back to face secondary line matchups they should be better placed for success.

Cons:

-The two market leaders are very strong and worthy favourites. However, the NHL is not like the NBA where realistically few teams have a shot. Two years ago 8th seeded (8 make the playoffs in each conference) LA Kings shipped the lot for example.
-The NHL has rejigged it's divisions and the Senators look to be in the tougher half of the Eastern Conference. However, there are not as many games against each divisional rival this season which negates this somewhat.
-Injury worries. Are the above injuries likely to reoccur or lead to slow starts?
-Leadership. With Alfreddson gone and a relatively young core, how will the team cope with adversity? They did ok last year, and with the coach of the year in charge I see them being ok.

The bookies currently have them priced up as the 8th best team in the conference but they look to have been lazy and pretty much priced on last years finishing standings only. I see plenty of overrated big market teams ahead of them whose fans back them way too short. I have them as the 3rd best team in the conference and see them making the playoffs relatively easily. Once their they will be a match up the others will want to avoid.

They are currently 33/1 with Lads and Will Hill and I would recommend that £30 should get you a real decent run for your money.

Thanks, I SO want to do that!

But.....unless I am reading something wrong, Wm Hill have them at 14/1, Ladbrokes 16/1.

Eastern Conference, right? NHL?

To win the stanley cup maybe?  I absoultely love NHL, it won't be a popular opinion but i think its much more fun than the NFL

Edit: just checked, it is for the stanley cup : http://www.oddschecker.com/ice-hockey/nhl/stanley-cup/winner

[rinswun]

Yep sorry, I wasn't clear. It's to win the Stanley Cup. Although you probably couldn't go far wrong backing them to win the conference at 16/1 either. I prefer them to win it in the playoffs though.

[tikay]

Yep sorry, I wasn't clear. It's to win the Stanley Cup. Although you probably couldn't go far wrong backing them to win the conference at 16/1 either. I prefer them to win it in the playoffs though.

Ahh,, that works, thanks.

Yes, Stanley Cup, 33/1.

We are ON with Wm Hill @ 33/1, but only for £25, as I wanted to make theoretical best use of a £25 Free Bet.

£25 FREE BET @ 33/1, Ottawa Senators to win the Stanley Cup Hockey Thing.

ON

We have a whole new sport to follow now!

PS - we have, or had, a blonde Member who used to play NHL, I believe.

[tikay]

Tighty,

Thanks for all the various updates.

Did I miss the Strictly Come Dancing Update?

[rinswun]

Sounds good, I'll keep the updates regular.

[Karabiner]

Yep sorry, I wasn't clear. It's to win the Stanley Cup. Although you probably couldn't go far wrong backing them to win the conference at 16/1 either. I prefer them to win it in the playoffs though.

Ahh,, that works, thanks.

Yes, Stanley Cup, 33/1.

We are ON with Wm Hill @ 33/1, but only for £25, as I wanted to make theoretical best use of a £25 Free Bet.

£25 FREE BET @ 33/1, Ottawa Senators to win the Stanley Cup Hockey Thing.

ON

We have a whole new sport to follow now!

PS - we have, or had, a blonde Member who used to play NHL, I believe.

Didn't he also used to play in The Beach Boys too?

[tikay]

Sounds good, I'll keep the updates regular.

Good luck!

[tikay]

Yep sorry, I wasn't clear. It's to win the Stanley Cup. Although you probably couldn't go far wrong backing them to win the conference at 16/1 either. I prefer them to win it in the playoffs though.

Ahh,, that works, thanks.

Yes, Stanley Cup, 33/1.

We are ON with Wm Hill @ 33/1, but only for £25, as I wanted to make theoretical best use of a £25 Free Bet.

£25 FREE BET @ 33/1, Ottawa Senators to win the Stanley Cup Hockey Thing.

ON

We have a whole new sport to follow now!

PS - we have, or had, a blonde Member who used to play NHL, I believe.

Didn't he also used to play in The Beach Boys too?

One and the same.

If only his price had been 7/4.....

[tikay]

I don't really like the look of the game either to be honest, but I think it is a valid point that bookies will know that punters will want to smash into Prestron tonight after a dry football weekend (and dry week ahead apart from England game) and they'll likely go off too short.  How to take advantage of this I am less sure.

Think we will swerve this, unless we can find a niche or oddball market. Be good to have something to watch, but on the evidence so far, there is no compelling value visible.

[TightEnd]

Tighty,

Thanks for all the various updates.

Did I miss the Strictly Come Dancing Update?

You didn't

On an attempt at an afternoon off I watched it on Catch up

Ms Gumball opined in a vox pop en camera

"I wanted to be a dancer until I was 19, but then I had an injury"

We are on a reasonably good thing, as a group dance showed. She looked very good.


The main competition appears to be a supine young fella who appears in Hollyoaks

Three of the men are Dad dancers (Jacklin, Hairy biker and actor)No hopers

Two of the Ladies won't be good enough all rounders (Fullarton, Meaden) No hopers

Two of the other ladies are more professional types, but won't have the rhythm (Reid, Riley)

Feltz is in for comedy.

Ellis Bextor could make a daffodil wither at 100 paces such is her sourpuss demeanour. Not a winner for me

Abby Clancy opens her mouth and the audience's will to live disappears. More vacuous than a Dyson test factory.

 


Which lleaves us with

Gumball
Hollyoaks
Cohen the rugby player
Patrick Casualty
Julian McDonald

Cohen, McDonald and Casualty don't appear to have much dance aptitude


So we are in a match with Hollyoaks

Gumball is into 13/5 best, Hollyoaks 4/1 13/2 bar



You did ask

[tikay]

^^^^

In one Post, Tighty manages to kill Fred.

Top work Sir. Post something about SCD  on Saturday morning, it will ease the weekend rush.

[redarmi]

Phils post yesterday about Arian Foster piqued my interest so I looked into it further and it does seem as though he will rotate carries with Ben Tate.  Tates stats aren't that great because he is traditionally used as a battering ram to run down the clock when they are ahead.  He had 69 rushing attempts last year but 39 were in the second half, 42 were whilst his team was ahead and only 10 were in the oppositions red zone and he managed to get 2 TDs from those 10 carries.  He should get a chance tonight and it seems to me he is a big price at 15/2 with Ladbrokes to be the Texans first TD scorer and also at 9/5 to score anytime.  If he gets double digit carries, which he surely will, they both have to be value.

[Omm]

BMW Championship

Nick Watney with bwin is 13.5 (25/2) top ten finish and 6.3 top twenty finish, bwin seem to be the only ones with the top 20 market, but what is interesting is that nearly all the others have him priced top ten as  6 to 8/1.

On the face of it the 6 to 8/1 looks too short based on his results, so bwin might have the price right,  however just before the Barclays he got a new coach, in that tournament he finish 9th with some consistent scoring, in the next he finished 35th with 1 bad round of 72  but was within 3 shots of top 20.

By his own admission it has been his putting letting him down and is obviously working on this. He also has a history of finishing the season strong. (He won the Barclays last year and the another afterwards but had a weak start to the season)

I would recommend £10 top 10 bwin @ 13.5  £20 top 20 bwin @ 6.3 and £2.50 e/w @ 110/1 1st 5 with b365.

Others on here will have more experience than me on Golf and I may be well off the mark with whether the value is with bwin or the others have it wrong. Either way I've put it out there and it's up to the elders to decide, either way I'm on myself so good luck.

Edit sorry he is 46.5 with bwin for top 5 which is obv better than the 110/1 1 st 5 with b365.