Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Is there a reason tips for tikay doesn't include poker staking?

Presumably the same reason we don't buy shares, speculate in currencies or stake people to stand overnight and buy Jimmy Choos.

rofl.

I was trying to be a little more subtle........

Much better reply than mine though. WP.

[scotty2hatty]

Would like to suggest a small £15 outlay on tonight's UFC event, UFC 166.

No bet for me in the main event where Velasquez defends his HW title against Dos Santos in what is their third meeting, instead I've plumped for a couple of bets that I think are a little overpriced and at standout prices.

Tim Boetsch is 8/15 in the outrights but I really think his most likely method of victory is via decision. Four of his last five wins have came via decision and stylistically his fight with Dolloway looks set for a 'grindy' 3 rounds, priced at 15/8 elsewhere I think Paddy Power's 13/5 is a good bet and is worth £10. Even if I've read the fight wrong and it turns out to be a slobber-knocker, we'd still have a chance of it going the distance where obviously Boetsch is the most likely winner.

Secondly, I propose £5 on an old favourite, Roy Nelson. He fights Cormier, who looks classy and is a big 1/5 favourite but we can't deny some stats and pricing issues. Nelson is a 4/1 shot but it seems his only feasible way of winning this fight is by landing a big shot in the opening round and finishing Cormier. Thus BetVictor's 10/1 on Nelson winning in the first round is worth the small investment I suggested, with the same bet shorter everywhere else and 6/1 in places.

Nelson has 12 of 19 career wins in the first round, including his last 3, and 7 of his last 8 - just to back up how likely it is that if he was to pull off the upset, it would be in that manner.

Suggest £10 Tim Boetsch to win by decision @ 13/5 Paddy Power
Suggest £5 Roy Nelson to win in R1 @ 10/1 BetVictor

Some other thoughts on BetPal but more fillers than anything: http://www.betpal.com/ufc-betting-tips-ufc-166-velasquez-vs-dos-santos-3

[Bad Beat]

Victor Dartnall was saying Tartak may need a couple of runs, but a good judge put that one up to me at 14/1 last night. If I didn't hate Jonjo so much I would be with you on Johns Spirit. I am very wary of it's bad jumping though.

 It would be a shame to have a non-runner here but with 16 runners and despite the doubts I think it should be each-way if we're betting.

 In the 4.25pm we also have to worry about the dreaded 15 (and a rule 4 with some firms) as Man of Leisure will be taken out.

[Tal]

A friend of a friend says he's got a cracking deal on a second hand ford cortina.



Should pay for itself in no time. At that price, it's a steal.

"You make contact with your customer. Understand their needs. And then flog them something they could well do without".

[tikay]

While all eyes are on Ascot I am keen on the 2.35 at Cheltenham

Picking a Jonjo horse is always fraught with "issues", is today the day etc!

A horse I watched a lot last year was Johns Spirit, it ran some cracking races but looked like it would be better this year. He was running a blinder at the festival until he walked through 4 out, but still finished well. Jonjos all seem to be trying and are in good form. I expect this horse to keep progressing and end up off a much higher mark by the end of the year

Recommend £20 win @ Sportingbet 10-1

in same race, one to have Chompy rolfing on his kitchen lino. Have a saver(£5) on Tartak at 14s @ Ladbrokes. His handicap mark is so low. It also ran a real stormer in this race last year and with a new trainer, I hope to see another big run.

It went 9/1, & then Sporting Bet maxed me @ £4!

I can get 9/1 BMU, & now Mr Channing suggests the race is a suitable EW medium.

So, is 9/1 acceptable, & win or EW?

We got on Tartak @ 14/1, (WIN) but only for the suggested £5.


BET PLACED

(Tartak only so far)

[tikay]

Victor Dartnall was saying Tartak may need a couple of runs, but a good judge put that one up to me at 14/1 last night. If I didn't hate Jonjo so much I would be with you on Johns Spirit. I am very wary of it's bad jumping though.

 It would be a shame to have a non-runner here but with 16 runners and despite the doubts I think it should be each-way if we're betting.

 In the 4.25pm we also have to worry about the dreaded 15 (and a rule 4 with some firms) as Man of Leisure will be taken out.

Thanks Neil.

We just had a £5 saver on Tartak, down to Lord Adz, would you suggest a little more would be advisable? EW presumably, too?

[BigAdz]

Happy to go ew Tikay.

Would, and hav,e had far more, but when betting with yours prefer to be more subjective. I do like his chances though for sure

[tikay]

Would like to suggest a small £15 outlay on tonight's UFC event, UFC 166.

No bet for me in the main event where Velasquez defends his HW title against Dos Santos in what is their third meeting, instead I've plumped for a couple of bets that I think are a little overpriced and at standout prices.

Tim Boetsch is 8/15 in the outrights but I really think his most likely method of victory is via decision. Four of his last five wins have came via decision and stylistically his fight with Dolloway looks set for a 'grindy' 3 rounds, priced at 15/8 elsewhere I think Paddy Power's 13/5 is a good bet and is worth £10. Even if I've read the fight wrong and it turns out to be a slobber-knocker, we'd still have a chance of it going the distance where obviously Boetsch is the most likely winner.

Secondly, I propose £5 on an old favourite, Roy Nelson. He fights Cormier, who looks classy and is a big 1/5 favourite but we can't deny some stats and pricing issues. Nelson is a 4/1 shot but it seems his only feasible way of winning this fight is by landing a big shot in the opening round and finishing Cormier. Thus BetVictor's 10/1 on Nelson winning in the first round is worth the small investment I suggested, with the same bet shorter everywhere else and 6/1 in places.

Nelson has 12 of 19 career wins in the first round, including his last 3, and 7 of his last 8 - just to back up how likely it is that if he was to pull off the upset, it would be in that manner.

Suggest £10 Tim Boetsch to win by decision @ 13/5 Paddy Power
Suggest £5 Roy Nelson to win in R1 @ 10/1 BetVictor

Some other thoughts on BetPal but more fillers than anything: http://www.betpal.com/ufc-betting-tips-ufc-166-velasquez-vs-dos-santos-3

Great work, Scott, thank you.

We are on board, exactly as above.

Good luck us.

BETS PLACED

[Nico29]

I don't hate the Gerrard bet.

Like how he'll be on huge high after england.

Like how he'll be esp looking to score his 100th goal.

Like how the game is always a cert for goals galore, and how newcastle look a lil shaky and pool look a lil good.

Especially like double figs plus, wld expect 9-1 max.


There's norm a way around restrictions and you can norm even modify the bet to get yrslf a better price/edge too.

He's 11-1 with betfair sportsbook to be fgs.

They also refund as a freebet up to £25 yr losing first bet you place on one of the first, last or anytime markets-just one bet in total-if a cashback concession-which you choose clicks in.

Most likely to happen is draw (oddswise) so I chose that one and would advise that.

If you are desperate to get the place 'value of the 3.33-1` 365 give, you can get an absolute smidgen less with either lads or corals at 10-3 anytime.


Rec:

£25 Gerrard fgs@11-1 betfair sportsbook-make sure you choose yr concession first by clicking on the promo option.

£25 Gerrard anytime@10-3 lads/coral.

[tikay]

Happy to go ew Tikay.

Would, and hav,e had far more, but when betting with yours prefer to be more subjective. I do like his chances though for sure

Done, £20 EW @ 9/1, thanks.

We may have a bit more on the other one if Neil agrees, we only have a £5 win on the saver at present.


BET PLACED

[Doobs]

Doobs is on Soccer AM this morning

Doobs is Michael Duberry in real life?

It's not like he made a secret of it when choosing his username

I can confirm it is like I made a secret of it.

[Tal]

Doobs is on Soccer AM this morning

Doobs is Michael Duberry in real life?

It's not like he made a secret of it when choosing his username

I can confirm it is like I made a secret of it.

Hitting the Cash Out button as we speak

[tikay]

I don't hate the Gerrard bet.

Like how he'll be on huge high after england.

Like how he'll be esp looking to score his 100th goal.

Like how the game is always a cert for goals galore, and how newcastle look a lil shaky and pool look a lil good.

Especially like double figs plus, wld expect 9-1 max.


There's norm a way around restrictions and you can norm even modify the bet to get yrslf a better price/edge too.

He's 11-1 with betfair sportsbook to be fgs.

They also refund as a freebet up to £25 yr losing first bet you place on one of the first, last or anytime markets-just one bet in total-if a cashback concession-which you choose clicks in.

Most likely to happen is draw (oddswise) so I chose that one and would advise that.

If you are desperate to get the place 'value of the 3.33-1` 365 give, you can get an absolute smidgen less with either lads or corals at 10-3 anytime.


Rec:

£25 Gerrard fgs@11-1 betfair sportsbook-make sure you choose yr concession first by clicking on the promo option.

£25 Gerrard anytime@10-3 lads/coral.

Very clever, thanks.

Like most of that, EXCEPT the enboldened part, he is a pro footballer, & a good one, he'll try just as hard for his 27th, 100th, or 139th imo. I don't buy the sentimental part at all.

So, if we remove that part, would you still recommend the same bet?

[Nico29]

Well of crse you don't have to agree with that bit, I still think it adds a couple of extra % to his play anyway*

But forgetting that yes I still rec it, 11-1 with a decent promo is just too big.

100-30 on anytime is neutral on betfair too and with over 2.5 at 1.7 should prob be flicked in too.

*From reading his autobiography he seems someone who sets himself firm goals, I just believe it will perhaps cause him to be a lil greedy on occasion when he might not be normally in front of goal.

[tikay]

Well of crse you don't have to agree with that bit, I still think it adds a couple of extra % to his play anyway*

But forgetting that yes I still rec it, 11-1 with a decent promo is just too big.

100-30 on anytime is neutral on betfair too and with over 2.5 at 1.7 should prob be flicked in too.

*From reading his autobiography he seems someone who sets himself firm goals, I just believe it will perhaps cause him to be a lil greedy on occasion when he might not be normally in front of goal.

OK, I'll see if I can get on board, the bet has to go down to pokerfan though, but thanks for the strategy suggestion.