Tips for Tikay

[Longy]

Seems a little silly to write off a sport just because of past results where the mistakes weren't necessarily correlated to the sport itself. I mean if haralabos voulgaris started offering tips in here are we gonna tell him sorry but we have a lost a bag last year

[tikay]

Seems a little silly to write off a sport just because of past results where the mistakes weren't necessarily correlated to the sport itself. I mean if haralabos voulgaris started offering tips in here are we gonna tell him sorry but we have a lost a bag last year

We have not written it off, I have made that clear, but we have to learn lessons, surely that is a pre-requisite? I can't convince myself that the problem is just variance.

All the bets are still there for anyone to view, if they want to interrogate them & find the reason, go ahead, I've no problem with that.

I'm really surprised at the apparent consensus that it is fine to drop that sort of money & not self-examine carefully & constructively to try & find why.

[tikay]

Samoa duly whopped the CESM tonight, 22-6, but alas, oh no Antonio.

[Dubai]

Obviously just ran bad in nba. Could pick blind and have a better roi. Examining bets is fine but to suggest the main factor is anything other than variance is completely wrong. Just in the same way that you have ran well in others sports, am obvious example Singhee and his baseball stuff.

[redarmi]

I think there is a good bet in the NFL tonight.  It appears with Stan James and SkyBet so isn't a rec as such but thought I would mention it for those that fancy a sweat tonight.  The bet is u21.5 Miami Dolphins points @ 10/11.  Quite a few reasons for it.  The first and most obvious reason is that the line on the game has moved down and the correct number for this is 20.5 now.  That might not seen a big difference from 21.5 but actually it is huge because NFL teams score a total of 21 points a lot because it is 3 TD's.  Teams score exactly 21 points 3.95% of the time.  So if we assume, using the game line now that they should score under and over 20.5 50% of the time then if we add 3.95% to the 50 we can see that they will score under 21.5 53.95% of the time.  So basic maths gives us a nearly 3% edge (53.95*1.91=103).  I think there are good reasons to like it anyway though and think it may be worth even more than that.  The first is the obvious fallout of the accusations of bullying in the Dolphin locker room.  This team has been a media circus for the past week or so and it is hard to believe that they haven't been distracted from getting ready for this game.  Some of football is about naked aggression and that may get vented tonight on the defensive side of the ball but offense takes more nuancing and preparation.  They are also with two of their offensive linemen in Incognito and Martin.   These are guys that defend the QB.  They were already on target to give up a huge amount of sacks this year and it is hard to see how it is going to get any better tonight without their leader in Incognito.  They also have to face the best corner in the business tonight in Darrelle Revis.  Week in and week out Revis shuts out the best receivers in the game and tonight he should be able to neutralise one of Hartline or, more likely, Wallace.  For all these reasons I think they will likely run the ball a lot more than before and that naturally eats up more time and leads to less points and also TB have n awful run defense.  Everything just points to Miami struggling a bit tonight to put a lot of points on the board.

[horseplayer]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/non-league/conference-premier/cambridge-utd-v-aldershot/asian-handicap

BET SUGGESTION

£30 Cambridge -0.5 on asian handicap 1.92 with ladbrokes


Not really sure why lads are quite out of line with this handicap tommorow night

[Tal]

Have I Got Stories About The Camel For You just starting on BBC1.

[Tal]

Red, if Miami are struggling to score and Tampa, whilst poor, have the ability to score points, is Tampa to win outright worthy of consideration? Would the punters generally not oppose them, especially against a popular team?

[redarmi]

Seems a little silly to write off a sport just because of past results where the mistakes weren't necessarily correlated to the sport itself. I mean if haralabos voulgaris started offering tips in here are we gonna tell him sorry but we have a lost a bag last year

We have not written it off, I have made that clear, but we have to learn lessons, surely that is a pre-requisite? I can't convince myself that the problem is just variance.

All the bets are still there for anyone to view, if they want to interrogate them & find the reason, go ahead, I've no problem with that.

I'm really surprised at the apparent consensus that it is fine to drop that sort of money & not self-examine carefully & constructively to try & find why.

Self examination and constructively trying to find out why is fine but we also try and maintain some level of personal tact in Fred too.  I put up an NBA bet last year on Miami against the Spurs where the Spurs were basically resting all of their players and we bet Miami -6 and it closed -11.  It is probably the best bet I have had in the past year and it lost.  That is variance but a lot of what we did wasn't variance and I remember some discussions at the time about whether the bets we were placing were really value.  You can generally test that by checking the line/price you take and whether the closing line is different.  A good judge will beat the closing price on 80-90% of their bets.  We can also test the justifications the poster is putting up for the bet.  If it is that that team won their last six we now know that is pretty much pointless these days as a methodology but if it is Jeff's scouting and knowledge of young rookies we definitely have an edge.  I work with the guy that leads the market in these kind of NBA props.  Jeff is a better judge (so is our Mam but that is a different point) and I would be loathe not to bet them because "we do badly at the nba"  Surely a better approach would be to show how much we have learnt along the way by showing we have gained the ability to turn it into a winning sport.  That would be the ultimate triumph of Fred.

As for the various points about golf.  I can only assume John Maynard Keynes was talking about golf betting when he said "in the long run we are all dead"

[TightEnd]

Red, if Miami are struggling to score and Tampa, whilst poor, have the ability to score points, is Tampa to win outright worthy of consideration? Would the punters generally not oppose them, especially against a popular team?

http://www.betpal.com/miami-dolphins-at-tampa-bay-buccaneers-nfl-monday-night-football-betting-preview

I thought so. Home underdog against a team with problems putting up points. Tampa have much more talent than their record, with some of the worst coaching and schemes in the league

Next season's Kansas City/turnround team

[redarmi]

Red, if Miami are struggling to score and Tampa, whilst poor, have the ability to score points, is Tampa to win outright worthy of consideration? Would the punters generally not oppose them, especially against a popular team?

Yes it is.  I think it is a great bet to be honest but, from a Fred perspective, I prefer to put up and discuss bets can explain a concept or an idea and how you can make a profit from that if that makes sense especially on markets available with smaller firms that I can't really get on with anymore.  I guess I am just a bitter and twisted individual and like to continue to wreak revenge on those firms that consider me (and most of my family) to be persona non grata these days. Bbesides if I put up every bet I had you would all be bored to tears by now!

[tikay]

Red, if Miami are struggling to score and Tampa, whilst poor, have the ability to score points, is Tampa to win outright worthy of consideration? Would the punters generally not oppose them, especially against a popular team?

Yes it is.  I think it is a great bet to be honest but, from a Fred perspective, I prefer to put up and discuss bets can explain a concept or an idea and how you can make a profit from that if that makes sense especially on markets available with smaller firms that I can't really get on with anymore.  I guess I am just a bitter and twisted individual and like to continue to wreak revenge on those firms that consider me (and most of my family) to be persona non grata these days. Bbesides if I put up every bet I had you would all be bored to tears by now!

Please keep doing that, it's golden, & everyone can leqan from those situations when you explain them properly in the manner you do. (The 21 point thing for example).

[Dubai]

Ha just read all the nfl stuff after Demps talked me into having 3 lumps on his beloved Dolphins!

[tikay]

Obviously just ran bad in nba. Could pick blind and have a better roi. Examining bets is fine but to suggest the main factor is anything other than variance is completely wrong. Just in the same way that you have ran well in others sports, am obvious example Singhee and his baseball stuff.

I struggled to get past the enbodened part, because that is what I keep thinking!

It's a bit awkward & out of line for me to disagree with a seasoned punter like you, but I'm still not convinced it was variance, & think at the time I had not grasped the "value" concept. Bet after bet was "Team A always score over x-ty points, they have done 6 matches in a row, so they must do so again" sort of stuff, when of course the lines had been sdubsequently adjusted. Nowadays they go straight in the muck, pre-flop. 

[tikay]

Ha just read all the nfl stuff after Demps talked me into having 3 lumps on his beloved Dolphins!

Lol, ignore him, he's a complete waste.