Tips for Tikay

[Kmac84]

Tikay, can I suggest one before team news comes out.  

Morton were 11/8 earlier in the week and even first thing this morning that could still be found but there seems to have been a bit of a move for them.  The 5/4 with Ladbrokes is a stand out the now.  I opposed them last time when they played Queen of the South but by all accounts it wasn't the worse game they had played and although failing to score they did have a number of shots which is better that what they had being doing.   Morton were unlucky last season and for much of the season were title contenders this season has been poor but they might be about to turn the corner.  £30 @ 5/4 seems reasonable here.  If we can't get the 5/4 I would be inclined to leave it.  

They are at home to Livingston who are woeful.

What are your thoughts on opposing Celtic today? I'm sure you suggested opposing them following CL games however the trend has shifted this season with all post CL games being won but points dropped in 3 of 5 games pre CL including 2 at home.

Celtic players will very much have Milan on Tuesday at the back of there minds and Aberdeen have been in good form winning 4 in a row before their defeat to Hearts last time out which looked like a bit of freak result based on the highlights of the game.

7/1 Aberdeen looks fair to me.

7/1 is definitely fair.  This Celtic team is far weaker than last year.  Depends if Lennon tinkers with the team, I heard him say yesterday he wouldn't but he's said that befiore then tried to freshen it up a little.  Celtic seem really weak in front of goal.  Aberdeen seem to have managed a number of results but without scoring many themselves.  I would be more inclined to play unders if I was going to bet in this match.  But more of a watching brief today.

One thing I would point out is in previous years Aberdeen would have been best priced around 10's they are better  than they have been for years and Celtic are worse. So neven though on the face of it seems big it could just be a decent midpoint for the books.

[Nico29]

Tikay, can I suggest one before team news comes out.  

Morton were 11/8 earlier in the week and even first thing this morning that could still be found but there seems to have been a bit of a move for them.  The 5/4 with Ladbrokes is a stand out the now.  I opposed them last time when they played Queen of the South but by all accounts it wasn't the worse game they had played and although failing to score they did have a number of shots which is better that what they had being doing.   Morton were unlucky last season and for much of the season were title contenders this season has been poor but they might be about to turn the corner.  £30 @ 5/4 seems reasonable here.  If we can't get the 5/4 I would be inclined to leave it.  

They are at home to Livingston who are woeful.

Morton are 2.6 on betfair+8/5 with sportingbet.

[tikay]

Tikay, can I suggest one before team news comes out.  

Morton were 11/8 earlier in the week and even first thing this morning that could still be found but there seems to have been a bit of a move for them.  The 5/4 with Ladbrokes is a stand out the now.  I opposed them last time when they played Queen of the South but by all accounts it wasn't the worse game they had played and although failing to score they did have a number of shots which is better that what they had being doing.   Morton were unlucky last season and for much of the season were title contenders this season has been poor but they might be about to turn the corner.  £30 @ 5/4 seems reasonable here.  If we can't get the 5/4 I would be inclined to leave it.  

They are at home to Livingston who are woeful.

Sporting Bet still go a standout 8/5, & so we had some of that.

Thanks Mr Mac.

BET PLACED

[Kmac84]

Tikay, can I suggest one before team news comes out.  

Morton were 11/8 earlier in the week and even first thing this morning that could still be found but there seems to have been a bit of a move for them.  The 5/4 with Ladbrokes is a stand out the now.  I opposed them last time when they played Queen of the South but by all accounts it wasn't the worse game they had played and although failing to score they did have a number of shots which is better that what they had being doing.   Morton were unlucky last season and for much of the season were title contenders this season has been poor but they might be about to turn the corner.  £30 @ 5/4 seems reasonable here.  If we can't get the 5/4 I would be inclined to leave it.  

They are at home to Livingston who are woeful.

Morton are 2.6 on betfair+8/5 with sportingbet.

Weird.  They were all shorter when I checked before posting.   Betty was 2.23. 

Morton players going for the Christmas bonus and lumped the lot on Livingston?

[tikay]

Suarez is best price 9-1 to score 2 or more with PP, just beats BF and is at least a few points bigger than next with most going 5-1 and even a 9/2.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/everton-v-liverpool/to-score-2-or-more-goals

We all know what he has been scoring since he has been back, just whether 9-1 is value or are all the others too short?

Think it might be worth a couple of quid at that price. £5 recommend.

Thanks Omm, seems a very reasonable fiver's worth.

BET PLACED

[JoeBeevers]

Our homer ref, Carl Cheffers, has a game we can bet on this week

Tennessee at Oakland

Oakland are modest home underdogs

Tennessee, as we know, are no great shakes

Both are playing back up quarterbacks

Both have losing records

Even leaving the referee aside, I am surprised Oakland are 1.5 point dogs


Updating the data for Mr Cheffers

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/officials/ChefCa0r.htm

Over six years as the lead official he has taken charge of 83 games

In the last four years, when the stats go haywire in favour of the home side for this ref, the % for home wins for his games are

2010 .667  9 of 15
2011 .875  14 of 16
2012 .75    9 of 12
2013 .667  6 of 9

total 38 of 52 home wins that he has refereed or 73%

across the NFL for all games

Home win percentages are

2010 55.3%
2011 57.5%
2012 57.1%
2013 39.5%

and this runs at 57.5% since the year 2000


In his nine games this year, the visiting team has been penalised 65 times, the home team 45 times

Last year, 92 penalties against the visitors, 82 against the home team


I quite like Oakland outright at Evens anyway. Add in Mr Cheffers, and I think we have a bet. Something like £50 at evens

Obviously an autobet but can we please not take Evens.  Pinnacle are +106 which is a tad better than 21/20.  Not having an account with them is throwing money away week in week out.

I don't know if this is a bit naughty. It probably is so if any mods remove this post I completely understand.

If you don't have a Pinnacle account you really should have one. Both Neil and I would be grateful if you opened it via this page:

http://www.bettingemporium.com/pages/view/free-bets

Thanks Joe,

I'll happily do so, but I need to check first if my Pinnacle Accoint is already open. I set it up some time ago, but they requested scanned documents, which I did not sort out (don't have access to a scanner).

Let me see where I am with ther Accouint, & if it is already set up, awaiting docs, or whether I can start again, in which case, yes, I'll use that link.

redarmi is right, of course, it makes no sense not to have a Pinnacle Account.

I wonder if they will apply for a uk gambling license when the new legislation comes in?

I went thru the ID hassle using photos rather than scanning - they were very pernickity and as the card has run out, can't really be bothered going through the hassle again (particularly if they are going to stop taking bets from the uk)

I have an email that says they are in the process of 'finalizing (their) application to the UK Gambling Commission'. So they will be ready for when the new legislation comes out.

[Teacake]

Tikay, can I suggest one before team news comes out.  

Morton were 11/8 earlier in the week and even first thing this morning that could still be found but there seems to have been a bit of a move for them.  The 5/4 with Ladbrokes is a stand out the now.  I opposed them last time when they played Queen of the South but by all accounts it wasn't the worse game they had played and although failing to score they did have a number of shots which is better that what they had being doing.   Morton were unlucky last season and for much of the season were title contenders this season has been poor but they might be about to turn the corner.  £30 @ 5/4 seems reasonable here.  If we can't get the 5/4 I would be inclined to leave it.  

They are at home to Livingston who are woeful.

What are your thoughts on opposing Celtic today? I'm sure you suggested opposing them following CL games however the trend has shifted this season with all post CL games being won but points dropped in 3 of 5 games pre CL including 2 at home.

Celtic players will very much have Milan on Tuesday at the back of there minds and Aberdeen have been in good form winning 4 in a row before their defeat to Hearts last time out which looked like a bit of freak result based on the highlights of the game.

7/1 Aberdeen looks fair to me.

7/1 is definitely fair.  This Celtic team is far weaker than last year.  Depends if Lennon tinkers with the team, I heard him say yesterday he wouldn't but he's said that befiore then tried to freshen it up a little.  Celtic seem really weak in front of goal.  Aberdeen seem to have managed a number of results but without scoring many themselves.  I would be more inclined to play unders if I was going to bet in this match.  But more of a watching brief today.

One thing I would point out is in previous years Aberdeen would have been best priced around 10's they are better  than they have been for years and Celtic are worse. So neven though on the face of it seems big it could just be a decent midpoint for the books.

I'm a Celtic fan mate and pretty much agree with all of that, I was thinking 7/1 might be a bet but wanted another view on it. Celtic have been really poor in almost all the pre CL games, it's very noticeable watching them but your probably right 7/1 is more than likely fair rather than value.

[Snowball]

Tikay, can I suggest one before team news comes out.  

Morton were 11/8 earlier in the week and even first thing this morning that could still be found but there seems to have been a bit of a move for them.  The 5/4 with Ladbrokes is a stand out the now.  I opposed them last time when they played Queen of the South but by all accounts it wasn't the worse game they had played and although failing to score they did have a number of shots which is better that what they had being doing.   Morton were unlucky last season and for much of the season were title contenders this season has been poor but they might be about to turn the corner.  £30 @ 5/4 seems reasonable here.  If we can't get the 5/4 I would be iclined to leave it.  

They are at home to Livingston who are woeful.

Morton are 2.6 on betfair+8/5 with sportingbet.

Weird.  They were all shorter when I checked before posting.   Betty was 2.23. 

Morton players going for the Christmas bonus and lumped the lot on Livingston?

If rumours were true then it wouldn't be the first time, I seen one of the main culprits at the time is in Jail.

[tikay]

Tikay, can I suggest one before team news comes out.  

Morton were 11/8 earlier in the week and even first thing this morning that could still be found but there seems to have been a bit of a move for them.  The 5/4 with Ladbrokes is a stand out the now.  I opposed them last time when they played Queen of the South but by all accounts it wasn't the worse game they had played and although failing to score they did have a number of shots which is better that what they had being doing.   Morton were unlucky last season and for much of the season were title contenders this season has been poor but they might be about to turn the corner.  £30 @ 5/4 seems reasonable here.  If we can't get the 5/4 I would be inclined to leave it.  

They are at home to Livingston who are woeful.

What are your thoughts on opposing Celtic today? I'm sure you suggested opposing them following CL games however the trend has shifted this season with all post CL games being won but points dropped in 3 of 5 games pre CL including 2 at home.

Celtic players will very much have Milan on Tuesday at the back of there minds and Aberdeen have been in good form winning 4 in a row before their defeat to Hearts last time out which looked like a bit of freak result based on the highlights of the game.

7/1 Aberdeen looks fair to me.

Thanks, there seems a degree of warmth suggesting 7/1 is a reasonable price, almost a Mini-Banzai, these don't win every day, but 7/1 seems good, so we had £15.

BET PLACED

[tikay]

Suarez is best price 9-1 to score 2 or more with PP, just beats BF and is at least a few points bigger than next with most going 5-1 and even a 9/2.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/everton-v-liverpool/to-score-2-or-more-goals

We all know what he has been scoring since he has been back, just whether 9-1 is value or are all the others too short?

Think it might be worth a couple of quid at that price. £5 recommend.

SWEAT ON

With just 30 minutes gone, Liverpool lead 2-1, & Suarez has his first of the brace we need.

[BigAdz]

ZZ, stone bonking last. No excuses. Apols

[Tal]

ZZ, stone bonking last. No excuses. Apols

Seemed to be jumping like a chaser early on. No flat speed left

[Kmac84]

I just wrote a wordy post lost my 3G and post disappeared.

Montrose 11/10 I made them a shade of odds on.
Stranraer 8/13 I made them 4/7 would have backed them at shorter.

Mini-Banzai? Don't know what that means but if I have it right then Brechin @ 7/2 are bigger than they should be.

[Snowball]

Celtic full strength, I can't see us losing today and im not sure the lads above suggested it was one for Fred but never mind.
Id agree that unders at 23/20 looks more appealing.

[tikay]

Celtic full strength, I can't see us losing today and im not sure the lads above suggested it was one for Fred but never mind.
Id agree that unders at 23/20 looks more appealing.

Ugh, my bad, no worries, too late now, and can't be awful @ 7/1.