Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

it is to be booked

7-2 looks ok to me

Fwiw which may not be much Taylor the ref has booked Huddlestone 3 times in the 4 times he has been in charge of games he has played

He is also one of the better refs if you are having a cards bet

[Doobs]

Have no thoughts on the race personally, but at the time of posting, it was joint beat price with hills.

Thanks Aaron. We all seem undecided, hard to know what to do really, might just leave it, if we back one and get it wrong, it'll feel horrible. I don't like horrible.

I am not undecided, I have had a bet and posted it.  If we are choosing between 3 bets where they all lose 10% long run, then we walk away.  If we have a choice of 3 bets where all make 15% long run we shouldn't.

You have one horse that has dropped a chunk in the weights and has just won its first race of the season, one who has 3 in a row, another that has had setbacks but won last time etc.  They all have chances, and don't think there is a clear one.  Despite that we should bet anyway.  Maths wins.

Go Aachen 2/1 or Fine Parchment 3/1 on maths pls.

[horseplayer]

2 first goalscorer bets i like both in same game

Blackburn v Blackpool

Rudy Gestede has started well for Blackburn starts upfront and is a standout 7-1 with lads worth £10/£20

Faris Haroun is a bit more speculative but scored 8 in 32 starts for mboro and scored on his debut for Genk and M'boro at 14-1 with 365 and corals he is worth a £10 to.

sorry so late

edit 9-4 anytime gestede with lads is worth a tenner as well imo

[TightEnd]

Tom Huddlestone 7/2 with BMU to be shown a card today. Left spurs on bad terms. His partner in midfield, Jake Livermore, is missing through the terms of his loan deal. They're playing 4-4-2 and that should expose him against Paulinho and Eriksen through the middle.

13/5 elsewhere. Recommend £20

Its just not value though is it?

3 career reds in 340 appearances

The rancour is that bad that he'll lose his head and turn a 8 year sample 100-1 shot into a 7-2 shot?

Any idea how many Yellows? The bet is ANY card, surely?

sorry

49 Yellow 3 red in 340

6 cards of any colour in 23 games this season

[tikay]

Have no thoughts on the race personally, but at the time of posting, it was joint beat price with hills.

Thanks Aaron. We all seem undecided, hard to know what to do really, might just leave it, if we back one and get it wrong, it'll feel horrible. I don't like horrible.

I am not undecided, I have had a bet and posted it.  If we are choosing between 3 bets where they all lose 10% long run, then we walk away.  If we have a choice of 3 bets where all make 15% long run we shouldn't.

You have one horse that has dropped a chunk in the weights and has just won its first race of the season, one who has 3 in a row, another that has had setbacks but won last time etc.  They all have chances, and don't think there is a clear one.  Despite that we should bet anyway.  Maths wins.

Go Aachen 2/1 or Fine Parchment 3/1 on maths pls.

Still no decision!

The 2/1 Aachen is gone, so I've been greedy & taken 3/1 Fine Parchment.

BET PLACED

[tikay]

Tom Huddlestone 7/2 with BMU to be shown a card today. Left spurs on bad terms. His partner in midfield, Jake Livermore, is missing through the terms of his loan deal. They're playing 4-4-2 and that should expose him against Paulinho and Eriksen through the middle.

13/5 elsewhere. Recommend £20

This generated quite a debate, but with the history, it looks OK to me.

We had £20 @ 7/2, BMU.

BET PLACED

[Tal]

Tom Huddlestone 7/2 with BMU to be shown a card today. Left spurs on bad terms. His partner in midfield, Jake Livermore, is missing through the terms of his loan deal. They're playing 4-4-2 and that should expose him against Paulinho and Eriksen through the middle.

13/5 elsewhere. Recommend £20

Its just not value though is it?

3 career reds in 340 appearances

The rancour is that bad that he'll lose his head and turn a 8 year sample 100-1 shot into a 7-2 shot?

Any idea how many Yellows? The bet is ANY card, surely?

sorry

49 Yellow 3 red in 340

6 cards of any colour in 23 games this season

Ok, so stats are broadly in accordance with 7/2. My point is team lineups make it a better price.

Not a problem if it isn't getting juices flowing. Knowing my luck, he'll get booked for taking his shirt off after scoring.

[tikay]

2 first goalscorer bets i like both in same game

Blackburn v Blackpool

Rudy Gestede has started well for Blackburn starts upfront and is a standout 7-1 with lads worth £10/£20

Faris Haroun is a bit more speculative but scored 8 in 32 starts for mboro and scored on his debut for Genk and M'boro at 14-1 with 365 and corals he is worth a £10 to.

sorry so late

edit 9-4 anytime gestede with lads is worth a tenner as well imo

Just too late John, sorry, was literally 2 seconds too late for Ladbrokes, & by the time the Corals site had flicked on & off 5 times, I was too late there, too.

[tikay]

Tom Huddlestone 7/2 with BMU to be shown a card today. Left spurs on bad terms. His partner in midfield, Jake Livermore, is missing through the terms of his loan deal. They're playing 4-4-2 and that should expose him against Paulinho and Eriksen through the middle.

13/5 elsewhere. Recommend £20

Its just not value though is it?

3 career reds in 340 appearances

The rancour is that bad that he'll lose his head and turn a 8 year sample 100-1 shot into a 7-2 shot?

Any idea how many Yellows? The bet is ANY card, surely?

sorry

49 Yellow 3 red in 340

6 cards of any colour in 23 games this season

Ok, so stats are broadly in accordance with 7/2. My point is team lineups make it a better price.

Not a problem if it isn't getting juices flowing. Knowing my luck, he'll get booked for taking his shirt off after scoring.

That is the bet justification, as I see it.

Anyway, too late, the money is down, & we are on.

[tikay]

Have no thoughts on the race personally, but at the time of posting, it was joint beat price with hills.

Thanks Aaron. We all seem undecided, hard to know what to do really, might just leave it, if we back one and get it wrong, it'll feel horrible. I don't like horrible.

I am not undecided, I have had a bet and posted it.  If we are choosing between 3 bets where they all lose 10% long run, then we walk away.  If we have a choice of 3 bets where all make 15% long run we shouldn't.

You have one horse that has dropped a chunk in the weights and has just won its first race of the season, one who has 3 in a row, another that has had setbacks but won last time etc.  They all have chances, and don't think there is a clear one.  Despite that we should bet anyway.  Maths wins.

Go Aachen 2/1 or Fine Parchment 3/1 on maths pls.

Still no decision!

The 2/1 Aachen is gone, so I've been greedy & taken 3/1 Fine Parchment.

BET PLACED

Give me a choice of 2, and I'm 3/1 to get it right......

[Doobs]

Have no thoughts on the race personally, but at the time of posting, it was joint beat price with hills.

Thanks Aaron. We all seem undecided, hard to know what to do really, might just leave it, if we back one and get it wrong, it'll feel horrible. I don't like horrible.

I am not undecided, I have had a bet and posted it.  If we are choosing between 3 bets where they all lose 10% long run, then we walk away.  If we have a choice of 3 bets where all make 15% long run we shouldn't.

You have one horse that has dropped a chunk in the weights and has just won its first race of the season, one who has 3 in a row, another that has had setbacks but won last time etc.  They all have chances, and don't think there is a clear one.  Despite that we should bet anyway.  Maths wins.

Go Aachen 2/1 or Fine Parchment 3/1 on maths pls.

Still no decision!

The 2/1 Aachen is gone, so I've been greedy & taken 3/1 Fine Parchment.

BET PLACED

Give me a choice of 2, and I'm 3/1 to get it right......

Meh.  All 4 looked like they could win at one point. We had a good bet, next one win please.

Edit.  Next one non runner, so a winning day on the horses.

[Marky147]

That's what you get for going against Tony Bloom!

[tikay]

Two Hills mobile £25s tomorrow.

15.20 Wetherby Shutthefrontdoor 13/8.  Currently beating Betfair, so guess it isn't there in the morning, but maths is forgiving if you have to take lower.

and my old favourite.

14.05 Saphir du Rhea 7/4 at Ffos Las.  You can also get that at 2/1 with best odds guarantee in a few places.  Given it is 3/3.1 on Betfair it doesn't look so bad either, but probably not for thread. 

How forgiving are the Maths?

Shutthefrontdoor currently 5/4 on Wm Hill Mobile, 2.4 on Betty.

Saphir du Rhea currently 2/1 Wm Hill Mobile, 3.1 Betfair.


Yes no to either/both, please?

Both is good, even with 5/4, the free bet makes it better than Betfair.

OK, we are all aboard.

As an aside, some mis-clickage arose, & I somehow ALSO backed a £25 Win Double on them. Not for Fred, it has to go in the Misclickage File.

2 BETS PLACED

Shuthefrontdoor is a NON RUNNER, so our single on that is void.

What happens to my misclick (off-Thread) Double - settled as a win single, presumably?

[tikay]

I'm off to the allotment, when I return, I'll tot up this afternoon's football winnings.

Have a good afternoon, whatever you've backed.

[Doobs]

Two Hills mobile £25s tomorrow.

15.20 Wetherby Shutthefrontdoor 13/8.  Currently beating Betfair, so guess it isn't there in the morning, but maths is forgiving if you have to take lower.

and my old favourite.

14.05 Saphir du Rhea 7/4 at Ffos Las.  You can also get that at 2/1 with best odds guarantee in a few places.  Given it is 3/3.1 on Betfair it doesn't look so bad either, but probably not for thread. 

How forgiving are the Maths?

Shutthefrontdoor currently 5/4 on Wm Hill Mobile, 2.4 on Betty.

Saphir du Rhea currently 2/1 Wm Hill Mobile, 3.1 Betfair.


Yes no to either/both, please?

Both is good, even with 5/4, the free bet makes it better than Betfair.

OK, we are all aboard.

As an aside, some mis-clickage arose, & I somehow ALSO backed a £25 Win Double on them. Not for Fred, it has to go in the Misclickage File.

2 BETS PLACED

Shuthefrontdoor is a NON RUNNER, so our single on that is void.

What happens to my misclick (off-Thread) Double - settled as a win single, presumably?

Think you should declare all the Misclicks.  Has one ever lost?