Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

Nobody guessed the Fred Birthday Boy yet?

He'll be VERY disappointed, but it may spur him on to greater things. 

You talk about bets he has posted, is it more a series of different ways to incinerate money?

In not so many words, yes.

We met in Vegas, he was wearing killer heels?

You would have likely bumped into him in Vegas, yes.

Shoes? No idea. I'm not one for shoe fetish stuff myself.

It was June last year, but I believe I was wearing a tassled tan loafer. No heel whatsoever. The chunky stacked heels were in the hotel room instead.

[TightEnd]

"Budget Buzzword Bingo   Tough Decisions   6/4   25"

did that win or lose please?

[arbboy]

"Budget Buzzword Bingo   Tough Decisions   6/4   25"

did that win or lose please?

Lost i think. 

[Nico29]

Sips of water, Twitter mentions, how long......

I'm reminded of being told of the chap that would bet on anything, including two flies climbing up a wall. He had nothing on us.

We'll be betting on women's frocks & the like next.

I'm sure when Camel started all this, it was the direction he hoped it would go in..........

Doubt Keith would have a problem with betting on anything which he felt had value.

The first bet itt was on the Oscars.

[redarmi]

There is an interesting spot in the last race at Kempton tonight.  It appears as though the Ann Stokell yard is going for a touch with its horses owned by Stephen Arnold.  The horses, for information, are Profile Star 7/4 form 8-1 in the 330 Ling, Decent Fella 2/1 from double figures in the 440 Ling, We have a Dream 3/1 from 9/1 640 Kemp and Brown Pete odds on from 9/2 with firms but trading at 2.70 on Betfair.  It is the last horse that is interesting to me.  It is running from the number 1 stall at Kempton and it is almost impossible to win from there outside of small fields and this race has 14 runners.  Andrew Mount, who writes for GG, and is very good at this kind of analysis says only 1 winner has come from the 1 box since 2012 and thought it was opposable at 9-2.  Now obviously that isn't the case as the horse is off for it's life but at short prices I think it is lay and if the others in the gamble win and it is layable at Evens or something ridiculous I think it would be a great bet to lay.  I have laid a small amount at the current prices but will definitely go in again if it is too short.

[Graham C]

"Budget Buzzword Bingo   Tough Decisions   6/4   25"

did that win or lose please?

Lost i think.  

Laddies have settled as a loss.  Bit disappointing, he said difficult decisions a couple of times and also hard decisions I think.

[Tal]

Hopefully, Fred can see a few of these in the future:

[BigAdz]

Sips of water, Twitter mentions, how long......

I'm reminded of being told of the chap that would bet on anything, including two flies climbing up a wall. He had nothing on us.

We'll be betting on women's frocks & the like next.

I'm sure when Camel started all this, it was the direction he hoped it would go in..........

Doubt Keith would have a problem with betting on anything which he felt had value.

The first bet itt was on the Oscars.

Agreed. But just because someone thinks a word or statement is value in a speech.......hmmm, not so sure. All about opinions though I grant you.

[Nico29]

If a horse is 16/1 and you make it 8/1-it is value in your eyes.

If someone mentioning something is 16/1 and I make it 8/1-it is value in my eyes.

Don't see the problem.

Some forms of gambling are more glamorous than others.

[BigAdz]

If a horse is 16/1 and you make it 8/1-it is value in your eyes.

If I think someone mentioning something is 16/1 and I make it 8/1-it is value in my eyes.

Don't see the problem.

Some forms of gambling are more glamorous than others.

Bit more substance to a statement when collateral form etc can be used as a back up to it though. As I said, just my opinion, and happy to debate it.

[Tal]

I do think there is an argument for betting in fringe markets with slim overrounds precisely because they are opinions. In football markets, you're often playing against a bookie with a wealth of data and you have a very tough task making a profit by saying "I fancy Sheffield United tonight".

What I particularly liked about the chess market last night was that there is so very little data for the bookie to base their prices on because the two players have essentially avoided each other/been kept apart since 2006 and there's only half a dozen exhibition games between them since. Marathonbet were basically guessing what would happen and I reckoned they guessed wrongly. As it happened, the players came flying out of their corners and went full out at each other. Topalov won but 6/4 on a decisive game made a nice profit.

Mercifully, when it comes to some of my - and others' - niche bets, Fred isn't allowed to "flick in" more than a tenner on the whole, so it's low risk stuff.

Anyway, humour me. I'm old.

[Nico29]

Anyone can see that 'collateral form though' and in the end it's still just one person's view against another's.

The budget has lots of form itself -not sure when it first started-have tried googling to no avail.

However, it is easy to go through previous years and to read speeches made by previous Chancellors and see patterns.

To discount betting on something because you might consider it frivolous is imo short sighted.

Some of the greatest edges are found in novelty markets where those setting the market can be less informed than they should be.

[Tal]

.

The budget has lots of form itself -not sure when it first started-have tried googling to no avail.
.

Early Victorian times, I think. Maybe Peel?

[Nico29]

.

The budget has lots of form itself -not sure when it first started-have tried googling to no avail.
.

Early Victorian times, I think. Maybe Peel?

Loads of form then. Twitter might not have been around then though...

[Doobs]

I really don't think there is a limit to how much we put in to niche markets, I have harangued Tikay in to putting some fairly large bets on all manner of dross over the time the thread has been in operation.  The price is far more likely to be terribly wrong in these markets than in some more common ones.  

This doesn't mean that I think we should put more than tuppence ha'penny on the budget bingo though.  The though of giving Ladbrokes money pains me a little.