Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

Emoski through in 2nd in his semi.  Tango won just got up on the line as expected toying with the field.  The other four finalists are 3 of the 4 fancied to make the final so it's not the easiest of finals but we are there but need to trap much better than tonight in the final.  Got t1 in the final which should help.

[Marky147]

It's like Adz has been bitten by a radioactive geordie

[mulhuzz]

It's like Adz has been bitten by a radioactive geordie

I'm not that bad man!

mind you, when Mike Ashley finally fucks off back to London I'll carry him there myself.

[Waz1892]

Womans super league starts tonight.

New structure of 2 leagues. First game draw up an interesting tie.

Liverpool ladies vs man city ladies.

Liverpool won the league this year winning 12 of the 14 games, scoring 46 in the process.

City were playing in the National League, but as a result of the new 2 tier system, have been "promoted"*** to the super league.

*** all teams had to reapply for their places and it seems so what controversially Man city were given a place at the expense of doncaster belles, who'll now play in WSL 2.

City finished 4th in the national.

As a result of gaining this position, as only city know how they have gone out and bought a load of new players, including a few england intls!!!

Odds for city are 9/4 with whil (cant find it on oddschecker) the 9/4 could be a mistake if the new players click?

Worth a small bet?

No love for this. Channel 426 for those that can. KO 7.45

Well avoid everyone; as you were

[gherkin]

Keep an eye on the Yorkshire v Northants odds for the game starting Sunday.  As nitty as it sounds, I'd take Yorkshire at anything above 1.5 (DNB).  Northants have only won 2 away games in the last 2 years and they were obviously in Division 2.  Yorkshire have only lost 2 home games in the same 2 year period (1 year in each division).   I like the look of Yorkshire this year (definitely best value to win the league at the current odds) and I think they win 70-75% of the times there is a result in this game.  I hate taking short odds like this but it looks value to me.  I would be surprised at the end of the season if we look back and this wasn't a top 3 at home to a bottom 2 club.  See what Tighty thinks I guess - only Coral up at the moment @ 1.5, I'm sure we can get a bit better by Saturday.  As ever, I won't be offended if you leave it!

On the season long bet:  Trott taking another break from cricket and Rikki Clarke's broken finger means that despite Laurie Evans scoring sod all runs in Warwickshire's first game, we are in an excellent position for that bet.  The top order is so frail and with 2 of the main contenders out of contention, he has around a 25% chance.  The key at this stage of the season is getting more runs than Chopra, or at least staying close.

[JaffaCake]

oioi chompy bet of the millennium huilitahhhh

[tikay]

Keep an eye on the Yorkshire v Northants odds for the game starting Sunday.  As nitty as it sounds, I'd take Yorkshire at anything above 1.5 (DNB).  Northants have only won 2 away games in the last 2 years and they were obviously in Division 2.  Yorkshire have only lost 2 home games in the same 2 year period (1 year in each division).   I like the look of Yorkshire this year (definitely best value to win the league at the current odds) and I think they win 70-75% of the times there is a result in this game.  I hate taking short odds like this but it looks value to me.  I would be surprised at the end of the season if we look back and this wasn't a top 3 at home to a bottom 2 club.  See what Tighty thinks I guess - only Coral up at the moment @ 1.5, I'm sure we can get a bit better by Saturday.  As ever, I won't be offended if you leave it!

On the season long bet:  Trott taking another break from cricket and Rikki Clarke's broken finger means that despite Laurie Evans scoring sod all runs in Warwickshire's first game, we are in an excellent position for that bet.  The top order is so frail and with 2 of the main contenders out of contention, he has around a 25% chance.  The key at this stage of the season is getting more runs than Chopra, or at least staying close.

Thanks.

Current prices (DNB) are below.


http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/county-championship-div-1/yorkshire-v-northamptonshire/draw-no-bet

For "Winner" (NOT DNB) easily the best Price is Betfair Exchange, currently 1.95.

I've no idea how to compare "Winner" & "DNB" prices though.

Tighty is AWOL large parts of today, so I'll keep an eye on it.

In Tighty's absence today, when addressing me for Bet Recommends & so on, please use short words.

[tikay]

one for the F1 crew

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/chinese-grand-prix/w-o-mercedes

markets now being offered without Mercedes

china this weekend, hamilton 5/6, rosberg 2/1 16/1 bar

The rest of the F1 field is a very competitive heat this year. For the other Mercedes powered teams, they have an advantage like the works Mercedes in terms of power-train, albeit it is not as integrated into the overall package as the Mercedes team itself.

Force India's excellent results from the past two races have catapulted them into previously unknown territory of second in the constructors a point ahead of third-placed McLaren. Nico Hulkenberg is second in the drivers Championship, Perez podiumed in Bahrain. The market prices up both Red Bull drivers and Alonso ahead of the Mercedes powered team though, which is interesting

We are able to back Hulkenberg at 8-1 for the race (or Perez at 10/1 if you prefer) without the two Mercedes, getting three places (one fifth the odds) each way with Ladbrokes. On their form this season this seems a fair expectation, expecting a finish of fifth or above for a return assuming both Mercedes finish in the top 3.

You could make a similar argument for Massa/Bottas at similar prices

both williams/force india seem to be in a better place for outright speed currently than ferrari, mclaren. red bull is priced on reputation, not so much current form

it strikes me that the force india/williams each way prices are interesting

This was a Tighty Recommendation, so he would not back it for Fred, but I've done so.

Chinese F1 GP, betting WITHOUT Mercedes (Hamilton & Rosberg), HULKENBERG @ 7/1, with Ladbrokes.

I wanted £20 EW, but they Restricted me to £14.35 EW, so I rounded it down to £14 EW.


0000581 Single (each-way) 2 £28.00  2014 Chinese Grand Prix Betting w/o Hamilton and Rosberg
(each-way 1/5 1,2,3)  N Hulkenberg  7/1   


BET PLACED

[tikay]

World Snooker

The draw has put the top two in the market in the same half, Ronnie and Ding

Ronnie we know about, Ding has won five ranking events this year and was a lot of people's idea of the alternative winner should Ronnie not win

the market offers 1/2 e/w top 2.

so, over the last 24 hours I have tried to research "value" in the bottom half, to back each way to win the half....as the favourite in the half is Robertson at 9/1 outright or 9/2 to win

 the bottom half draw reads as follows, assuming they reach the second round (of course not all will)
                                        
Mark Selby (3) v Ali Carter (14)    
John Higgins (11) v Stuart Bingham (6)    
Judd Trump (7) v  Stephen Maguire (10)    
Mark Allen (15) v    Neil Robertson (2)

outright prices in this half

Robertson 9/1
Selby 11/1
Trump 11/1
Higgins 20/1
Allen 25/1
Maguire 33/1
Bingham 40/1
Carter 50/1

http://www.oddschecker.com/snooker/world-championship/winner

My interest is especially in the third quarter because Selby is opposable at the Crucible, usually.

Three seperate people have told me unprompted that Higgins is set to belie his seeding, and is playing better than he has been for 18 months

Carter came back to form in a run to the semi final in China this month, has twice finished runner up in the Worlds, lastly as recently as 2012 and has a teak tough matchplay temperament especially over the longer games. His health problems are under control, and he's a fancy price 

If Robertson performs as he can, world number one, two ranking events this year including the UK, finalist in China earlier in the month then 9/1

So

Recommendations - all for value given the shape of the draw

Neil Robertson £20 e/w 9/1 (1/2 odds 1,2) BetVictor or Coral

John Higgins £10 e/w 18/1  (1/2 odds 1,2) BetVictor 

Ali Carter £10 e/w 50/1 (1/2 odds 1,2) Coral

If any get deep runs we can trade around the two larger priced positions in the second week. the aim is that one wins the third quarter, and we go from there   
      
   

Another one that Tighty cannot do for Fred, so I've done all three. We got 10/1 Roberston, 9/1 was suggested.

All three are with Ladbrokes who, remarkably & surprisingly, never Restricted me at all.

The stakes have been INCREASED from those originally Recommended, I believe this was after debate between Tighty & Lord Grumps as to how we should best spread our stakes.

17/04/2014 0000584 Single (each-way) 2 £40.00  2014 World Snooker Championship Tournament winner
(each-way 1/2 1,2)  A Carter  50/1   
  0000583 Single (each-way) 2 £20.00  2014 World Snooker Championship Tournament winner
(each-way 1/2 1,2)  J Higgins  20/1   
  0000582 Single (each-way) 2 £40.00  2014 World Snooker Championship Tournament winner
(each-way 1/2 1,2)  N Robertson  10/1

3 BETS PLACED

[hector62]

Morning Mr T.

I am just around the corner from you today, well Balham anyway, and used the newly opened Dawlish rail line to come up.

Anyway I think Huddersfield are being priced up from last seasons form in the Super league, and whilst Salford are no great shakes they crucially have the advantage of being at home. With Brett Ferres absent for Huddersfield the bet has to be Salford to win.

Suggest £20 Salford @ 11/8 with Paddy Power

[tikay]

Quick PS to the World Championship Snooker Bets, I'm utterly convinced that Ronnie will win this, & just blow the field away. That's not to say Fred's bets are bad, of course. My belief in Ronnie assumes, of course, that his head is in the right place. Not a given by any means, but there can be no other reason why he is odds against.

Bobby1 gave me Ronnie last year at a silly price, & he hosed up. I've not discussed it with Bobby this year though, as he's still recovering from his Masters duties. 

[tikay]

Morning Mr T.

I am just around the corner from you today, well Balham anyway, and used the newly opened Dawlish rail line to come up.

Anyway I think Huddersfield are being priced up from last seasons form in the Super league, and whilst Salford are no great shakes they crucially have the advantage of being at home. With Brett Ferres absent for Huddersfield the bet has to be Salford to win.

Suggest £20 Salford @ 11/8 with Paddy Power

Morning h.

Really pleased that that line has been re-opened, it is one of my favourite stretches of railway anywhere in the world. The replacement bus service must have been a perfect pain.

I planned to take a trip down there last week, to celebrate the re-opening, & intended to book a first class return, & do it in style. I nearly DIED when I saw the prices though, so I took a tube to Arnos Grove instead.  

[tikay]

Morning Mr T.

I am just around the corner from you today, well Balham anyway, and used the newly opened Dawlish rail line to come up.

Anyway I think Huddersfield are being priced up from last seasons form in the Super league, and whilst Salford are no great shakes they crucially have the advantage of being at home. With Brett Ferres absent for Huddersfield the bet has to be Salford to win.

Suggest £20 Salford @ 11/8 with Paddy Power

DONE, & PP allowed us the full amount. (Could have got £59 in fact).

£20 @ 11/8, Paddy Power, Salford over Huddersfield.

If Salford take a 24 point lead at half time, can I Post running updates again, like I did last week, to cheer us over the line?



Super League Salford City Reds v Huddersfield Giants
18-04-2014 18:00
Match Betting
Salford City Reds @ 11/8


Your Bets





Win
Single: Salford City Reds @ 11/8
1 line at £20.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £20.00
 Potential returns: £47.50
No: O/23146337/0000464
 


BET PLACED

[TightEnd]

Keep an eye on the Yorkshire v Northants odds for the game starting Sunday.  As nitty as it sounds, I'd take Yorkshire at anything above 1.5 (DNB).  Northants have only won 2 away games in the last 2 years and they were obviously in Division 2.  Yorkshire have only lost 2 home games in the same 2 year period (1 year in each division).   I like the look of Yorkshire this year (definitely best value to win the league at the current odds) and I think they win 70-75% of the times there is a result in this game.  I hate taking short odds like this but it looks value to me.  I would be surprised at the end of the season if we look back and this wasn't a top 3 at home to a bottom 2 club.  See what Tighty thinks I guess - only Coral up at the moment @ 1.5, I'm sure we can get a bit better by Saturday.  As ever, I won't be offended if you leave it!

On the season long bet:  Trott taking another break from cricket and Rikki Clarke's broken finger means that despite Laurie Evans scoring sod all runs in Warwickshire's first game, we are in an excellent position for that bet.  The top order is so frail and with 2 of the main contenders out of contention, he has around a 25% chance.  The key at this stage of the season is getting more runs than Chopra, or at least staying close.

I follow Northants closely

One of the smallest squads in the country and very injury hit

they only had ten fit players for the first championship game and david Wlley, with an injured back, played as a batsman only to get a team out

the litany of injuries has been severe, including both the overseas player and his replacement who was injured before he arrived. wakely the vice captain tore an achilles pre-season, keogh, duckett, sales etc etc...all missing

that said, they escaped with a draw against durham, nine down batting out the last 8 overs to draw. that said again, the pitch was like a pudding, so that helped them survive

i like yorkshire for the title, and the batting line up is tremendous.

Anything around evens Yorkshire here (haven't looked at the weather for easter in leeds) would be very attractive 

[Doobs]

Do we still have a free bet to use very soon?

There is a young temperamental golfer flying highish (3 off the lead) in the HBC Heritage.  Currently 11/1 with Hills, should be able to lay off at the same on Betfair if you don't like your young players grouchy.  I have let mine run.  

Don't think it is a bet unless we have a freebie, just a fan thing really.

And pls back Newcastle, ok, Swansea are just as bad