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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13329842 times)
arbboy
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« Reply #81405 on: June 24, 2014, 11:45:55 PM »

i would empty the clip but the shops are closed and they won't lay me more than £1.11 ew online.  Fancy laying me Tal?  Monkey ew at 8/1?  Man of your means and education it should be small fry! Grin
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Waz1892
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« Reply #81406 on: June 25, 2014, 12:02:17 AM »

No-one like Rooney at 14s?  Will play through middle more?  New manager, new drive, coming off a bad world cup with the potential England captaincy up for grabs.
And no european football, so plenty of rest days etc?
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« Reply #81407 on: June 25, 2014, 12:11:45 AM »

No-one like Rooney at 14s?  Will play through middle more?  New manager, new drive, coming off a bad world cup with the potential England captaincy up for grabs.
And no european football, so plenty of rest days etc?

Will he though?
It's the dutch manager and theres talk of van persie being the new captain/probably the managers fave.
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Waz1892
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« Reply #81408 on: June 25, 2014, 12:22:33 AM »

No-one like Rooney at 14s?  Will play through middle more?  New manager, new drive, coming off a bad world cup with the potential England captaincy up for grabs.
And no european football, so plenty of rest days etc?

Will he though?
It's the dutch manager and theres talk of van persie being the new captain/probably the managers fave.

with the clamber for him to play for England through the middle as the number 9/10, and his clear preference for it, I'd be surprised if he wasn't in the middle more.  Captain wise, RVP likely to be for Manu, I was referring to his potential as the new England captain could be another incentive for him to show worth.
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rfgqqabc
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« Reply #81409 on: June 25, 2014, 12:47:27 AM »

i would empty the clip but the shops are closed and they won't lay me more than £1.11 ew online.  Fancy laying me Tal?  Monkey ew at 8/1?  Man of your means and education it should be small fry! Grin

Will lay you £75ew, half of what I got on. Mind punting it on your next decent bet? Saves xfer Tongue
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[21:05:17] Andrew W: you wasted a non spelling mistakepost?
[21:11:08] Patrick Leonard: oll
arbboy
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« Reply #81410 on: June 25, 2014, 12:50:34 AM »

i would empty the clip but the shops are closed and they won't lay me more than £1.11 ew online.  Fancy laying me Tal?  Monkey ew at 8/1?  Man of your means and education it should be small fry! Grin

Will lay you £75ew, half of what I got on. Mind punting it on your next decent bet? Saves xfer Tongue

sent pm
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arbboy
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« Reply #81411 on: June 25, 2014, 01:44:37 AM »

didnt take the night shift cleaner long to chop the 8's at hills.
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claypole
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« Reply #81412 on: June 25, 2014, 02:09:22 AM »

I am not sure Fred can get on at Sid James, however thought I'd still post so others could see.

As of this evening, two firms have cut places terms to 1-3 for Top Goalscorer.  I am sure the rest will follow suit by end of the group teams. RVP currently sits on three goals, after sitting out the last game and notching 1/55mins. I think everyone who has played this market knows one of the main key factors is game time expectancy.  As all of us on the Argie's are aware, the bottom half is opening up and barring a miracle USA result Brazil, Germany, France, Chile, Columbia all sit in the top half and have the ability to damage each other.

Holland play Mexico, then Costa / Greece prior to a semi likely to be Argentina or Belgium, we then have the third place play off - albeit our man may be rested but unlikely In this case.  The Mexico game is obviously key.

At 12/1 I think this is tremendous value - even if we're generous it's a 10 runner race and RvP has notched three and is sat in second.  It he Dutch are evens to make semis, so 50% probability to play four more games. His goal expectancy is then about 1.3, taking him to 4.3 goals.  The other key factor is Benz (3) Muller (3) and Neymar(4) cannot all have four games (include Rodriquez if you like) so the field will thin. In our half it's us, Robben and Messi at this stage.  Typing quick I am sure there is o one who can do all the maths better however it feels abet with the 3/1 a place.

Tough for me as I have positions on Benz, Muller and Neymar yesterday at 7/1 however still added a little tonight.

Recommend £25ew RvP at 12/1 with Stan James 4 places If it's there when I am up and you want to get on I am happy to sort.  
« Last Edit: June 25, 2014, 02:12:32 AM by claypole » Logged
arbboy
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« Reply #81413 on: June 25, 2014, 02:19:05 AM »

I am not sure Fred can get on at Sid James, however thought I'd still post so others could see.

As of this evening, two firms have cut places terms to 1-3 for Top Goalscorer.  I am sure the rest will follow suit by end of the group teams. RVP currently sits on three goals, after sitting out the last game and notching 1/55mins. I think everyone who has played this market knows one of the main key factors is game time expectancy.  As all of us on the Argie's are aware, the bottom half is opening up and barring a miracle USA result Brazil, Germany, France, Chile, Columbia all sit in the top half and have the ability to damage each other.

Holland play Mexico, then Costa / Greece prior to a semi likely to be Argentina or Belgium, we then have the third place play off - albeit our man may be rested but unlikely In this case.  The Mexico game is obviously key.

At 12/1 I think this is tremendous value - even if we're generous it's a 10 runner race and RvP has notched three and is sat in second.  It he Dutch are evens to make semis, so 50% probability to play four more games. His goal expectancy is then about 1.3, taking him to 4.3 goals.  The other key factor is Benz (3) Muller (3) and Neymar(4) cannot all have four games (include Rodriquez if you like) so the field will thin. In our half it's us, Robben and Messi at this stage.  Typing quick I am sure there is o one who can do all the maths better however it feels abet with the 3/1 a place.

Tough for me as I have positions on Benz, Muller and Neymar yesterday at 7/1 however still added a little tonight.

Recommend £25ew RvP at 12/1 with Stan James 4 places If it's there when I am up and you want to get on I am happy to sort.  

Like a lot.  Win and place both unders on bf.  Makes a lot of sense.  GL getting on at stan!
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claypole
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« Reply #81414 on: June 25, 2014, 02:23:29 AM »

Yes obviously next games are key as. Muller, Benz, Messi have extra game - pretty sure Benz starts tomorrow based on French source that's Chip rich says have got every game right.  They've just laid me £40ew, which sort of works with stakes on others for me....it's my oldest account nearly and they do lay me a bet. After years of degenning obv
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arbboy
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« Reply #81415 on: June 25, 2014, 02:26:10 AM »

This must be a really 'messy' book for most firms esp the place book ante post.  They must be looking at a sea of red figures on the current market leaders and there could be a lot of spots in the next 2 weeks where they might be happy 'to lay' a springer in the market at 'way over the odds' so to speak to 'get him in the book' to try and limit the damage.
« Last Edit: June 25, 2014, 02:28:02 AM by arbboy » Logged
claypole
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« Reply #81416 on: June 25, 2014, 02:32:18 AM »

Yes I completely agree mate....I am sure that's the case with Laddies yesterday holding Neymar at 7/1 playing that shower Cameroon - had same discussion last night.  I spent a lot of time pre tourne and was with Benz, Muller, Aguero and Lukaku - so if my simple analysis came up with those four, throw Messi, Ney, in into short list some firms won't have many running for them.  Think Higuain, Aguero maybe only spots they're in decent shape.

Anyway, today's been a car crash so need some returns on this market. Gn
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JaffaCake
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« Reply #81417 on: June 25, 2014, 03:37:02 AM »

Yo argueboy thought I'd read every post here, but I guess half the time I've been drunk...what's your NBA offering? I've had a few bets myself coincidentally
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JaffaCake
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« Reply #81418 on: June 25, 2014, 04:42:54 AM »

One for jaffa or other NBA diehards to pass his/their views on if you wouldn't mind.

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/derek-fisher/to-win-a-championship

This isn't a bet for fred as it could potentially take 10/15/20 years to win however it's a truely incredible price.  Fisher is going to be an nba head coach for years and years you would have to assume having retired as a player this season and having won a collection of championships over his career as a solid role player.  His team (NY Knicks) next year are only a 40/1 shot with ladbrokes to win the NBA.  He has a 5 year contract to coach the Knicks under the guidance of the greatest coach in history Phil Jackson (so its highly likely fisher sees out this contract) who is now the general manager of the Knicks and won 6 titles with Jordan and the Bulls and 3 more with Kobe and Shaq at LA.  It's highly unlikely the knicks will not improve dramatically as a team in the next 5 years (they have huge salary cap issues next season which will finish for the following season and they will be able to rebuild their roster to championship level) and therefore won't be anywhere close to a 50/1 shot to win the NBA esp as they are in the very weak Eastern conference.  Even if we assume the knicks are a 50/1 (2%) shot in each of the next 5 years for the nba that obv equates to 10% or 9/1.  This is pretty much the worse case scenario.  So we are getting the right price for the bet easily within the next 5 years and then have a total freeroll on fisher potentially coaching for the next 20 years in the nba.

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/kevin-durant/50-points-in-a-game

This looks max bet for me jaffa.  KD had a 50 point game in each of the last 3 seasons and is still improving towards his natural physical peak.  Hard to see how he doesn't have a 50 point game again next season as he is the purest scorer in the NBA since Jordan and has led the league in scoring virtually every season since he has become a true superstar.

Last season he had individual game totals of 48, 48, 54, 46, 51

After much searching found this post Marc. Can't see the prices tho on iPad,maybe the markets were taken down?

The fisher bet must be maths based as as u say there's no logic to suggesting the Knicks win a championship any time soon. They may actually be helped if Carmelo leaves this offseason as they are not able I rebuild at the moment, but they still have monster outlays on Bargnani and Stat and no one will be taking those contracts off them. That's means potentially a couple of years of losing before they have a chance of winning. Will fisher ride that out, five yr dealer not?

There's plenty of good coaches you'd think would always get jobs who are signing on, Avery Johnson springs to mind as one ad there's many the same. Coupled with what a good speaker he is as former head of the players association or whatever the proper title is, I think he might end up in a TV studio. Guess if mathematically it's a bet it is a bet but it's not one I fancy in terms of feels.

I think Durant  will get 50. If it's around evens I like it. What price did they have?
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doubleup
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« Reply #81419 on: June 25, 2014, 08:20:59 AM »

Racebets go 10-1 Al Naamah to win any English/French Classic next season.

Obv she has a way to go after only winning a Chantilly maiden yesterday but she was very impressive. For a sister to an Oaks winner to do that first time up at this stage is some effort. She might live up to her ridiculous price tag (5,000,000gns).

At 10-1 she's worth a crack anyway, given she's already ante-post favourite for both the 1000 Guineas and Oaks (20-1 for both). Especially as we have the Pouliches and Diane thrown in.

Rec £30 @ 10-1.

hmmmmm unless Racebets go for a UKGC licence it will be illegal for them to take bets from UK customers next year.  While theoretically it shouldn't make any difference to this bet, there is obviously a potential for problems. 

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