Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

by the way, i will do a report on the open at the end of each round, where we are on the bets etc, at the close of each day

[tikay]

Sigh - I'll stop putting the kiss of death on it.

Stop it, you two.

Try this, never fails.

I fancy India to lose 3 quick wickets now.

amateurish attempt tony

I fancy England to skittle India out for under 300

300?

I'd double our bet on India if they could eke out 300.

[tikay]

by the way, i will do a report on the open at the end of each round, where we are on the bets etc, at the close of each day

Thanks Rich, it's a job to know who to follow at the moment.

Great comeback by Tiger, Stenson was all over the shop, but Els & his 3 putts from 8 inches was hard to believe. 

[Ironside]

Sigh - I'll stop putting the kiss of death on it.

Stop it, you two.

Try this, never fails.

I fancy India to lose 3 quick wickets now.

amateurish attempt tony

I fancy England to skittle India out for under 300

300?

I'd double our bet on India if they could eke out 300.

well I don't like doing things by half measures

[Tal]

Can you give me 43 lottery numbers for Saturday, please? This is impressive stuff.

[icles test]

FFS.......

This appeared on You Tube, followed by a sarcy comment from Stan James.

A chap wrote into the Studio, too, to say "does he REALLY not know that the Nike logo is a swoosh?"......

It appears on You Tube as....

"Betting Guy Hasn't a Clue About Nike"

Must be said, the reactions of my colleagues was awesome. Think that's called "dying".

Hero

[toddswain]

I personally think Newcastle are much better value at 6/4 (we're 4/6 on bf) than hammers at 5/2. First time in years where we've actually boosted our squad in summer, at least 6 new players and only 1 going the other way upto now. Obviously just my opinion

Good spot Todd.  I was actually looking at this myself this morning.  4/6 on bf is misleading as the market is not at all 'tight' and has little liquidity.  However several firms have shortened Newcastle this morning on oddschecker and some cash has been matched on bf at prices much lower than 6/4.  Couldn't put fred off adding to the top 10 portfolio with this solid looking banker.

The other ante post bet i was looking at on the EPL this morning was Bald's 8/13 on Arsenal for top 4 which looks very big following the transfer business.  People are asking for under 8/15 on bf.  Would recommend a bet of £40/£65 is struck with the bald one.

No love for this ? Just got 13/8, seems really good value to me

[tikay]

I personally think Newcastle are much better value at 6/4 (we're 4/6 on bf) than hammers at 5/2. First time in years where we've actually boosted our squad in summer, at least 6 new players and only 1 going the other way upto now. Obviously just my opinion

Good spot Todd.  I was actually looking at this myself this morning.  4/6 on bf is misleading as the market is not at all 'tight' and has little liquidity.  However several firms have shortened Newcastle this morning on oddschecker and some cash has been matched on bf at prices much lower than 6/4.  Couldn't put fred off adding to the top 10 portfolio with this solid looking banker.

The other ante post bet i was looking at on the EPL this morning was Bald's 8/13 on Arsenal for top 4 which looks very big following the transfer business.  People are asking for under 8/15 on bf.  Would recommend a bet of £40/£65 is struck with the bald one.

No love for this ? Just got 13/8, seems really good value to me

I'll remind the football lads, Todd, everyone has been majoring on the golf the last few days.

I'm not a football chap, but I'd have thought Newcastle would have been heading south this season, every time I read Newcastle fan threads they are all telling each other what a complete "clown" Mr Pardew is. To be fair, I don't buy that, not at all, but I'll be pleasantly if they have a Top 10 season.

[Marky147]

When I saw positive Newcastle bets being suggested, I presumed that Pardew had been sacked while I was in Vegas...

[Peter-27]

German GP this weekend, here are my recommendations:

Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 2/1 with Sky Bet/Totesport/Betfred - The usual price for Rosberg to win a race this season is 15/8, the bookies are aware that Lewis Hamilton is the (slightly) quicker driver. Pushing it up to 2/1 for this race is silly though. Hamilton did win the last race and they're probably thinking he has momentum behind him now. However, this is Nico's home race, the price should have gone down if anything, not up. Definitely worth betting on.

Top 6 Finish: Sergio Perez @ 3/1 - £1 with Stan Shames and Bwin - I have to be careful what I say about this for contractual reasons (I work for Williams if you did not know), but I'll direct you here (http://www1.skysports.com/f1/report/22058/9377842/fric--decoding-f18217-s-latest-controversy) to this question: "What chance of a unanimous vote?". Bookies have not factored this in, worth a bet. The bet is NOT a sure thing, but the situation will help some teams more than others ..

That's all for now, might put some more up as the weekend progresses.

[Doobs]

German GP this weekend, here are my recommendations:

Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 2/1 with Sky Bet/Totesport/Betfred - The usual price for Rosberg to win a race this season is 15/8, the bookies are aware that Lewis Hamilton is the (slightly) quicker driver. Pushing it up to 2/1 for this race is silly though. Hamilton did win the last race and they're probably thinking he has momentum behind him now. However, this is Nico's home race, the price should have gone down if anything, not up. Definitely worth betting on.

Top 6 Finish: Sergio Perez @ 3/1 - £1 with Stan Shames and Bwin - I have to be careful what I say about this for contractual reasons (I work for Williams if you did not know), but I'll direct you here (http://www1.skysports.com/f1/report/22058/9377842/fric--decoding-f18217-s-latest-controversy) to this question: "What chance of a unanimous vote?". Bookies have not factored this in, worth a bet. The bet is NOT a sure thing, but the situation will help some teams more than others ..

That's all for now, might put some more up as the weekend progresses.

Wouldn't the correct thing to do to oppose both Mercedes?   

They are priced as if a Mercedes victory is a near certainty, and we know something that can seriously affect them that we think isn't in the prices.  So we either lay the Mercedes drivers or back those most likely to benefit?   

[Doobs]

German GP this weekend, here are my recommendations:

Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 2/1 with Sky Bet/Totesport/Betfred - The usual price for Rosberg to win a race this season is 15/8, the bookies are aware that Lewis Hamilton is the (slightly) quicker driver. Pushing it up to 2/1 for this race is silly though. Hamilton did win the last race and they're probably thinking he has momentum behind him now. However, this is Nico's home race, the price should have gone down if anything, not up. Definitely worth betting on.

Top 6 Finish: Sergio Perez @ 3/1 - £1 with Stan Shames and Bwin - I have to be careful what I say about this for contractual reasons (I work for Williams if you did not know), but I'll direct you here (http://www1.skysports.com/f1/report/22058/9377842/fric--decoding-f18217-s-latest-controversy) to this question: "What chance of a unanimous vote?". Bookies have not factored this in, worth a bet. The bet is NOT a sure thing, but the situation will help some teams more than others ..

That's all for now, might put some more up as the weekend progresses.

Wouldn't the correct thing to do to oppose both Mercedes?   

They are priced as if a Mercedes victory is a near certainty, and we know something that can seriously affect them that we think isn't in the prices.  So we either lay the Mercedes drivers or back those most likely to benefit?   

Bottas 25/1, Massa 33/1, Hulkenberg 125/1, the last one e/w sounds good?  It is what I have done, because I am a bit wary of Perez.

Imagine the Red Bull has a top notch system and Williams not so good.  All the above still have Mercedes power though.

[Peter-27]

German GP this weekend, here are my recommendations:

Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 2/1 with Sky Bet/Totesport/Betfred - The usual price for Rosberg to win a race this season is 15/8, the bookies are aware that Lewis Hamilton is the (slightly) quicker driver. Pushing it up to 2/1 for this race is silly though. Hamilton did win the last race and they're probably thinking he has momentum behind him now. However, this is Nico's home race, the price should have gone down if anything, not up. Definitely worth betting on.

Top 6 Finish: Sergio Perez @ 3/1 - £1 with Stan Shames and Bwin - I have to be careful what I say about this for contractual reasons (I work for Williams if you did not know), but I'll direct you here (http://www1.skysports.com/f1/report/22058/9377842/fric--decoding-f18217-s-latest-controversy) to this question: "What chance of a unanimous vote?". Bookies have not factored this in, worth a bet. The bet is NOT a sure thing, but the situation will help some teams more than others ..

That's all for now, might put some more up as the weekend progresses.

Wouldn't the correct thing to do to oppose both Mercedes?  

They are priced as if a Mercedes victory is a near certainty, and we know something that can seriously affect them that we think isn't in the prices.  So we either lay the Mercedes drivers or back those most likely to benefit?  

Mercedes' margin over the field is so big that even if the loss of FRIC did massively effect them, they would still quite easily win the race.

German GP this weekend, here are my recommendations:

Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 2/1 with Sky Bet/Totesport/Betfred - The usual price for Rosberg to win a race this season is 15/8, the bookies are aware that Lewis Hamilton is the (slightly) quicker driver. Pushing it up to 2/1 for this race is silly though. Hamilton did win the last race and they're probably thinking he has momentum behind him now. However, this is Nico's home race, the price should have gone down if anything, not up. Definitely worth betting on.

Top 6 Finish: Sergio Perez @ 3/1 - £1 with Stan Shames and Bwin - I have to be careful what I say about this for contractual reasons (I work for Williams if you did not know), but I'll direct you here (http://www1.skysports.com/f1/report/22058/9377842/fric--decoding-f18217-s-latest-controversy) to this question: "What chance of a unanimous vote?". Bookies have not factored this in, worth a bet. The bet is NOT a sure thing, but the situation will help some teams more than others ..

That's all for now, might put some more up as the weekend progresses.

Wouldn't the correct thing to do to oppose both Mercedes?  

They are priced as if a Mercedes victory is a near certainty, and we know something that can seriously affect them that we think isn't in the prices.  So we either lay the Mercedes drivers or back those most likely to benefit?  

Bottas 25/1, Massa 33/1, Hulkenberg 125/1, the last one e/w sounds good?  It is what I have done, because I am a bit wary of Perez.

Imagine the Red Bull has a top notch system and Williams not so good.  All the above still have Mercedes power though.

You could tip those three for a podium (I do have money on Massa for a podium), but they won't win the race unless Mercedes are unreliable. Again, Mercedes margin is far too huge.

[TightEnd]

Isn't Hulkenberg or Perez to podium a better bet?

the rest of the field is slowed to some extent or another without FRIC, Force India is not too far off the pace of the field ex Mercedes anyway and can always go to one stop strategies if no FRIC doesn't make too much difference?

and we can get 16-1/25-1 whichever you pick?

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/german-grand-prix/podium-finish

a touch more bang for your buck than a £1 at 3-1 top six...?

--

even though the Mercs should still win, why is it 4/7 2/1 when they will be disproportionately affected by the mid season rule change?

surely neither are any value whatsoever, priced off a set of  rules that no longer exist, they've changed 

[luther101]

The money's starting to come in for Watford - 12/1 from 18/1 (outright) and 4/1 from 13/2 for promotion with B365   ....    still some 14 & 16/1 about - as low as 10/1 with Corals.

I think they've finally cottoned on to the recent signings,