Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Think it's worth funding it we're having a chunky bet? Quarter the odds 1, 2, 3. Feels like a good spot for a maximum each-way bet?

Don't think anyone should put money in Malta licensed books until they are fully licensed by UKGC.  If they don't get licensed,  visa/mastercard will block them so you might not be able to withdraw.

Very good point.

Very few punters seem bothered by the upcoming Licensing thing, but it's serious, and the landscape could well change considerably.

That was not my reason for preferring not to deposit further with Betway, but it us equally valid.

[tikay]

BOOM!

India win the Test.

Told you not to worry about greening out.

[TightEnd]

BV

Isthmian One South League Winner 2014/15 Guernsey (Outright - Outright) Odds: 4/1 Stake: 60.00

£30 E/W 1/4 1,2,3


To match Mark's required stake, he didn't seem comfortable witnh £50 e/w

[arbboy]

imagine the TFT jolly for their last home game to seal the title as well.  Put 200 on the gate!

[Mark_Porter]

It should be a good sweat. Happy to make it £50 EW Rich if you can.

I didn’t really know the story until last season. I left the island to come back to the mainland before the team was set up. My friend got in contact after they won 11-0 at home against Crawley Down Gatwick! There was a lot of opposition to them joining the league and lots of unrest from the opposition about travelling. Understandable really.

Last season Guernsey had to play 17 games in 30 days! They had issues with a waterlogged pitch so had to call games off over the Winter meaning they didn’t play a game for 5 weeks. You do get some amazing stories in leagues like this.

Only reason I didn’t want to bet big is just I have little idea of the relative strength of the other teams in that league. All I know is Guernsey will be stronger and all going well with fixtures, injuries etc then should be there come the end of the season. 

[TightEnd]

tried to up it Mark, now 3/1 at BV

we're on for enough to follow it

off to find Guernseyfc..com or whatever....

[Peter-27]

I will post this now before I forget.

Guernsey Football Club were only established in 2011. They were set up to give the Guernsey team a chance to test themselves against opposition on the mainland rather than just playing Jersey once a year.

They achieved back to back promotions after being first established and currently play in the Ryman Isthmian League Division 1 South. This season will be their second year in this league after finishing 4th last time round and getting knockout out in the playoffs.

They have a really quite bizarre set up. They are sponsored by Sporting Bet. The sponsor pays approximately £6K per game to ferry the players and staff backwards and forwards. One of the stipulations of Guernsey joining the league is that they have to pay all travel costs for away teams to get to the island, stay in a hotel etc. The deal with Sporting Bet was reported to be worth about £200K. As finances go, they are well backed by some local wealthy Guerns.

They play their football at Footes Lane. It’s got a 5000 capacity.




As a youngster I can remember flying around that bend running the 400 metres on Sports day in front of a packed house. I think I managed a third.

Their average attendance last year was about 1000. That’s three times more than anyone else in the league. They are pulling from a fan base of 60,000 people in Guernsey. With no other club options, if anybody from the channel islands wants to play in the UK leagues then this is their only option.

Last season they were a short priced favourite to win the league at the first time of asking. I think, from memory, that they were 2/1 but can’t find the price. They were really hampered by injuries and they fell away badly and couldn’t quite squeeze through in the playoffs. At one point Matt Le Tissier turned out for them - a bit of a PR stunt (his brother is the club secretary) but it was actually down to the fact they could barely field a side - the injuries hit them so hard.

I have a season ticket holder friend who is also quite closely involved behind the scenes. He has been very very bullish about their chances of winning the league this year. We have been having a lengthy debate but essentially the squad is looking very strong indeed with some excellent new young players and the usual regulars. This guy is quite a character - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryan-Zico_Black

The initial pricing that has gone up is best price 9/2 second favourite to win the league with Betway. They actually opened 11/2 but that went quickly. 4/1 with BV. I want to wait and see if they are priced up anywhere else. I think they are still a bet at 9/2 but hope we can nick some 5/1 somewhere. Should be a good season long sweat if you fancy it. Recc £60 outright but hold off placing for now.

I know that guy!! He used to play for Morecambe where I grew up and he was one of the teachers at a half-term soccer school type thing  

[arbboy]

Darts tonight Anderson 2/5 at hills to beat Caven.  Ando is back to his best now and this format really suits the best players in the world.  Recommend £50 at 2/5.  Can't see him going off anywhere near 2/5.  Quite tempted with a mug double on Wright and Ando as well 8/13 2/5 both hills.

[redarmi]

Great write up Mark_porter.  TfT at its best.

[TightEnd]

at the risk of appearing stupid

is a (non taylor, non MVG, non Lewis) top 32 player really 2/5 against any other top 32 player?

seems very short to me, given that you could argue that Caven's recent form is as strong as Anderson's

(half an hour on google is a dangerous thing)

[Nakor]

at the risk of appearing stupid

is a (non taylor, non MVG, non Lewis) top 32 player really 2/5 against any other top 32 player?

seems very short to me, given that you could argue that Caven's recent form is as strong as Anderson's

(half an hour on google is a dangerous thing)

Is that Caven's stage form as good as Anderson?
Think a huge premium associated to the stage events vs the floor events.

Anderson should be included in the Lewis, Taylor, MVG group on his day.  Yes his day is a little less regular but his scoring averages are as high as the other 3 - he just has more bad days on doubles.  I would suggest Anderson is the only other top 32 player that breaks your logic.

[arbboy]

World rankings are dangerous things to look at for darts.  Barney is currently 16 and Caven is 22.  Caven has been in the PDC for 7 years and has never made a TV 1/4 final in 7 years outside of 2 1/4 final appearances in the UK open (FA cup of darts where there is a free draw and no seeding).  Based on that record alone and the fact the TV events have the big prize money for the prize list it's amazing he is ranked in the 20s imo.

He is the classic floor player who hoovers up order of merit prizemoney week in week out in the low grade weekend events to give this 'false' ranking on the money list.  Put him on stage and he freezes as his tv record proves.  The key factor for the bet for me is his draw.  I can't imagine he has stuck in too many hours practicing for this once he has seen his draw in the killer bottom quarter where he would have to potentially play 5 of the top 7 in the betting to win the event.  

Contrastingly, Ando is back to close to his best after the death of his father a year or so ago and his ranking of 10 is false like Barney's.  

Also the matchplay format of this event make shocks much less likely even inthe first round where its first to 10 compared to say first to 7 in the premier league.  This is the reason why Taylor hasn't lost a match at blackpool for 6 or 7 years.

It's also under slightly on bf as well fwiw.

[redarmi]

Not an expert by any stretch of the imagination but would imagine that in this tournament the better players advantage is magnified so whilst that might be the case in a normal tournament the luck element is reduced slightly with the double to start in the Matchplay

[Bazzaboy]

I couldn't back Anderson at 2/5 here.. He still manages to find ways of losing when it's easier to win. Caven is in decent nick and whilst he has a poor record on TV he has improved in the past 12 months or so. Not immediately evident from his results but his averages have improved, with only one sub 90ave in the past 18months. Anderson also has a terrible record here.

[arbboy]

I must admit i didn't realise Ando had never made the last 8 of this event in his career.  Quite amazing really.  Can't really see it being worth anything looking forward just small sample variance unless he struggles with the heat of the old fashioned venue (always held in mid July) like Barney seems to a bit.  The format should suit a heavy scorer like him more than the average player.