Tips for Tikay

[DungBeetle]

I liked Hull's deadline business.   Bruce has really beefed up his squad.

Was just about to post a suggestion/opinion for them to go down!

The signings are good on paper, but im not sure Ben Arfa, Hernandez (renowned party boy should get on well with Hatem) and to a lesser extent Ramirez will fit into the tight team spirit they seem to have there.

I didn't consider that angle - but before yesterday I was thinking they were really light up front and in creativity, so at least they have remedied that albeit with an element of risk!

[horseplayer]

[tikay]

August 2014 Figures

Closed bets: 119
Amount wagered: £3,134.29
Profit/loss: -£763.95
ROI: -24.37%

Number of "sports" bet on: 10
Most popular:  Horses (36), Golf (25), Football (13), Cricket(13).

Most and least profitable sports (based on monthly profit/loss) are:

Sport               Profit  Amt Bet       ROI   No.
Golf   306.17   876.00   34.95   25
Football 14.21   252.12   5.64   13

(Only two sports made a profit).

...

Tennis -116.25   156.25   -74.40   9
Cricket   -216.00   365.00   -59.18   13
Horses   -591.94   932.33   -63.49   36


Number of tipsters: 30 including 0 new tipsters.


Overall statistics (since February 2012)

Total closed bets: 3,833
Amount wagered: £117,880.72
Profit/loss: £3,259.40
ROI: 2.76%

Number of "sports" bet on: 32
Most popular: Horses(972), Football (939), Golf (335), Cricket(250).

Most and least profitable sports (based on aggregate profit/loss) are:
        
Sport               Profit  Amt Bet       ROI   No.
Football   2,129.44   29,537.46   7.21   939
Horses   1,072.77   31,209.61   3.44   972
Misc.   860.47   3,603.07   23.88   95
...
Snooker   -383.00   1,118.00   -34.26   31
Formula1   -392.16   1,420.17   -27.61   71
Golf   -481.39   9,223.64   -5.22   335


The complete list is here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=4


Total number of tipsters: 156


Number of different bookies/exchanges/agents: 43

Most and least profitable bookies (based on aggregate profit/loss) are:
        
Bookie          Profit     Amt Bet   ROI     No.
BoyleSports      2,510.40   4,515.45   55.60   115
Bet365      1,093.38   5,031.60   21.73   223
WilliamHill      915.45   20,615.94   4.44   674

...

PaddyPower      -484.48   7,627.97   -6.35   358
Coral      -558.24   7,396.20   -7.55   257
BetFred      -994.51   8,980.17   -11.07   296


The complete list is here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=7


The archive of all bets prior to 2014 can be found here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdHVrekx6T0REUXVNOWw5YTVWa0pWZGc#gid=7

Thanks Vince.

Bumped to remind me to comment later today.

Gotta get some kip now, am working tonight.

 

[tikay]

For those interested in NFL, tonight on Ch 861 (8pm to 10pm) a panel of "experts" will be discussing the upcoming NFL Season from a betting perspective. 

Markets to be discussed are, obviously, those on Scuy (who?), but you are all bright enough to know where best to get on if need be.

Markets they PLAN to discuss include.....



Hour One
NFC North betting
NFC South betting
NFC East betting
NFC West betting
NFC conference Outright
 
Player specials:
Offensive rookie of the year
Defensive rookie of the year
Most passing yards
Most receiving yards
Most rushing yards
Regular season MVP
 
Hour Two:
AFC North betting
AFC South betting
AFC East betting
AFC West betting
AFC conference Outright
 
Super Bowl XLVIII Outright
 
Week 1 fixtures
 

For now, I have two max bets for you.

1) They will run out of time, as Lord Grumpy is amongst the panel. And we know how he waffles on, endlessly.  NAP

2) Lord Grumpy is due in the Studio @ 8pm. He'll be late. NB


8pm to 10pm, Channel 861.

[TightEnd]

our positions are as follows

AFC East   Dolphins 4th   4/1.   50
NFL Comeback player of the year   Rodgers   12/1   9.16
AFC West Winner   Chargers   13/2   20
Superbowl   Packers   14/1   20
NFC Conference   Eagles   25/1   20
NFC Conference   Eagles   14/1   20
AFC Conference   Steelers   14/1   20
NFC West winner   Rams   12/1   15
NFL Offensive Rookie Of The Year    brandin cooks   10/1   15
NFL Offensive Rookie Of The Year    kelvin benjamin   20/1   10
NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year   aaron donald   20/1   15
Most Regular Season Rushing Yards    jamaal charles   12/1   30
Most Regular Season Passing Yds   Matt Ryan   16/1   20
Most Regular Season Rushing Yards    Lesean McCoy   4/1   20
NFL MVP   Lesean McCoy   66/1   2.49
49ers v Cowboys   over 48.5 points   10/11   100
Superbowl   Packers   8/1   20
NFC Conference winner   Packers   14/1   20
Team to concede least points   Bengals   16/1   20

hopefully not too many contradictions to those from tikay!

[tikay]

our positions are as follows

AFC East   Dolphins 4th   4/1.   50
NFL Comeback player of the year   Rodgers   12/1   9.16
AFC West Winner   Chargers   13/2   20
Superbowl   Packers   14/1   20
NFC Conference   Eagles   25/1   20
NFC Conference   Eagles   14/1   20
AFC Conference   Steelers   14/1   20
NFC West winner   Rams   12/1   15
NFL Offensive Rookie Of The Year    brandin cooks   10/1   15
NFL Offensive Rookie Of The Year    kelvin benjamin   20/1   10
NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year   aaron donald   20/1   15
Most Regular Season Rushing Yards    jamaal charles   12/1   30
Most Regular Season Passing Yds   Matt Ryan   16/1   20
Most Regular Season Rushing Yards    Lesean McCoy   4/1   20
NFL MVP   Lesean McCoy   66/1   2.49
49ers v Cowboys   over 48.5 points   10/11   100
Superbowl   Packers   8/1   20
NFC Conference winner   Packers   14/1   20
Team to concede least points   Bengals   16/1   20

hopefully not too many contradictions to those from tikay!

Think I'll stick to the poker stuff Rich, where at least I know what I am talking about. (Shush).

I'll avoid "swoosh" bkokes, too, in case poor old Stan James are watching again. That clip got 6,700 replies, but then it got taken down for some sort of Copyright infringement thing. Boo!

[horseplayer]

Anybody got a view here?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/scottish/premiership/top-goalscorer

Really keen to get with Scepovic he is pretty good, young and probably realises this is a good stepping stone for him

Must say was hoping for bigger than 6's would have backed him at 8's

[Ironside]

Anybody got a view here?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/scottish/premiership/top-goalscorer

Really keen to get with Scepovic he is pretty good, young and probably realises this is a good stepping stone for him

Must say was hoping for bigger than 6's would have backed him at 8's

I actually like "apart from a lead year's" 33s ew for goodwillie he will be Aberdeen's main striker this year despite rooney having been the starting striker so far
Aberdeen will finish in top 4 and he should have a good run at it while the celtic strikers will be rotated will they get knocked out of Europe for 3rd time this year (hopefully get through group stage though)
other sites have goodwillie at around 16s I would say I would be happy with 10s-12s with the ew part the only reason he is higher at moment is rooney has started before him while he settles in

[Chompy]

If anyone's desperate for a bet on the Poshies TV match tonight (nothing worth watching on other channels), Joe Newell or Jermaine to score any time, both around 6-1 should be good for a bit of interest. Not a rec though.

[Slykllist]

Going to try one more cycling bet see if I can get one on the board.

Wednesday 24th September - UCI World Cycling Championships Elite Mens Individual Time Trial.

Paddy Power - Fabian Cancellara to win @ 7/1 - I recommend a punt for a tenner.

Tony Martin is hot favourite to win this as the guy is just a machine, however today in the Tour of Spain time trail, Cancellara completed the back end of the course very marginally faster than Tony Martin which suggests he might have the kind of form to challenge Martin at the worlds and if anyone can beat him it's Cancellara at his very best.

Martin is just not worth backing at 1/2 but at 7/1 Cancellara looks a good bet.

[tikay]

If anyone's desperate for a bet on the Poshies TV match tonight (nothing worth watching on other channels), Joe Newell or Jermaine to score any time, both around 6-1 should be good for a bit of interest. Not a rec though.

Sigh.

[sonour]

great work on defoe horsey.

Amen to that, well done horsey.

Thanks

A shame an account with said firm is almost impossible to find!

Mrs bandit will have punished them there is nothing more certain even if no body else could get on she will have found a way!

If I was half as good as you thought I was, I'd be twice as ood as I am.

Thanks for the advice yesterday

[Ant040689]

One last one from me pre season. Wasn't going to put it up because of all the exposure, but it's the best value bet I have seen but truly a banzai.

Gayle to top score £5 ew 350/1 with b365

https://m.oddschecker.com/m#football-english-premier-league-top-goalscorer

Explained before how many chances Palace had without goals. Jerome probs at fault. Gayle hardly played but proved to be deadly with what little gametime he had. Also by the end of the season the pressure released off him and he was much more potent.

He may not start for us and have to work his way past Campbell, but he could eventually usher him out of the team with better finishing. The worry also would be a player like Wickham coming in via transfer (archetypal target man) that may not give either Campbell or Gayle a chance but that is more than incorporated into the price.

Altidore is 200/1 ffs with a goal to his name in 30 last season, while Gayle got 7 in extremely limited gametime especially when we were playing better under Pulis.

17 goals may well get the ew part of the bet through, and that isn't completely impossible.

My view came true about Gayle possibly getting a starting berth, and to be honest it has happened sooner than I thought, and he already has a goal to his name. Add to that the fact that Kevin Doyle has been brought in as a probable bench warmer/late sub, rather than a more potent signing that would challenge Gayle more, the bet looks in good shape. Campbell will be pushing hard, but I hope Gayle takes off.

Palace look capable of goals scoring 5 in 3 games, and especially in the last game, missed a few more chances that should have gone in. Hopefully a good environment for Gayle to rack up the goals.

On the injury worry front, he should be back to start at home against Burnley.

The price is still the same with Bet365 at 350/1, you need to look at the ew bet here, as you get effectively a 87.5/1 bet that Gayle scores around 17 or more (that secured top 4 last year), and at those odds it is massive value.

For comparison of the value, Ings is 200/1, Tom Ince is 250/1 and Matic is 200/1

I know you have trouble getting on with them. I have a fiver each way for you if you want it.

[Mark_Porter]

Graeme Mcdowell is part of the field that kicks off the BMW Championships (the third leg of the Fedex Cup playoffs) this week.

He has been relatively strong recently with a few top tens and decent performances in the majors. Looking back over the last 18 months he has actually won on 4 occasions.

Cherry Hills golf course should be all about accuracy with thick rough around the greens. He ranks in the top 20 on the PGA tour for driving accuracy this year and this type of course should suit him.

He is also, in golfing terms, well rested. He opted not to play last week when the majority of the field did. They didn't finish until Monday and have then had to travel 2000+ miles.

Then we have the Nappy Factor. He became a father for the first time just over a week ago.

55/1 with 365. 5 places. £7.50EW?

[tikay]

Graeme Mcdowell is part of the field that kicks off the BMW Championships (the third leg of the Fedex Cup playoffs) this week.

He has been relatively strong recently with a few top tens and decent performances in the majors. Looking back over the last 18 months he has actually won on 4 occasions.

Cherry Hills golf course should be all about accuracy with thick rough around the greens. He ranks in the top 20 on the PGA tour for driving accuracy this year and this type of course should suit him.

He is also, in golfing terms, well rested. He opted not to play last week when the majority of the field did. They didn't finish until Monday and have then had to travel 2000+ miles.

Then we have the Nappy Factor. He became a father for the first time just over a week ago.

55/1 with 365. 5 places. £7.50EW?

Thanks Mark.

I've no objections, not that I know that much about golf really, but I have been following G-mac for some time, & very profitably too.

The nappy Factor is interesting actually. Bobby1 has often mentioned it, & other "feel-good" variations on it, as a sort of left-field positive.

I've been following G-Mac's comments the last few weeks, since the birth of his baby thing.

I'm pretty sure he said something along the lines of "I've spent 99% of my time thinking about my baby, & 1% following golf news".

I'm sure there is a "priorities" gag there somewhere, but that would be my only worry - he may have "switched off". I think to win at Golf, an intense focus is needed.

Having said that, G-Mac, over his career, would probably have been great value if we had backed him every time @ 55/1.