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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13333615 times)
Waz1892
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« Reply #87600 on: September 24, 2014, 10:29:45 AM »

Chelsea play Bolton in League Cup tomorrow.

Pretty obvious Costa wont play.

Remy likely to start. He's 4/1 for first goal scorer with beteveryday (don't worry Tighty) when generally 3/1 or lower elsewhere.

Backing him e/w at 1/3 odds gives us better odds than anytime goalscorer that is best priced 10/11.

Bolton are awful.

Think Remy is great value at 4/1 e/w. Recommend £15e/w on him - Tighty, bankroll can have that from my bet if you fancy it.

tikay can't get on, so with no dissenting voices we'll avail ourselves of £15 e/w of your bet please.

Excuse the ignorance but how does an e/w work for first goal-scorer?  Surely he does or he doesn't?

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Carpe Diem
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« Reply #87601 on: September 24, 2014, 11:00:53 AM »

http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/premier-league/steven-caulker-arrested-after-being-accused-of-stealing-a-tub-of-philadelphia-cheese-9752456.html
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horseplayer
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« Reply #87602 on: September 24, 2014, 11:03:07 AM »

Kmac e.t.c

Hearts are 11/1 tonight away to Celtic

That cant be right, can it?
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RickBFA
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« Reply #87603 on: September 24, 2014, 11:48:54 AM »

Chelsea play Bolton in League Cup tomorrow.

Pretty obvious Costa wont play.

Remy likely to start. He's 4/1 for first goal scorer with beteveryday (don't worry Tighty) when generally 3/1 or lower elsewhere.

Backing him e/w at 1/3 odds gives us better odds than anytime goalscorer that is best priced 10/11.

Bolton are awful.

Think Remy is great value at 4/1 e/w. Recommend £15e/w on him - Tighty, bankroll can have that from my bet if you fancy it.

tikay can't get on, so with no dissenting voices we'll avail ourselves of £15 e/w of your bet please.

Excuse the ignorance but how does an e/w work for first goal-scorer?  Surely he does or he doesn't?



On the e/w element of the bet you receive 1/3 odds whenever the player scores. It's similar to a anytime goalscorer bet.

In the Remy example we get 4/1 times 1/3 on each way which was better than anytime scorer odds of 10/11.

Lets hope Chelsea thump Bolton now!

Tighty - £15e/w reserved for TFT as requested.
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Waz1892
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« Reply #87604 on: September 24, 2014, 12:24:09 PM »

Yes i get the 1/3 odds.

 In a horse race £5.00 e/w bet. 2.50 goes on the win, 2.50 goes on the place (2nd, 3rd etc)

What i dont understand is where does the. "Place" element go?

Your betting first goalscorer, which is a yes/no situ?!
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Carpe Diem
Marky147
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« Reply #87605 on: September 24, 2014, 12:29:23 PM »

Yes i get the 1/3 odds.

 In a horse race £5.00 e/w bet. 2.50 goes on the win, 2.50 goes on the place (2nd, 3rd etc)

What i dont understand is where does the. "Place" element go?

Your betting first goalscorer, which is a yes/no situ?!


The 'place' part is on the player scoring 'anytime', so if they score 2nd/3rd/4th etc.

Unless they score the 99th goal, you get paid with 366
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doubleup
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« Reply #87606 on: September 24, 2014, 12:32:06 PM »

It's prob loose terminology on the part of the bookies, but if the bet was half on first goal scorer and half on 1st 2nd or 3rd goal scorer, it would be quite close to the horse each way bet.

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Doobs
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« Reply #87607 on: September 24, 2014, 01:06:01 PM »

I don't know who is starting tonight but an each way double on Remy and somebody from Man City is even better.  Obviously could damage an account but if you have a bullet proof beteveryday account with lots of punting on it.   I don't think Spurs are strong enough to make it a treble. 

I won't be doing this personally, as my Beteveryday account is fairly valuable.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
RickBFA
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« Reply #87608 on: September 24, 2014, 01:24:57 PM »

I don't know who is starting tonight but an each way double on Remy and somebody from Man City is even better.  Obviously could damage an account but if you have a bullet proof beteveryday account with lots of punting on it.   I don't think Spurs are strong enough to make it a treble. 

I won't be doing this personally, as my Beteveryday account is fairly valuable.

Just read Man City forum. It appears likely Dzeko will start. Aguero and Jovetic out.

The other possible is Man City playing two youngsters upfront, although City fans seem to have heard they will be on the bench.
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Dubai
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« Reply #87609 on: September 24, 2014, 01:32:26 PM »

In Edinburgh for ryder cup- can someone point me in the direction of a max bet on it please to sweat
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Nakor
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« Reply #87610 on: September 24, 2014, 03:14:36 PM »

In Edinburgh for ryder cup- can someone point me in the direction of a max bet on it please to sweat

Best tip I can give is beg, borrow or steal to get a table at Andrew Fairlie. 
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Shit post Nakor, such a clown.

What do you get when you cross a joke with a rhetorical question?
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« Reply #87611 on: September 24, 2014, 03:41:29 PM »

4th time lucky hopefully!!!!!

Recommend Jack Payne firstscorer (18-1 with vee cee, cooral) and anytime scorer (13-2 vee cee)  Southend v Shrewbury.

Same reasons as posted the last three times with slight advantage this time that the shrimpers are at home, albeit facing a team of very similar ability.

Only thing to add is that i am keen now to include him as an anytime scorer than previous. Brown's confidence in him is growing, as it should with his impressive performances and is leaving him on the pitch for the majority of the game, just bringing him off for the last few minutes.

Whilst it is clearly value for both i just wanted to check whether my calculations are correct for anytime scorer. I have him in at 4-1, which correlates with the bookies prices for players much shorter in the betting (price Jack should be).

Can one of you maths gurus check if it correct.

Firast of all my assumptions are that Jack scores 16% of Southend's goals and have a goal expectancy of 1.3 (lets assume these are correct, and goal expectancy certainly can not really be lower, and our edge is that we think/know Jack scores a higher percentage of goals than the books think)

My calcs were: first southend goal he is 16% so 5.25 to 1 and then they are in for another .3 of a goal so (.3 x .16) about 19-1.

These are the chances of him scoring so to work it out need to find the chances of him not scoring. So multiply the inverse of 5.25 and 19-1 to get the chance of him scoring. So 1.19 x 1.052 = 1.25.

He is 1.25 not to score so 4-1 to score. Is that correct?



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TightEnd
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« Reply #87612 on: September 24, 2014, 04:58:49 PM »

when are the first Ryder Cup pairings for Friday morning due?

Sometime tomorrow afternoon? later?

if we follow bobby1's thoughts, and Rory/Sergio are paired, we need to spot a couple of those in the first pairings who should play 4-5 times for the top European market...
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I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
TightEnd
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« Reply #87613 on: September 24, 2014, 05:49:56 PM »

4th time lucky hopefully!!!!!

Recommend Jack Payne firstscorer (18-1 with vee cee, cooral) and anytime scorer (13-2 vee cee)  Southend v Shrewbury.

Same reasons as posted the last three times with slight advantage this time that the shrimpers are at home, albeit facing a team of very similar ability.

Only thing to add is that i am keen now to include him as an anytime scorer than previous. Brown's confidence in him is growing, as it should with his impressive performances and is leaving him on the pitch for the majority of the game, just bringing him off for the last few minutes.

Whilst it is clearly value for both i just wanted to check whether my calculations are correct for anytime scorer. I have him in at 4-1, which correlates with the bookies prices for players much shorter in the betting (price Jack should be).

Can one of you maths gurus check if it correct.

Firast of all my assumptions are that Jack scores 16% of Southend's goals and have a goal expectancy of 1.3 (lets assume these are correct, and goal expectancy certainly can not really be lower, and our edge is that we think/know Jack scores a higher percentage of goals than the books think)

My calcs were: first southend goal he is 16% so 5.25 to 1 and then they are in for another .3 of a goal so (.3 x .16) about 19-1.

These are the chances of him scoring so to work it out need to find the chances of him not scoring. So multiply the inverse of 5.25 and 19-1 to get the chance of him scoring. So 1.19 x 1.052 = 1.25.

He is 1.25 not to score so 4-1 to score. Is that correct?





i missed the better price a little

but we'll give it another go.

Southend United v Shrewsbury Town Jack Payne (1st Goalscorer - 90 Mins) Odds: 16/1 Stake: 10.00 Possible Return:  170.00
Southend United v Shrewsbury Town Jack Payne (Anytime Goalscorer - 90 Mins) Odds: 6/1 Stake: 10.00 Possible Return:  70.00
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rinswun
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« Reply #87614 on: September 24, 2014, 06:15:21 PM »

Tighty, just to prove people do read the daily reports in their entirety, I noticed your purposeful 'error' in reporting the NFL's Detroit Lions giving up a late innings 3-0 lead! Well played!
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