Tips for Tikay

[BigAdz]

Its tempting to suggest no one else should post, to clutter up the thread in case we miss his posts.

[exstream]

Tips from Dubai thread?

[Tonji]

@ Tal FYI

http://www.sfballet.org/worldballetday

enjoy the armography, the grande & demie plié 

[Bad Beat]

Feels like a while since I put a horse tip on here. I had two bets today. I've had enough on them and I think, although the prices have shortened a little, that they are both decent bets.

 On Saturday at Ascot it's the Totepool Challenge...an apparently impossible handicap where some firm will go 1/4 first 9 offer the worst price on oddschecker every runner and then tell everyone who goes in a shop to have a tenner each-way that it's win-only.

 The reason it's a great race to have a bet is that Ascot attempt to protect the ground for Champion's Day by narrowing the straight course and keeping the safety limit to 18. 48-hour decs mean they'll be 18 down to run tomorrow morning and plenty of time for non-runners, especially if it rains/doesn't rain enough. I guess we'll end up with 14 or 15 runners and if we bet now we are getting FOUR places and 8/1 the field. There are only four horses less than 14/1 so pretty much anytime we get one that actually runs we've had a value bet.

 I've backed Highland Acclaim from the outstanding O'Meara stable at 12/1. I would have been happy taking 8/1 and I could easily see this being 6/1 or less on the off. Stable in form, horse loves Ascot, unlucky in the Ayr Gold Cup, step up in trip should suit.

 The other one I bet is American Hero. Bit unlucky when beaten at Ascot earlier in the year, he was beaten at 1/100 in running. His other best run was here too and he'll like the drop back to 7f. I backed this one at 10/1. He was tipped earlier this week at 14/1 by Hugh Taylor long before I remembered how great this race is for each-way betting. I still think he'll be 7/1 or less on Saturday and the place part is so solid.

 You can get 10/1 and 9/1 these two. I would happily take 9/1 and 8/1. I'd have more on Highland Acclaim.

 If anyone has any other horses in the race that they see as a certain runner you could easily bet five or six each-way and be doing the right thing.

 You have until 10am tomorrow to bet and then they'll reform the market. From then on it becomes money back on non-runners but you are facing the prospects of Rule 4 and the change in place terms to 123.

[Tal]

@ Tal FYI

http://www.sfballet.org/worldballetday

enjoy the armography, the grande & demie plié 

Believe it or not, I'm nowhere near posh enough for ballet. More a Gascoigne Jr thing, methinks.

Don't get me wrong, I can tell the difference between a développé and a jeté and who doesn't appreciate Darcey Bussell or Carlos Acosta when you see them do their thing, but after that, I'm tapping out.

[Junior Senior]

Anyone heard from Hills yet about when they'll pay up on warmest day bet?
Surely they can't wait until Jan 2015!

[JoeBeevers]

Big rumour of twins today does that make any difference before i steam in?  Not having any kids i am not a specialist in this area!

Yes, big difference. Toss of a coin if it's twins. Didn't see those rumours before - supposedly Will Hill took 200 bets on twins before removing the market...

Real odds of twins is one birth in 70 and identical twins is 1 in 1000. Insurance companies generally offer 'twin insurance' and pay about 30/1 to your premium.

Much more likely to have a caesarean if it is twins. Paddy still offer 2/1. Not rushing to take that. Hoping that twins is a bit like a rush on a new manager market, mostly speculation and no substance.

Interested to hear if Dubai, or anyone, likes a Monday birth (11/2 general) whether twins or otherwise.

[tikay]

Big rumour of twins today does that make any difference before i steam in?  Not having any kids i am not a specialist in this area!

Yes, big difference. Toss of a coin if it's twins. Didn't see those rumours before - supposedly Will Hill took 200 bets on twins before removing the market...

Real odds of twins is one birth in 70 and identical twins is 1 in 1000. Insurance companies generally offer 'twin insurance' and pay about 30/1 to your premium.

Much more likely to have a caesarean if it is twins. Paddy still offer 2/1. Not rushing to take that. Hoping that twins is a bit like a rush on a new manager market, mostly speculation and no substance.

Interested to hear if Dubai, or anyone, likes a Monday birth (11/2 general) whether twins or otherwise.

And what exactly would YOU know about Twins, Joe?

[tikay]

Feels like a while since I put a horse tip on here. I had two bets today. I've had enough on them and I think, although the prices have shortened a little, that they are both decent bets.

 On Saturday at Ascot it's the Totepool Challenge...an apparently impossible handicap where some firm will go 1/4 first 9 offer the worst price on oddschecker every runner and then tell everyone who goes in a shop to have a tenner each-way that it's win-only.

 The reason it's a great race to have a bet is that Ascot attempt to protect the ground for Champion's Day by narrowing the straight course and keeping the safety limit to 18. 48-hour decs mean they'll be 18 down to run tomorrow morning and plenty of time for non-runners, especially if it rains/doesn't rain enough. I guess we'll end up with 14 or 15 runners and if we bet now we are getting FOUR places and 8/1 the field. There are only four horses less than 14/1 so pretty much anytime we get one that actually runs we've had a value bet.

 I've backed Highland Acclaim from the outstanding O'Meara stable at 12/1. I would have been happy taking 8/1 and I could easily see this being 6/1 or less on the off. Stable in form, horse loves Ascot, unlucky in the Ayr Gold Cup, step up in trip should suit.

 The other one I bet is American Hero. Bit unlucky when beaten at Ascot earlier in the year, he was beaten at 1/100 in running. His other best run was here too and he'll like the drop back to 7f. I backed this one at 10/1. He was tipped earlier this week at 14/1 by Hugh Taylor long before I remembered how great this race is for each-way betting. I still think he'll be 7/1 or less on Saturday and the place part is so solid.

 You can get 10/1 and 9/1 these two. I would happily take 9/1 and 8/1. I'd have more on Highland Acclaim.

 If anyone has any other horses in the race that they see as a certain runner you could easily bet five or six each-way and be doing the right thing.

 You have until 10am tomorrow to bet and then they'll reform the market. From then on it becomes money back on non-runners but you are facing the prospects of Rule 4 and the change in place terms to 123.

Thanks Neil.

I've not done those in case Tighty has already loaded up.

The prices have shortened in both cases, but remain close to what you suggested are value. 

The markets will be reformed in the next 45 minutes, presumably.

Current prices are here.....

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/flat/totepool-challenge-cup/winner

[TightEnd]

Feels like a while since I put a horse tip on here. I had two bets today. I've had enough on them and I think, although the prices have shortened a little, that they are both decent bets.

 On Saturday at Ascot it's the Totepool Challenge...an apparently impossible handicap where some firm will go 1/4 first 9 offer the worst price on oddschecker every runner and then tell everyone who goes in a shop to have a tenner each-way that it's win-only.

 The reason it's a great race to have a bet is that Ascot attempt to protect the ground for Champion's Day by narrowing the straight course and keeping the safety limit to 18. 48-hour decs mean they'll be 18 down to run tomorrow morning and plenty of time for non-runners, especially if it rains/doesn't rain enough. I guess we'll end up with 14 or 15 runners and if we bet now we are getting FOUR places and 8/1 the field. There are only four horses less than 14/1 so pretty much anytime we get one that actually runs we've had a value bet.

 I've backed Highland Acclaim from the outstanding O'Meara stable at 12/1. I would have been happy taking 8/1 and I could easily see this being 6/1 or less on the off. Stable in form, horse loves Ascot, unlucky in the Ayr Gold Cup, step up in trip should suit.

 The other one I bet is American Hero. Bit unlucky when beaten at Ascot earlier in the year, he was beaten at 1/100 in running. His other best run was here too and he'll like the drop back to 7f. I backed this one at 10/1. He was tipped earlier this week at 14/1 by Hugh Taylor long before I remembered how great this race is for each-way betting. I still think he'll be 7/1 or less on Saturday and the place part is so solid.

 You can get 10/1 and 9/1 these two. I would happily take 9/1 and 8/1. I'd have more on Highland Acclaim.

 If anyone has any other horses in the race that they see as a certain runner you could easily bet five or six each-way and be doing the right thing.

 You have until 10am tomorrow to bet and then they'll reform the market. From then on it becomes money back on non-runners but you are facing the prospects of Rule 4 and the change in place terms to 123.

these were a bit awkward than i thought, had to shop around because of restrictions, had trouble getting on which surprised me

Sportingbet

        Bet Type: Single
            Totepool Challenge Cup Handicap (Ascot 4th October) Latest Prices
                Highland Acclaim 10/1
                Each Way: 1/4 1 - 4
        Possible Payout 87.00 GBP
    2 bets @
    6.00 GBP

    Total Cost: 12.00 GBP
    Total Possible Payout (inc. stake): 87.00 GBP


Betfair sportsbook

 Singles
Odds Stake
15:00 Ascot 4th Oct

    9/1
    £117.57
    Highland Acclaim
    Challenge Cup
    £8.88 EW

    Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000099

betvictor

 Totepool Challenge Cup Highland Acclaim (EW) (Horse Racing Outright - Race) Odds: 8/1 Stake: 30.00 Possible Return:  180.00

 Totepool Challenge Cup American Hope (EW) (Horse Racing Outright - Race) Odds: 8/1 Stake: 40.00 Possible Return:  240.00


anyway we ended up with £30 e/w and £20 e/w at c8.75/1 and 8/1

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £0

Outstanding Bets £3931.26

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=24

No bets completed yesterday. Unfortunately I wasn't around when the recommendation for the Arsenal game went up. Welbeck, who will never score for Arsenal, proceeded to score a 33-1 hat-trick including the first goal of the game

Click to see full-size image.

For the first time this season, Richard Hughes took the lead in the Jockeys Campionship, now 146-144 after riding a series of winners at Salisbury yesterday. In one race it was a match, he and Moore, and won that

http://www.thepja.co.uk/championships/flat-jockeys-championship/

Tapestry has been supplemented for the Arc, only 120k to do so. Quite difficult not to be excited about £25 at 25-1 Ectot when you see it sitting there 5-1 co-favourite in places

Tonight game 1 of the ALDS in Anaheim for the Kansas City Royals



The Green Bay Packers, on whom we have positions, host the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday night football at the iconic Lambeau field

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

for lovers of a good shortie

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/29455024

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/japanese-grand-prix/safety-car

There has been at least one Safety Car in five of the last seven races at Suzuka, only two have been wet.

[horseplayer]

Dani Alves: "I am moving to England next year, I'm going to play in the home of football. This will be my last year at Barcelona."

[Tal]

Dani Alves: "I am moving to England next year, I'm going to play in the home of football. This will be my last year at Barcelona."

QPR?

[horseplayer]

Be interesting to see if there is a book made on his next club