Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

Is that a typo?

(In before someone says "no, andros really is in the squad")

Welbeck plays for United. Watch out for the bookies refusing to pay out on top gooner...

copy and paste jobsworth about to get fired!

[BigAdz]

Yes. And if he isn't it's because the bet is in terrible shape already ie he has flopped. Be odds on in 5 games

Spot on. If he is clearing up, he can't be dropped.

[exstream]

In the Championship this weekend sees a home team at 3.6 on betfair vs a team at 2.14.
The home team have a home record this season of 1-2-2 scoring 6, conceding 8.
The losses were a 0-2 to Derby and a 1-2 to Middlesborough, two of the top 5 most likely to go up this season as per oddschecker.
The away team has an away record of 1-2-2 only beating Huddersfield away 4-0.

Already, the price for a home team at 3.6 looks big to me, factor in the above and that it's a 7 points team vs a 12 points team, how are they 3.6?

Bolton vs Bournemouth.

5 point difference, wouldn't think the gap in class would be so big to make the home team that price.

because they are second bottom, having lost 7 out of 10, with one win at home in 5 games, condeding 20 goals

the manager must be due the push, which may or may not work in favour of a bet here by Saturday

i accept the run of games hasn't been easy, but then again few are in the Championship

I watched Bournemouth away at Watford, nice Eddie Howe team, good football, quite impressive

[arbboy]

In the Championship this weekend sees a home team at 3.6 on betfair vs a team at 2.14.
The home team have a home record this season of 1-2-2 scoring 6, conceding 8.
The losses were a 0-2 to Derby and a 1-2 to Middlesborough, two of the top 5 most likely to go up this season as per oddschecker.
The away team has an away record of 1-2-2 only beating Huddersfield away 4-0.

Already, the price for a home team at 3.6 looks big to me, factor in the above and that it's a 7 points team vs a 12 points team, how are they 3.6?

Bolton vs Bournemouth.

5 point difference, wouldn't think the gap in class would be so big to make the home team that price.

because they are second bottom, having lost 7 out of 10, with one win at home in 5 games, condeding 20 goals

the manager must be due the push, which may or may not work in favour of a bet here by Saturday

i accept the run of games hasn't been easy, but then again few are in the Championship

I watched Bournemouth away at Watford, nice Eddie Howe team, good football, quite impressive

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/bolton-v-bournemouth/winner

27/10 now.  I think it's a big price but everyone knows my views on laying short ones in this division generally.

[DungBeetle]

It does feel big, but Bolton just looked so poor in the game I saw them play this season, and presumably were dreadful at Fulham last night.

[jakally]

Bolton are woeful. Stats-wise they rate very close to Blackpool.
Sporting Index rate Bournemouth top 6 (points projection now to end of season).

I took Bournemouth at 2.55. No bet for me at current prices.

[arbboy]

It does feel big, but Bolton just looked so poor in the game I saw them play this season, and presumably were dreadful at Fulham last night.

It makes Bournemouth an 8/15 shot if the game was at their place?  Would you be as keen to back a team placed 15th in the league at 8/15 for a home league game in the championship?  Very quick way to the poor house imo.

[horseplayer]

Bolton were beyond poor last night

Everything has a price but they are still if anything underpriced to me

[DungBeetle]

Yeah - I definitely wouldn't back Bournemouth at the price.  Just can't bring myself to back Bolton from what I have seen of them.

[arbboy]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/promotion

Bournemouth must be close to value to go up at 10/1 then given their spin points quote?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/top-6-finish

Paddy are 5/1 top 6 finish which is a redic price and makes then even money to win the play offs effectively should they get there when they would be a 11/4 shot making them close to 20/1 to go up if they are 5/1 to finish in the top 6 (this doesn't include the freeroll of them binking a top2 finish)

[horseplayer]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/promotion

Bournemouth must be close to value to go up at 10/1 then given their spin points quote?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/top-6-finish

Paddy are 5/1 top 6 finish which is a redic price and makes then even money to win the play offs effectively should they get there when they would be a 11/4 shot making them close to 20/1 to go up if they are 5/1 to finish in the top 6 (this doesn't include the freeroll of them binking a top2 finish)

worth monitoring

They have plenty of cash behind them and i get the impression if they are within shouting distance of the play off race come Jan they will be getting busy again

[exstream]

Lee Camp, Bournemouths goalkeeper is banned for the game vs bolton.

[jakally]

Lee Camp, Bournemouths goalkeeper is banned for the game vs bolton.

'Howe also confirmed that Artur Boruc missed out with a sickness bug, but he is expected to recover in time to face Bolton Wanderers on Saturday. ' (Bournemouth website)

Boruc has already played a couple of first team games so impact should be very small.

[JoeBeevers]

Big rumour of twins today does that make any difference before i steam in?  Not having any kids i am not a specialist in this area!

Yes, big difference. Toss of a coin if it's twins. Didn't see those rumours before - supposedly Will Hill took 200 bets on twins before removing the market...

Real odds of twins is one birth in 70 and identical twins is 1 in 1000. Insurance companies generally offer 'twin insurance' and pay about 30/1 to your premium.

Much more likely to have a caesarean if it is twins. Paddy still offer 2/1. Not rushing to take that. Hoping that twins is a bit like a rush on a new manager market, mostly speculation and no substance.

Interested to hear if Dubai, or anyone, likes a Monday birth (11/2 general) whether twins or otherwise.

And what exactly would YOU know about Twins, Joe?

There are two reasons why there could be money for twins. One is a leak from the scanner at the hospital and the second is an (over) reaction to Kate's terrible morning sickness. Morning sickness with twins is far more acute than with one baby and at the first sign of an expectant mother reaching for the sick bag the question is asked by observers. It's far more likely that the rumour starts here rather than at the hospital. Morning sickness is not new to Kate, she suffered badly last time too:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-2270378/Severe-morning-sickness-early-pregnancy-puts-Kate-Middleton-expectant-mothers-risk-pre-eclampsia.html

2/1 twins at this point is redic, at least Dick Turpin wore a mask.

I tried to work out the likely due date and got a bit of a headache. April is currently 4/6 favourite. One thing to watch for though is that IF twins are confirmed then March at 9/4 would be wrong (and a decent bet) as it would likely be an earlier birth and depending on what the 'real' due date was Feb at 12/1 may be tempting too.

[arbboy]

Big rumour of twins today does that make any difference before i steam in?  Not having any kids i am not a specialist in this area!

Yes, big difference. Toss of a coin if it's twins. Didn't see those rumours before - supposedly Will Hill took 200 bets on twins before removing the market...

Real odds of twins is one birth in 70 and identical twins is 1 in 1000. Insurance companies generally offer 'twin insurance' and pay about 30/1 to your premium.

Much more likely to have a caesarean if it is twins. Paddy still offer 2/1. Not rushing to take that. Hoping that twins is a bit like a rush on a new manager market, mostly speculation and no substance.

Interested to hear if Dubai, or anyone, likes a Monday birth (11/2 general) whether twins or otherwise.

And what exactly would YOU know about Twins, Joe?

There are two reasons why there could be money for twins. One is a leak from the scanner at the hospital and the second is an (over) reaction to Kate's terrible morning sickness. Morning sickness with twins is far more acute than with one baby and at the first sign of an expectant mother reaching for the sick bag the question is asked by observers. It's far more likely that the rumour starts here rather than at the hospital. Morning sickness is not new to Kate, she suffered badly last time too:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-2270378/Severe-morning-sickness-early-pregnancy-puts-Kate-Middleton-expectant-mothers-risk-pre-eclampsia.html

2/1 twins at this point is redic, at least Dick Turpin wore a mask.

I tried to work out the likely due date and got a bit of a headache. April is currently 4/6 favourite. One thing to watch for though is that IF twins are confirmed then March at 9/4 would be wrong (and a decent bet) as it would likely be an earlier birth and depending on what the 'real' due date was Feb at 12/1 may be tempting too.

Pro gamblers discussing women having twins!!!  What is the world coming to in order to make a few quid!!!  i am more interested in how they are going to settle the name of the baby if there are twins?  Dead heat rules or the first one to pop out?