Tips for Tikay

[BorntoBubble]

People keep mentioning Paddy Power

Its quite frustrating to keep mentioning that we can't bet with them, they won't lay any bets etc

I appreciate others will be able to take advantage but there's not a lot of point putting PP stuff up here I am afraid and giving their ludicrous strategy the oxygen of publicity

thanks

I know "we" (Tikay) cannot but a lot of other people can so I dont see why it cannot be posted. Im not posting I recommmed Tikay bets £50 on the 3 dog with PP im just putting it out there for everyone else to see, the same way in which scuy bets are posted and bet £3.65.

Also if i put it out there for discussion one of the horse racing elders might pop up and say Callum your barking mad dont back that horse. Or they may back up the Rec and say actually we should be getting on this anyway whether it be with PP or otherwise.

[Tal]

Jets haven't won against the spread this season and are the only team with that record this season, apparently.

I raise that stat with

The Jets play Tom Brady tonight five days after playing Peyton Manning

they are the first team ever to have had to play Brady then Manning or vice versa within 5 days of each other

(goes to rake the pot, waits for Tal to tap table)

Dealer, give the man his chips.

[bobby1]

Talking of Choc Thornton reminds me, does anyone know if Adzy is OK?

He has not logged into blonde since Sunday.

Hopefully he is just buying up great swathes pf land in the South of France from the money he won on my "NO SAFETY CAR" coup.

Think Adzy is in Poland, prob buying pole dancers.

[TightEnd]

People keep mentioning Paddy Power

Its quite frustrating to keep mentioning that we can't bet with them, they won't lay any bets etc

I appreciate others will be able to take advantage but there's not a lot of point putting PP stuff up here I am afraid and giving their ludicrous strategy the oxygen of publicity

thanks

I know "we" (Tikay) cannot but a lot of other people can so I dont see why it cannot be posted. Im not posting I recommmed Tikay bets £50 on the 3 dog with PP im just putting it out there for everyone else to see, the same way in which scuy bets are posted and bet £3.65.

Also if i put it out there for discussion one of the horse racing elders might pop up and say Callum your barking mad dont back that horse. Or they may back up the Rec and say actually we should be getting on this anyway whether it be with PP or otherwise.

"I would wait for closer to the off where the prices level out a bit and back for the full £50 not often do they do this on races with such a short priced fav."

reads exactly like you want Tft to back it

I do understand others can use the info. Perhaps best off in the racing thread where people can use it

[horseplayer]

Its no good to me but not many read the racing thread so thanks for posting

[tikay]

Talking of Choc Thornton reminds me, does anyone know if Adzy is OK?

He has not logged into blonde since Sunday.

Hopefully he is just buying up great swathes pf land in the South of France from the money he won on my "NO SAFETY CAR" coup.

Think Adzy is in Poland, prob buying pole dancers.

Ahh yes, think he said he was going to a Concrete Conference.

Am so jealous.

[tikay]

Scuy bet "Racing Specials" have some interesting stuff tonight.....

[Chompy]

People keep mentioning Paddy Power

Its quite frustrating to keep mentioning that we can't bet with them, they won't lay any bets etc

I appreciate others will be able to take advantage but there's not a lot of point putting PP stuff up here I am afraid and giving their ludicrous strategy the oxygen of publicity

thanks

Very much this.

[arbboy]

Adz's dog which hosed up for us with a big outside bias at 5/1 last thurs night runs again tomorrow morning on the bags meeting at hove.

http://www.racingpost.com/greyhounds/card.sd#resultDay=2014-10-17&raceId=1323905

[bobby1]

have no clue about american football but pp go 10/1 that patriots win each quarter tonight

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/new-york-jets-at-new-england-patriots/1st-quarter-winner
http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/new-york-jets-at-new-england-patriots/2nd-quarter-winner
http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/new-york-jets-at-new-england-patriots/3rd-quarter-winner
http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/new-york-jets-at-new-england-patriots/4th-quarter-winner

Going by best odds on those, it would come out at 7/1, I think?

Pretty sure this is reverse correlated as well in that if NE have won the first 3 qtrs they will be a bigger price to win the final qtr as there will be little incentive for them to score in the final quarter and they will close the game out kneeling etc etc.  Not 100% on this as not an nfl expert but it seems logical.  The weasal irish firm are good at making things look attractive that are not.  Also in at least one qtr they will not start with the ball (either 1st or 3rd qtr) this isn't priced into these prices either as the loltraders don't know which team will kick off in each half (thinking about it more these two probably cancel each other out).

Think Arb is deffo looking at it the right way, I would probably rather bet the big favs to win the first three and lose the last qtr in a generic 10 point fav game. This is usually a big Divisional game tho and Rex Ryan has gone out of his way in the past to fire jibes at Bill Belichick. The Pats did run up a score against the Jets in one of these games in 2010 when there had been a lot of digs from Ryan that season. They did so again in a 2012 Divisional game in New York too winning those games  45-3 and 49-19. They won every qtr in the 45-3 game but tied the first at 0-0 and lost the 3rd qtr in the 49-19 game where the Jets scored 9 of their 19 points in the third qtr.

So there is some recent history of Belichick doing the humiliating on the field instead of exchanging words. I think he even fined Wes Welker for replying to one of Ryan's barbs because he wanted to reiterate that wasn't the way his club operated. So there is at least some bad blood going back a few years between the teams.

Don't think 10/1 is too bad really but the added downside is it's a Thursday night game so a short week since their last game. Brady has a little ankle issue so on a short week it would make a lot of sense to be getting Brady out of the game if they are well in front and letting Jimmy Garoppolo in to close out the game. I like Jimmy a lot so if they do still attack with him in you will have a chance but the mentality could just change late in the game with back up wr's and rb's in if it is a blow out. What would put me off tho is Pats usually elect to kick off if they win the toss and Jets would probably want the ball first if they won the toss as their running game is ok when they are in contention and they quickly get away from it when behind, so not a good idea to give the Pats first chance at scoring.

Obv it could still win the hard way with a 10-7 10-7 3-0 7-0 type win and Jets could easily stop trying for field goals late in the game if they are well behind. Pats did keep going until late in a big win against Cincy the other week after an embarrassing blowout loss on National TV so that might give them some incentive to put on a show if in front too.

Basically I think there is more of a chance that Pats would run up a score in this game than most teams would in a game they win easily. You also know there is a risk that on a short week they pull their starters if they are leading but that doesn't stop you from winning. if they are pulling starters it's prob good news for the bet they are winning easily. Would probably have a 'half fancy it at the price bet' because not all 10 point fav games have this type of background to them.

[arbboy]

At best prices as well from those oddschecker links it's closer to 8/1 not 7/1.  Given none of the best prices available are to 100% true books (most are 105%+ books taking the best price of all 3 outcomes) 10/1 is probably under the 'true' price anyway before you add in the thurs night factor and the reverse correlation.  Looks a solid dodge for me at 10/1.  In fact i would probably be happy to lay it after Bobby's comments.

[arbboy]

onto other things nfl there is quite a lumpy commission free arb at ladbrokes and 365 if you can get on with both.

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/new-york-jets-at-new-england-patriots/including-draw
http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/new-york-jets-at-new-england-patriots/overtime

Backing no overtime at 1/16 with lads and 28/1 regular time draw in the 3 way win market with bet365 (even though they offer the same bet at 14/1 in the overtime market).  Pretty sure both bets are 'value' and the true price is around the 20-25/1 mark for overtime.  Anyone got any strong views on which price is 'more' right given its a 9.5 fav game?

Easy risk free 2.5% return for whatever you can get on.  Lads will lay £1k/£16k on a clean account.  365 will lay the 28/1 to lose £2k on a clean account.

[horseplayer]

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/flat/queen-elizabeth-ii-stakes/winner

SUGGEST £20 EWAY KINGSBARNS 20/1 various firms

Ground fine, not had a hard season excuses for runs this season expect this to be closer to single figures come Saturday

[bobby1]

At best prices as well from those oddschecker links it's closer to 8/1 not 7/1.  Given none of the best prices available are to 100% true books (most are 105%+ books taking the best price of all 3 outcomes) 10/1 is probably under the 'true' price anyway before you add in the thurs night factor and the reverse correlation.  Looks a solid dodge for me at 10/1.  In fact i would probably be happy to lay it after Bobby's comments.

My man love for Jimmy G might have got in the way a little Arb ;o). I can't say I know what the right price is tho 10/1 didn't strike me as awful given the books will prob have the same prices for this kind of market in all 10 point fav games and an o/u around 44 1/2.

 Actually the line is 9 1/2 with Jets fav now so maybe the shrewdies are running the 'more likely to rest players if winning added option of a backdoor cover against back ups' angle in a Thursday night game too.

[BorntoBubble]

I really don't understand the mentality of if TFT cannot get on don't post it. I've learnt a hell of a lot from this thread and it's nice to try and give back to each of the people who contribute and not just post tips for tikay but for everyone to back.

Not everyone reads the racing thread or greyhound thread etc so nice for other people to see.

I sometimes am too busy and only skim read TFT so would miss the bets if they are all segregated. I'm happy to be told I'm wrong here but I really cannot see the downside of posting these bets if they are +ev