Rugby's European Champions cup starts tomorrow
the successor to the Heineken cup
20 teams, not 24, with a lot of the Pro 12 also rans not able to qualify this time round
5 groups, winners and three best runners up through the quarters
Toulon going for three titles in a row, this time without the shoo-in for sports personality of the year, Jonny Wlkinson
With the best will in the world, the Welsh and Scottish teams aren't going to the final stages of this
For England Leicester are a shadow of previous years, rebuilding and injury hit. Bath developing but the challenge should come from Northampton and Saracens
Leinster, Ulster and Munster are always competitive
The French teams are the key to deciphering this, in large part because they don't operate in a salary cap environment and can hoard talent. Even Sarcens, who manage to work round the salary cap to an extent, don't have the depth the French teams can put out when the season is at its height
http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/european-champions-cup/winnerlooking for value for a run at a price.
Toulouse are four-time champions but have lost five of their nine French top-flight games and only climbed out of the bottom two by beating Toulon at the weekend.
If they click, they have one of the best squads in the competition
Maxime Medard, Vincent Clerc, Florian Fritz, Gael Fickou, Yoann Huget and Luke McAlister or Toby Flood at fly-half in the backs
forwards such as Imanol Harinordoquy, Louis Picamoles,Thierry Dusautoir and Yoann Maestri
Toulouse have the biggest playing budget for many seasons not just within France but in Europe too
What i like about them is two-fold
a) their price, 20-1 each way rated 4th of the 6th French teams. This is a side routinely priced in the top few in the market but not this season because of short term form
b) their group
the groups are shown at
http://www.epcrugby.com/europeanrugbychampionscup/pools/index.phpremember winner only, plus 3 best others
a group containing Leicester, Toulon, Ulster and Scarlets is horrendous
two of the groups are comparatively easy. Northampton's and Toulouse's
for Toulouse, Bath, Montpellier and Glasgow is almost as good as it comes (Northampton also, but at 7-1 look short)
before Hector reminds me, the CESMs can travel poorly, so a second french team in the pool is good.
Recommendation £15 e/w Toulouse at 20-1 coral, betvictor, betfred
http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/european-champions-cup/winner-
Top try scorer
a very competitve heat with great finishers like North, Ashton, Habana, Nalaga at the head of the market
Very nearly scooped in this last year, Nalaga finishing second to Ashton
only offered in one place
http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/european-champions-cup/top-tryscorerfor very small stakes only, but if Toulouse are a price as a team, in a softer group then both of these are value
Gael Fickou 40-1
Maxime Medard 100-1
Fickou is only 20, but really one to watch. Sublime skills, only getting better and surrounded by talent to create chances
Recommend £5 e/w on both Ladbrokes. It's correlated of course with the team doing well.
--
Toulouse begin their campaign at home to Montpellier Sunday lunchtime
Wn that (Montpellier 4th in the french top 14) and we are in business
Author