Question for nefflers.
One of our bets for the season is on Julio Jones's receiving yards. He's got a tough match up today against a young cornerback who's getting column inches for his development and is being touted as an elite player in his position: Jimmy Smith.
Jones has been carrying a knock of late and his practice has been limited. He is expected to suit up, though. With only four catches from twelve targets last week, Jones could only muster 68 yards.
The shouty red man asks us whether he'll get more or fewer than 95.5 yards this evening (others have lower lines). Although wideout yards can be made in one or two big plays and although the Ravens secondary is generally poor, they know where Matt Ryan is going to be looking first and that can't hurt the defence. I think we should be looking to back the unders.
Thoughts?
Atlanta's problem is three fold
a) the starting OL has been decimated, only one of the 5 who started the season is uninjured and he's a rookie, albeit a very good one, Jake Matthews at LT
b) the defense is slow, and lacks talent
c) the team struggles away and particularly struggles outside domes
for the passing bets (Ryan, Julio Jones) a) is the most important as without adequate protection Ryan is having difficulty stepping into throws as he doesn't have the time to go through his progressions. this throws the timing off (withness the drops last week)
Julio is also struggling with a foot injury
Ryan's passing yards bet is being bailed out by screens and passes to backs near the line of scrimmage. Antone Smith for example is taking passes at the line and running them, for 40-60 yard touchdowns. this goes onto passing yards but isn't indicative of an offense meshing together
Julio's bet....also not helped by Roddy White appearing uninterested and Harry Douglas's injury, so defenses can double Julio (which wasn't the thought at the beginning of the season)
I'm waffling. At Baltimore against their pass rush (suggs etc) and decent cornerbacks i would be on unders Julio Jones too
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