Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

Vydra looks much more of a provider these days and Deeney on pens good injury record top six at least team will play most/all games

think it is a crackerjack at 40's

[TightEnd]

Vydra looks much more of a provider these days and Deeney on pens good injury record top six at least team will play most/all games

think it is a crackerjack at 40's

Vydra was a 1 in 2 goalscorer at Watford three years ago (22 in 41 or so) and is 5 in 10 this season

not much of a difference really, and would expect his ratio to continue once Deeney is back

[horseplayer]

Its that time were i ask for the nfl tip for tonight from either Tighty or the new nfl guru Tal?

cheers

[TightEnd]

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers

Monday night football sees the improving Texans travel to the frustratingly inconsistent Steelers as 3 point underdogs.  Houston’s defense is legitimately good, led by the best defender in the league JJ Watt who will be a huge challenge for the Pittsburgh offensive line here

Houston’s offense lacks a quarterback, one of the few pieces they need to add to look like a play-off team but in Arian Foster and the running game they have a very effective way to control the clock and score points. I have more confidence in them as a team than the Steelers, who have talent in players like Antonio Brown and Le’veon Bell but rarely perform to their potential, either in coaching or strategy


Possibilities for the talarishiguru to ponder might include

Houston +3

You can get nearly 6/4 outright too

Arian Foster overs 90.5 though probably not as attractive as

Roethlisberger passing yard unders 265

He's gone under this 3 out of the 4 times he's played a decent defense this season (@Bal, @Cleve, @Car)

the key to the game will be the Pitt OL v Watt and the Houston front 7

[tikay]

Its that time were i ask for the nfl tip for tonight from either Tighty or the new nfl guru Tal?

cheers

Ha!

I'm afraid you may have to manage without Sequin Man tonight, I gather he has a heavy week ahead at work.

Frilly Blouse Bloke will be here though, & maybe even Eye-Liner Adz.

[tikay]

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers

Monday night football sees the improving Texans travel to the frustratingly inconsistent Steelers as 3 point underdogs.  Houston’s defense is legitimately good, led by the best defender in the league JJ Watt who will be a huge challenge for the Pittsburgh offensive line here

Houston’s offense lacks a quarterback, one of the few pieces they need to add to look like a play-off team but in Arian Foster and the running game they have a very effective way to control the clock and score points. I have more confidence in them as a team than the Steelers, who have talent in players like Antonio Brown and Le’veon Bell but rarely perform to their potential, either in coaching or strategy


Possibilities for the talarishiguru to ponder might include

Houston +3

You can get nearly 6/4 outright too

Arian Foster overs 90.5 though probably not as attractive as

Roethlisberger passing yard unders 265

He's gone under this 3 out of the 4 times he's played a decent defense this season (@Bal, @Cleve, @Car)

the key to the game will be the Pitt OL v Watt and the Houston front 7

Can you get Fred on please Mr Frilly Blouse?

[TightEnd]

will do in a bit

congratulations on your award (ref: Wikipedia)

[tikay]

will do in a bit

congratulations on your award (ref: Wikipedia)

The Golf Greenkeepers Association?

Hmm, at least we know who the mystery "Edit" man is now.....

[Chompy]

Hahaha! Way to funny that, esp the $65,000 train set.

[Omm]

Brilliant, absolutely brilliant.

[TightEnd]

The workings behind the Ben Roethlisberger unders

We have a 149 game sample size for Ben's career during which he has averaged 239.6 yards a game

If we remove his first two seasons we get to 250 yards a game

http://www.nfl.com/player/benroethlisberger/2506109/careerstats


this year he has one reliable receiving deep threat, Antonio Brown, after the departure of Sanders to Denver

the team should be a run first blue collar team with Le'veon Bell at running back

but there are definitely tensions in the locker room here between Ben and OC Todd Haley


Unfortunately (as I was quite bullish on them executing a Dallas type game plan before the season started) they don't really mesh on offense

Ben's passing stats for this season are

1593 yards in six games

splits

365 v Cleveland

217 @ Baltimore

196 @ Carolina

314 v Buccs

273 @ Jacks

228 @ Cleve

The very decent defenses here are Baltimore and Carolina (pre-injuries).

 
Turning to Houston, they are strong up front, and pressure the QB

They are weaker in the secondary, and if the front seven don't get pressure can be beaten

The Splits for the Houston defense against the pass this season

http://www.nfl.com/teams/houstontexans/schedule?team=HOU

267 v Wash

263 v Oak

234 v NYG

225 v Buff

324  v Dall

370 v Indy

Pitt is nothing like as prolific as Luck and Indy, or even Romo and Dallas. Conversely the Buff game was the one that led to the benching of EJ Manuel so we can see why that would be a low figure which we cannot extrapolate


Ladbrokes are the highest quote at +/- 265.5 yards. This happens to be bang on the six game average, which may be a deliberate spread quote but probably isn't reflective of what a "true" average is for this passing offense against a good defense

It may not also reflect the type of game this could be, where the Texans run the ball a lot with a premium running back, and don't typically go out to big leads, the type of which would lead to the nopposing quarterback flinging it everywhere

the longer they stuick with the run, the lower the passing totals


Points spread for the game is 44.5, a low-ish total. This would cross-reference through to lower passing yards


We are beginning to be restricted on player props at Ladbrokes, who tend to have the most competitive lines.

We were again

    
Good Luck Tony!
Event Information:    Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers - Player Props
NFL Player Props
2014-10-21 01:30:00
Market:    Passing Yards - B Roethlisberger
Selection:    Under @ 10/11
Handicap:    +265.5
   
Receipt No.:    O/142640973/0000758
Placed at:    14:54 20/10/2014
Bet Type:    Single
Stake Per Line:    £27.50
Number of lines:    1
Stake:    £27.50
Tax:    £0.00
Tax Rate:    0.00%
Total Paid:    £27.50
   
   
   £52.50

[TightEnd]

the world series bets

this may be £25 to get 7 reports, and i don't like funking against the Royals but there you go

£3.50 a write up then.

22 Oct 2014 - World Series 2014 - Outright - Outright

San Francisco Giants @ EVS

Stake : £25.00
Estimated Returns : £
50.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001114/F

 World Series 7 Games (Series Total Games - Outright) Odds: 2/1 Stake: 15.00 Possible Return:  45.00

[TightEnd]

Meanwhile Lee "Incomprehensible" Clark has left Birmingham

am hoping Tairishiguru has the inside line for the Brummie gig...

Owen "ubiquitous" Coyle and Gary "next big thing" Rowett leading the next manager market

 World Series 7 Games (Series Total Games - Outright) Odds: 2/1 Stake: 15.00 Possible Return:  45.00

[DungBeetle]

Troy Deeney is back from injury now getting a run out as sub on Saturday - looks big at 50-1 with Victor to be top scorer.  He's on 3, Assombo on 9, Martin on 8.  The each way at 1/4 for top 4 places looks a decent runner.  Will always play as captain, takes pens, rarely injured and in a team which should score a bundle of goals.  Has scored 20+ in both the last two seasons,

Think we should have a small each way dabble.  £10 ew or something.  Unless he gets injured again, I think it's a good chance he finishes in the top 4.  33-1 and shorter elsewhere.
 

More reasons to follow Watford (if you had told me that a year and a half ago...)

He signed a new contract did he? so only small January window risk?

 Top Goalscorer - 2014/15 Troy Deeney (EW) (Outright - Outright) Odds: 50/1 Stake: 20.00 Possible Return:  645.00

e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4

Hi Tighty - yes new contract signed so he would only be sold if Watford are off the pace at christmas and someone offers silly money, so I view it as almost a related contingency (is that the terminology?) as in if Watford aren't banging them in then the bet is likely lost in any case.  I think this is why the price is too high as the bookies have over-estimated the chance of him leaving.

[horseplayer]

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