Tips for Tikay

[Marky147]

Given everything you've said there, it does look pretty tasty.

[arbboy]

Would you be as keen to back them at 4/7 if the game was at Chelski?  Same bet effectively.

[TightEnd]

Would you be as keen to back them at 4/7 if the game was at Chelski?  Same bet effectively.

no.

i might suggest laying psg at 2.8 tonight to have the draw onside.....

[swinebag22]

Would you be as keen to back them at 4/7 if the game was at Chelski?  Same bet effectively.

Seen a few of these posts now. Statistically, what is the %age difference between home and away. I thought it was about 20%. This would assume that it is 30%.

[arbboy]

Would you be as keen to back them at 4/7 if the game was at Chelski?  Same bet effectively.

Seen a few of these posts now. Statistically, what is the %age difference between home and away. I thought it was about 20%. This would assume that it is 30%.

It's probably closer to 8/13-4/6 now as PSG are a decent fav in the markets now having been a small dog early.  You simply take the advantage of playing at home in the competition in question (CL here obv which is one of the biggest home advantages in European football) at around half a goal then double it for home advantage switching from one team to another.  So in this case let's assume its a flip as draw no bet in tonight's game at PSG so chelski would be roughly a 1 goal fav at home (maybe slightly more in a 2nd leg game where the goal expectation will be a fair bit higher than tonight).  A 1 goal fav is roughly a 4/6-8/13 shot in the fixed odds 3 way markets.

Or the two teams on a neutral ground would make Chelski roughly 1/2 a goal superior to PSG.  The 15/8 at spreadex looks a decent price PSG tonight.

[hector62]

Troicki is through after beating Robert     6 - 7     7 - 5      6 - 1

[Marky147]

Would you be as keen to back them at 4/7 if the game was at Chelski?  Same bet effectively.

Weird how the mind works, because I prob wouldn't back them at 4/7, even though I know you're right.


That said, I would probably throw them in a big old cornetto job, and then cash out before the last leg

[maldini32]

I actually think PSG are too big. Interesting.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £448.76

Outstanding Bets £3606.97

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=19

No bets completed yesterday

At Delray Beach in Florida Troicki beats Roberts in 3 sets in his first round match. Now has a tough match against Tomic in the second round

In his quarter Matosevic beat number two seed Isner, so the draw has begun to open up already



In domestic football the Peterborough united rollercoaster took a lurch down, beaten 2-0 at Bristol City

At least Peterborough are only a point above the bottom half now

Meanwhile Doncaster beat Crewe 2-1

Doncaster now 4 points ahead of Peterborough, and into the play-off spots. A relegation bet there is on its last legs

meanwhile the NBA season resumes soon after the all star break

Top 5 teams by money bet to win the NBA title according toWilliamHillUS are:

1. Warriors 2. Spurs 3. Cavs 4. Bulls 5. Thunder

Rajan Rondo is due to resume action after his injury on Thursday

we need him to pick up his assist form, which has waned dramtically since his trade to the Mavs

[arbboy]

Rondo bet is as good as dead.  He would have to average at least 12.5 assists a game for the remaining 25 games (assuming he plays them all - the more games he misses the bigger the average per game he will need to catch the top 3) to stand a chance of catching the front 3 assuming they remain constant.  Dallas remaining 25 games is also the lowest left of any team in the NBA which makes him catching his rivals even harder than it already is.

To say i am gutted about this bet (finishing 4th is literally the biggest tilt ever) is an understatement.  I have probably had my biggest ever ew bet on this.

[TightEnd]

Premier league darts tomorrow

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/premier-league

six matches, four of which are best priced 4/1 or near it for the draw

any strong thoughts welcome

Football

Champions league and football league tonight, Europa League tomorrow

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-coupons/major-leagues-cups

anything stand out?

Cricket

there are some big CWC ties over the enxt few days

NZ v England

India v South Africa

Pakistan v West Indies

Golf

The European tour is in india

7/1 the field, 22/1 bar the top 3.. wide open for a banzai...

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/hero-indian-open

the USPGA is in California

12/1 the field, 28/1 bar the top 4....wide open for a

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/northern-trust-open


super league matches, NCAA basketball (Duke play tomorrow), tennis matches, welsh open snooker, the general election......

i might even consider the Lucy Beale killer market, after all 80 names have been backed in that one


give me your thoughts please

[arbboy]

barney draw at 4/1 in darts is a £50 no brainer bet if you can get someone to get you on at paddy.  Rest of the draws make little appeal.  Willbe laying Lewis at 1/2 as well v Kim.

[Marky147]

barney draw at 4/1 in darts is a £50 no brainer bet if you can get someone to get you on at paddy.  Rest of the draws make little appeal.  Willbe laying Lewis at 1/2 as well v Kim.

I can do this if you want, Tighty?

Darts is one of the few things I can bet with Padraig.

[TightEnd]

barney draw at 4/1 in darts is a £50 no brainer bet if you can get someone to get you on at paddy.  Rest of the draws make little appeal.  Willbe laying Lewis at 1/2 as well v Kim.

I can do this if you want, Tighty?

Darts is one of the few things I can bet with Padraig.

yes thanks

[Marky147]

barney draw at 4/1 in darts is a £50 no brainer bet if you can get someone to get you on at paddy.  Rest of the draws make little appeal.  Willbe laying Lewis at 1/2 as well v Kim.

I can do this if you want, Tighty?

Darts is one of the few things I can bet with Padraig.

yes thanks

Done.

£50 @ 4/1 PP

Wright/Barney - Draw