Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

..& this from Betfair.


Hi Tony,

Boom! We have just dropped some free spins into your account.

Hit the slots in our Arcade now and revel in free spins.

Be a winner, Tony.

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Ian
Betfair Arcade Team

tikay, your mobile is about to receive an activation code

pass it on please

Be a winner, Tony

Just received the text - will PM you the activation code thing.

so we have a £5 free bonus, which we only have to play through 40 times to clear. Perhaps not for us then

the free spins, which were seperate, produced....nothing

i think we need a free spins consultant on board. someone experienced, and lucky

 

[TightEnd]

working through last night's stuff

Blackpool v Leeds United Leeds United (Match Betting - 90 Mins) Odds: 21/20 Stake: 50.00 Possible Return:  102.50

i suppose an away side at 21/20 in the championship would normally get the "would you back them if they were 1/4 at home" treatment, but hopefully Blackpool away is the exception

[TightEnd]

Bet receipt
Your selections

    Event: Stoke City vs Crystal Palace
    Time: 21-03-2015 15:00
    BS_MARKET: 90 Minutes
    Selection: Stoke City @ 6/5

Your Bets

    Win
    Single:
    Stoke City
    1 line at £20.00 per line
    Total stake for this bet: £20.00
    Potential Return: £44.00
    No: O/0849138/0000019

    Total stake:£20.00
    Free bets/vouchers:£0.00
    Total cost:£20.00

some mixed views on this just in the last hour

i'd placed the bet before this morning's mixed views went up...

[arbboy]

working through last night's stuff

Blackpool v Leeds United Leeds United (Match Betting - 90 Mins) Odds: 21/20 Stake: 50.00 Possible Return:  102.50

i suppose an away side at 21/20 in the championship would normally get the "would you back them if they were 1/4 at home" treatment, but hopefully Blackpool away is the exception

They wouldn't be 1/4 closer to 2/5 4/11 ish.  It is a freaky type of situation Blackpool where it probably is worth smashed into the Arron style bets as if they get beat they will probably have totally downed tools.  The gaffer didn't sound happy in midweek but it is very hard to know whether he can get a reaction out of the players as so few of them will probably be there next season.

[TightEnd]

Get ready for the groans......
 

Looking at the Grand National market, I think we should have an early speculative bet on the best horse in the world(cough)

A week before the Gold Cup my concerns were raised by Sherwood(the trainer) announcing that Trevor Hemmings(the owner) was keen to run in the Grand National. Sherwood obviously stated it was Gold Cup, full steam ahead.

Hemmings has a rich history with the National and so far had a couple of winners, in Ballabriggs and Hedgehunter(who also ran in the Gold Cup as a GN warm up, if I recall correctly), so you could understand why his attentions were split.

Many Clouds is 33-1 NRNB 1,2,3,4,5 with Betty Sportsbook, and if he does go, he just won't be that price. Even if he isn't strongly fancied he wont go off worse than 16-1.

He stays, he jumps, and the trend is towards the better horses winning the National, and even putting my blind love of the horse aside, this looks a good value bet, and come the day, if he runs you have trading options. If he doesn't, money back!!

He is currently 75-1 on the exchanges, so I suspect they are still waiting to see how he comes out of the Gold Cup exertions.

I understand we may miss out on a place when we get 1-6 on the day, but I think beating the price will comfortably offset that.

A simple £10 ew should get the ball rolling.

FWIW I really like the look of Merry Kings profile, but with all the Jonjo money/support likely to be for Shutthefrontdoor and AP, we can leave him till later!

a small restriction here


17:15 Aint 11th Apr

£9.10
33/1
£393.48
Many Clouds
Grand National 2015 NRNB
EW
EW Terms: 1/4 Odds | 5 Places


Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000129


please advise on trading etc as the race approaches

unrelated to this bet..i thought on the day the ground had come right for many clouds, but it ran flat/no sort of race?

what were your thoughts on it in the GC?

[Junior Senior]

I see stoke are > evens (again) to win at home against a team that are worse than them. This time against Palace. I am struggling to see what the bookies know differently that makes them that price.

always fearful of putting anything prem related up but surely this is a bet and possibly a big one too.

any comments??

Don't ask questions.  Gift horses and mouths spring to mind.  Are they bigger than 6/5 now then?  They were 6/5 earlier.

6/5 with Puppy power. Fred can get on at 23/20 with Billys. I have read that 6/5 is the standard price for a home team when the teams are evenly matched, so I reckon 23/20 is still value by a long way here. I'm still a bit reluctant to put this up as a recommend; I do not have the stats to hand that the bookies have, but Stoke have been formidable at home. Maybe they are having a ManU type season where their stats do not reflect their results so they are continually being overpriced.

Anyway I've only had £20 in the end and recommend the same for Fred

Palace are reborn under pardew. They have goals in them and the stoke defence hasnt been good this season, shawcross may be back though but wollschied is out. 6/5 about right IMO.

Whilst i agree Palace are smoking right now that recency bias is what is probably creating this price on Stoke as Stoke quietly go about their business as usual.  I don't buy the Stoke defence argument at all.  Stoke have the 7th lowest goals conceded total in the EPL this season even though they have had huge long term disruption of their settled back four for the vast majority of the season in comparison to previous seasons where the keeper and back 4 were virtually unchanged for the entire season (esp the two centre halves - Huth and Shawcross)

Stoke dont get beat by many goals in agame but they have so few clean sheets this season and palace score goals.
The defence will change again this week. huth has moved on to leicester, wollscheid is injured. Shawcross only back (maybe) after long lay off and begovic not the keeper he was a couple of seasons ago.

Stoke have struggled to score this season in any great amounts and the palace defence is sured up now.

I expect it to be tight and it could go either way. I wouldnt be surprised to see stoke win but 6/5 got to be about bang on.

1-1 draw. :-)

[scotty2hatty]

Why isn't Begovic the keeper he was?

[horseplayer]

working through last night's stuff

Blackpool v Leeds United Leeds United (Match Betting - 90 Mins) Odds: 21/20 Stake: 50.00 Possible Return:  102.50

i suppose an away side at 21/20 in the championship would normally get the "would you back them if they were 1/4 at home" treatment, but hopefully Blackpool away is the exception

They wouldn't be 1/4 closer to 2/5 4/11 ish.  It is a freaky type of situation Blackpool where it probably is worth smashed into the Arron style bets as if they get beat they will probably have totally downed tools.  The gaffer didn't sound happy in midweek but it is very hard to know whether he can get a reaction out of the players as so few of them will probably be there next season.

Especially when the gaffer is Lee Clark who has never got a reaction any were out of any players

[Nico29]

Quite a milestone approaches for Fred.


Views = 1,997,253

Anyone care to guess when the 2 milly will be reached?

This Sunday 314am.

[BigAdz]

Get ready for the groans......
 

Looking at the Grand National market, I think we should have an early speculative bet on the best horse in the world(cough)

A week before the Gold Cup my concerns were raised by Sherwood(the trainer) announcing that Trevor Hemmings(the owner) was keen to run in the Grand National. Sherwood obviously stated it was Gold Cup, full steam ahead.

Hemmings has a rich history with the National and so far had a couple of winners, in Ballabriggs and Hedgehunter(who also ran in the Gold Cup as a GN warm up, if I recall correctly), so you could understand why his attentions were split.

Many Clouds is 33-1 NRNB 1,2,3,4,5 with Betty Sportsbook, and if he does go, he just won't be that price. Even if he isn't strongly fancied he wont go off worse than 16-1.

He stays, he jumps, and the trend is towards the better horses winning the National, and even putting my blind love of the horse aside, this looks a good value bet, and come the day, if he runs you have trading options. If he doesn't, money back!!

He is currently 75-1 on the exchanges, so I suspect they are still waiting to see how he comes out of the Gold Cup exertions.

I understand we may miss out on a place when we get 1-6 on the day, but I think beating the price will comfortably offset that.

A simple £10 ew should get the ball rolling.

FWIW I really like the look of Merry Kings profile, but with all the Jonjo money/support likely to be for Shutthefrontdoor and AP, we can leave him till later!

a small restriction here


17:15 Aint 11th Apr

£9.10
33/1
£393.48
Many Clouds
Grand National 2015 NRNB
EW
EW Terms: 1/4 Odds | 5 Places


Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000129


please advise on trading etc as the race approaches

unrelated to this bet..i thought on the day the ground had come right for many clouds, but it ran flat/no sort of race?

what were your thoughts on it in the GC?

In all honesty, I don't think he is as good as the leading bunch, proximity to Smad Place reads like he hasn't progressed again. However, I was told by friend close to the stable, Aspell had instructions to stay on the inside as long as possible, as MC has a tendancy to jump a touch right as he gets tired. He didn't. And I gather the boss wasn't overly impressed.

He will remain a firm favourite and I'm sure he has other big days ahead.

[arbboy]

Why isn't Begovic the keeper he was?

He still is as good as ever.  It is a lot tougher to look as good as he has in the past when he hasn't had a settled back four all season.  I would say he is the main reason Stoke are in 8th in the league holding the injury ridden defence together all season as we are barely scoring any more goals than we did under Pulis although all the possession stats are up the bottom line is we ain't scoring any more goals at the business end.

[scotty2hatty]

Why isn't Begovic the keeper he was?

He still is as good as ever.  It is a lot tougher to look as good as he has in the past when he hasn't had a settled back four all season.  I would say he is the main reason Stoke are in 8th in the league holding the injury ridden defence together all season as we are barely scoring any more goals than we did under Pulis although all the possession stats are up the bottom line is we ain't scoring any more goals at the business end.

Yeah, I agree. Seemed like a searching original statement.

[McGlashan]

Totes 1/2 on Barcelona to qualify vs PSG is a fill your boots job http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/psg-v-barcelona/to-qualify

Barca shouldn't be any longer than they were against City (1/3) and other firms have opened in the 1/4 to 1/3 range.

[DungBeetle]

Should Watford be odds against at home to Ipswich tomorrow?

Last 13 games

Watford W10 D1 L2
Ipswich W5 L6

Ipswich lost last 3 away.  Last 9 meetings at vicarage road Watford won 8, Ipswich won 1.

Does this match really end up in anything other than a home win more than half of the time?  What odds did Boro go off at home to Ipswich recently?

 

[Junior Senior]

Why isn't Begovic the keeper he was?

His form has been in and out, as has the stoke defence in terms of clean sheets. It may be he has suffered from having a changing defence in front of him. also.  I have watched stoke 2-3 times on tv this season and he has looked less commanding than before and he made a couple of mistakes a couple of weeks ago i dont think he would make previously. He also seems to struggle to get down to shots as well as before. He set high standards in previous seasons and there was talk of a move to arsenal or even manure at one stage. All of that suggests to me he isnt as good as what he was.