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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 16400224 times)
nuros
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« Reply #99075 on: April 14, 2015, 04:13:20 PM »

Been looking at the madrid derby tonight and Atletico's recent record in it is amazing. Think I'm gonna go for £50 on atletico +0AH (equivalent of draw no bet) at 41/40 on 364+1 (draw no bet is best priced evens on bf exchange), and gambool the in play £50 on a correct score prob either 1-0 1-1 or 2-2. Other opinions would be great!
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« Reply #99076 on: April 14, 2015, 04:20:00 PM »

one night to go of the NBA regular season



we have positions on Cleveland, Toronto and Chicago in the one conference, LA Clippers and Portland in the other

the cavs position is our best bet, we have £50 e/w at 7/2 and £50 win at 9/2

we missed SA Spurs at 7-1 ish a fortnight ago in a welter of recriminations and carping. They are now 4-1, 12 successive wins and the number 2 seeding later, third favourites

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/nba-championship/winner

i have never followed the nba until this season. i am assuming top seed plays lowest seed all the way through to find a conference winner, and they play off


our book as follows

williamhill   may-2015   basketball   nba championship   cavaliers   9/2   50
coral   may-2015   basketball   NBA Championship   Cavaliers   7/2   100   £50 e/w 1/2 1,2
ladbrokes   may-2015   basketball   NBA Championship   Chicago Bulls   8/1   40   £20 e/w 1/2 1,2
ladbrokes   may-2015   basketball   NBA Championship   LA Clippers   12/1   40   £20 e/w 1/2 1,2
coral   may-2015   basketball   NBA Championship   Toronto Raptors   66/1   20   £10 e/w 1/2 1,2
sportingbet   may-2015   basketball   2014/15 NBA Championship - Outright Winner    portland trailblazers   50/1   10

the wiggins rookie of the year decision is a few weeks away, worth £500+ if he wins it

bwin   may-2015   basketball   nba rookie of the year   wiggins   7.0   80
bwin   may-2015   basketball   NBA Rookie of the year wiggins   7.0   20
williamhill may-2015 basketball NBA - Rookie of the Year 2014/15   Nerlens Noel 10/1   40
betfair   may-2015   basketball   NBA Rookie of the year   Wiggins LAY   1.2   20   £100 Lay

san antonio tomorrow night is a £300 thread swing win/lose that match to win/lose the division

ladbrokes   may-2015   basketball   NBA Southwest division   San Antonio Spurs   5/2   60
bwin   may-2015   basketball    NBA - Southwest Division 2014/15    San Antonio Spurs 1.83 60

rondo and davies will be settled as losers for £230 on thursday
« Last Edit: April 14, 2015, 04:23:29 PM by TightEnd » Logged

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« Reply #99077 on: April 14, 2015, 04:31:21 PM »

One more - Bournemouth have been awarded 15 penalties in 42 games this season due to their fast running style and (cough) Wilson's ability to tumble theatrically.

Tonight they play Reading who will likely field the reserves as they have FA Cup semi final at weekend.

Ref has given 2 Bournemouth penalties in the 2 games he has reffed involved the Cherries.

Paddy Power at 11/2 for Bournemouth to score a penalty tonight.   Should be about 5/2 imo (after accounting for a couple of misses).  Bit speculative so maybe a tenner.

I'd also recommend we look out for this market in all of the Cherries last 4 games.
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« Reply #99078 on: April 14, 2015, 04:34:07 PM »

One more - Bournemouth have been awarded 15 penalties in 42 games this season due to their fast running style and (cough) Wilson's ability to tumble theatrically.

Tonight they play Reading who will likely field the reserves as they have FA Cup semi final at weekend.

Ref has given 2 Bournemouth penalties in the 2 games he has reffed involved the Cherries.

Paddy Power at 11/2 for Bournemouth to score a penalty tonight.   Should be about 5/2 imo (after accounting for a couple of misses).  Bit speculative so maybe a tenner.

I'd also recommend we look out for this market in all of the Cherries last 4 games.

thanks, we can't do PP but plenty will be able to if they wish, buit like Newcastle nil last night which came in
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« Reply #99079 on: April 14, 2015, 04:37:11 PM »

one night to go of the NBA regular season



we have positions on Cleveland, Toronto and Chicago in the one conference, LA Clippers and Portland in the other

the cavs position is our best bet, we have £50 e/w at 7/2 and £50 win at 9/2

we missed SA Spurs at 7-1 ish a fortnight ago in a welter of recriminations and carping. They are now 4-1, 12 successive wins and the number 2 seeding later, third favourites

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/nba-championship/winner

i have never followed the nba until this season. i am assuming top seed plays lowest seed all the way through to find a conference winner, and they play off


our book as follows

williamhill   may-2015   basketball   nba championship   cavaliers   9/2   50
coral   may-2015   basketball   NBA Championship   Cavaliers   7/2   100   £50 e/w 1/2 1,2
ladbrokes   may-2015   basketball   NBA Championship   Chicago Bulls   8/1   40   £20 e/w 1/2 1,2
ladbrokes   may-2015   basketball   NBA Championship   LA Clippers   12/1   40   £20 e/w 1/2 1,2
coral   may-2015   basketball   NBA Championship   Toronto Raptors   66/1   20   £10 e/w 1/2 1,2
sportingbet   may-2015   basketball   2014/15 NBA Championship - Outright Winner    portland trailblazers   50/1   10

the wiggins rookie of the year decision is a few weeks away, worth £500+ if he wins it

bwin   may-2015   basketball   nba rookie of the year   wiggins   7.0   80
bwin   may-2015   basketball   NBA Rookie of the year wiggins   7.0   20
williamhill may-2015 basketball NBA - Rookie of the Year 2014/15   Nerlens Noel 10/1   40
betfair   may-2015   basketball   NBA Rookie of the year   Wiggins LAY   1.2   20   £100 Lay

san antonio tomorrow night is a £300 thread swing win/lose that match to win/lose the division

ladbrokes   may-2015   basketball   NBA Southwest division   San Antonio Spurs   5/2   60
bwin   may-2015   basketball    NBA - Southwest Division 2014/15    San Antonio Spurs 1.83 60

rondo and davies will be settled as losers for £230 on thursday

Two nights to go on the NBA.  Finishes tomorrow night.  NBA play offs have a fixed bracket and don't adjust to 'shocks' in the prior round so top seed left doesn't always play bottom seed left like in the NFL and MLB.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_playoffs

The Spurs bet is a straight shoot out with Houston for the Division.  Memphis can't win due to 3 way tie breaker rules would give the Spurs the division on combined season record v the 3 teams even if Memphis win last game and Spurs/Houston both lose (roughly a 33/1 poke).

Therefore if you choose to hedge by laying Spurs (should be around a 1/3 poke for their final game) for their last game you have a 3% chance of copping both ways on the hedge and still winning the original bet if the above happens.  

Finishing 2nd in the West (which the spurs will do if they win division) is the dream ticket for a 1st round match up against the relatively out of form Mavs since the Rondo trade blow the Mavs apart chemistry wise.  It also means they will avoid GS until the conference finals and have home court advantage in the first two rounds of the play offs.

Wiggins looks weighed in barring a miracle vote for one of the rags behind him.  None of which have done enough imo over the whole season to justify winning the vote and a recent poll of 15% of the writers who will vote for the award in a couple of weeks stated over 75% of them had Wiggins as a lock for the award.  Nothing has really changed since then.

http://www.cheatsheet.com/sports/the-top-5-candidates-for-2015-nba-rookie-of-the-year.html/?a=viewall

http://www.nba.com/2015/news/features/david_aldridge/04/13/morning-tip-david-aldridge-award-picks-for-mvp-most-improved-rookie-of-year-nerlens-noel-deveolpment-philadelphia-76ers-qa-with-kyle-korver/

« Last Edit: April 14, 2015, 04:41:23 PM by arbboy » Logged
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« Reply #99080 on: April 14, 2015, 04:39:56 PM »

thanks

this is in super slow mo from last night, from @nba

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« Reply #99081 on: April 14, 2015, 04:46:25 PM »

"Before Dallas native Jordan Spieth was on The Late Show with David Letterman and breaking records at The Masters, he was a junior at Jesuit High School.

Even at the time, in 2009, Spieth was still an extremely talented golfer. But even so, he was humble enough to write this letter to the family who funded the scholarship that helped pay for his tuition."

 Click to see full-size image.


the story of his special needs sister, and Jordan's relationship with her is also very nice as well

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/golf/mastersaugusta/11534207/Jordan-Spieth-is-kept-grounded-by-the-struggles-of-his-younger-sister.html
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« Reply #99082 on: April 14, 2015, 05:27:33 PM »

One more - Bournemouth have been awarded 15 penalties in 42 games this season due to their fast running style and (cough) Wilson's ability to tumble theatrically.

Tonight they play Reading who will likely field the reserves as they have FA Cup semi final at weekend.

Ref has given 2 Bournemouth penalties in the 2 games he has reffed involved the Cherries.

Paddy Power at 11/2 for Bournemouth to score a penalty tonight.   Should be about 5/2 imo (after accounting for a couple of misses).  Bit speculative so maybe a tenner.

I'd also recommend we look out for this market in all of the Cherries last 4 games.

Good analysis (apart from the cough  Smiley )

Difficult to know if " trying to impress" reserves are going to be better than "save myself" first teamers.
Fingers crossed for a few tonight ...I've backed B'mouth -1 on the handicap.
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tikay
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« Reply #99083 on: April 14, 2015, 05:30:07 PM »

one night to go of the NBA regular season



we have positions on Cleveland, Toronto and Chicago in the one conference, LA Clippers and Portland in the other

the cavs position is our best bet, we have £50 e/w at 7/2 and £50 win at 9/2

we missed SA Spurs at 7-1 ish a fortnight ago in a welter of recriminations and carping. They are now 4-1, 12 successive wins and the number 2 seeding later, third favourites

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/nba-championship/winner

i have never followed the nba until this season. i am assuming top seed plays lowest seed all the way through to find a conference winner, and they play off


our book as follows

williamhill   may-2015   basketball   nba championship   cavaliers   9/2   50
coral   may-2015   basketball   NBA Championship   Cavaliers   7/2   100   £50 e/w 1/2 1,2
ladbrokes   may-2015   basketball   NBA Championship   Chicago Bulls   8/1   40   £20 e/w 1/2 1,2
ladbrokes   may-2015   basketball   NBA Championship   LA Clippers   12/1   40   £20 e/w 1/2 1,2
coral   may-2015   basketball   NBA Championship   Toronto Raptors   66/1   20   £10 e/w 1/2 1,2
sportingbet   may-2015   basketball   2014/15 NBA Championship - Outright Winner    portland trailblazers   50/1   10

the wiggins rookie of the year decision is a few weeks away, worth £500+ if he wins it

bwin   may-2015   basketball   nba rookie of the year   wiggins   7.0   80
bwin   may-2015   basketball   NBA Rookie of the year wiggins   7.0   20
williamhill may-2015 basketball NBA - Rookie of the Year 2014/15   Nerlens Noel 10/1   40
betfair   may-2015   basketball   NBA Rookie of the year   Wiggins LAY   1.2   20   £100 Lay

san antonio tomorrow night is a £300 thread swing win/lose that match to win/lose the division

ladbrokes   may-2015   basketball   NBA Southwest division   San Antonio Spurs   5/2   60
bwin   may-2015   basketball    NBA - Southwest Division 2014/15    San Antonio Spurs 1.83 60

rondo and davies will be settled as losers for £230 on thursday

Two nights to go on the NBA.  Finishes tomorrow night.  NBA play offs have a fixed bracket and don't adjust to 'shocks' in the prior round so top seed left doesn't always play bottom seed left like in the NFL and MLB.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_playoffs

The Spurs bet is a straight shoot out with Houston for the Division.  Memphis can't win due to 3 way tie breaker rules would give the Spurs the division on combined season record v the 3 teams even if Memphis win last game and Spurs/Houston both lose (roughly a 33/1 poke).

Therefore if you choose to hedge by laying Spurs (should be around a 1/3 poke for their final game) for their last game you have a 3% chance of copping both ways on the hedge and still winning the original bet if the above happens.  

Finishing 2nd in the West (which the spurs will do if they win division) is the dream ticket for a 1st round match up against the relatively out of form Mavs since the Rondo trade blow the Mavs apart chemistry wise.  It also means they will avoid GS until the conference finals and have home court advantage in the first two rounds of the play offs.

Wiggins looks weighed in barring a miracle vote for one of the rags behind him.  None of which have done enough imo over the whole season to justify winning the vote and a recent poll of 15% of the writers who will vote for the award in a couple of weeks stated over 75% of them had Wiggins as a lock for the award.  Nothing has really changed since then.

http://www.cheatsheet.com/sports/the-top-5-candidates-for-2015-nba-rookie-of-the-year.html/?a=viewall

http://www.nba.com/2015/news/features/david_aldridge/04/13/morning-tip-david-aldridge-award-picks-for-mvp-most-improved-rookie-of-year-nerlens-noel-deveolpment-philadelphia-76ers-qa-with-kyle-korver/



Thanks Argue.

Sorry to be a dumbass, but which of those bets, if any, conclude, one way or another, tomorrow, & which ones go through to the Finals thing in June?

Ate they all carrying through (or not) to June, or can we have some actual winners tomorrow, if so, who?
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« Reply #99084 on: April 14, 2015, 05:44:45 PM »

San Antonio Spurs, Rondo and Anthony Davis MVP conclude tomorrow

Rondo and Davis will be -£230

Spurs will be +£200 or -£120

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« Reply #99085 on: April 14, 2015, 05:52:33 PM »

Rondo and Davis are both losers.  MVP won't be announced tomorrow but he is a loser effectively.  Not sure on the exact timing for the announcement of the end of season awards for the rookie of the year.  Will be announced within 2 weeks of the regular season ending tomorrow night.

All the outright bets on nba/conferences roll forward to the play offs which begin on Saturday and end mid June.
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tikay
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« Reply #99086 on: April 14, 2015, 05:53:11 PM »

San Antonio Spurs, Rondo and Anthony Davis MVP conclude tomorrow

Rondo and Davis will be -£230

Spurs will be +£200 or -£120



Thanks - looks like we might have an expensive day if Spurs don't get home then, but the June stuff looks better, right?
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« Reply #99087 on: April 14, 2015, 05:54:02 PM »

Rondo and Davis are both losers.  MVP won't be announced tomorrow but he is a loser effectively.  Not sure on the exact timing for the announcement of the end of season awards for the rookie of the year.  Will be announced within 2 weeks of the regular season ending tomorrow night.

All the outright bets on nba/conferences roll forward to the play offs which begin on Saturday and end mid June.


Ahh, posts crossed, thanks.
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« Reply #99088 on: April 14, 2015, 05:58:24 PM »

San Antonio Spurs, Rondo and Anthony Davis MVP conclude tomorrow

Rondo and Davis will be -£230

Spurs will be +£200 or -£120



Thanks - looks like we might have an expensive day if Spurs don't get home then, but the June stuff looks better, right?

Yes, its just timing issues. Wiggins should get home for a £500 profit and over the season the ante-post book will be either nicely up or up a lot (four figures) depending on whether we can get the Cavs home in the championship for example
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« Reply #99089 on: April 14, 2015, 06:43:09 PM »

Help an ice cream plz, What's the reason for the difference in price on 364 if Atletico DNB and Atletico 0.0 is the same bet ?
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