Tips for Tikay

[Nico29]

Help an ice cream plz, What's the reason for the difference in price on 364 if Atletico DNB and Atletico 0.0 is the same bet ?

No difference it's same bet under different guise. Many companies do this, diff margins for diff markets.

So even though this is exactly the same bet it's a better price within the firm for no other reason than because they choose to do it.

[tikay]

Birmingham currently 1 - 0 down.

[Marky147]

Makes you wonder...

http://www.theguardian.com/football/2015/apr/14/blackpool-joe-lewis-autographed-shirt-reading


Such a shame, as it was great when they made it up to the Prem, and the fans have had to watch the Owner siphon money out since.

[Peter-27]

I was trying a few days ago to put into words why the Rosberg bet was in trouble

fortunately james allen's article today does it

http://www.jamesallenonf1.com/2015/04/insight-why-vettel-and-ferrari-were-a-menace-to-rosberg-in-china-but-not-for-the-reason-he-thought/?utm_content=buffer6d494&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

"Last year Mercedes had a significant pace advantage over its rivals, which meant that the team strategists could experiment with different strategies – more stops or different tyres – for their car running in second place to give him a chance to win the race. This happened at most venues and led to some great races, like Bahrain and Spain, as well as some later in the season like Austin and Brazil......

The problem for Rosberg is that there is not the scope for two widely differing strategies this year between the Mercedes drivers, because Vettel is close enough that if one of the strategies goes wrong, the team would not get a 1-2 finish, in fact it might even lose the race. It is one thing to switch one driver onto a different tyre for the second stint if you are racing yourselves with the third place car 8 or 10 seconds behind. But quite another if Vettel is sitting 1.6 seconds behind in third place at the end of the opening stint.

This puts more emphasis on qualifying and the start of the race, which is why Rosberg was so deflated after missing pole by 4/100ths of a second on Saturday and why Hamilton had his car pointed at an aggressive angle on the start line, aiming across at Rosberg to cut off any challenge into Turn 1."

--

As, mistakes or mechanical problems apart, Rosberg can't outqualify Hamilton too often or overtake him in the race on what has to be an identical strategy...he's unlikely to beat him over a season long contest

There's no denying anything you've said here - it's fact rather than an opinion, Hamilton does just have the edge over his team mate in terms of pace. However this: "mistakes or mechanical problems apart", is what gives Rosberg a shot at the title. It's 50/50 on who has more reliability issues during the season. If Hamilton has two more mechanical issues, that's (probably) 50 points up to Rosberg. We got 4/1 on this which is phenomenal 

What makes this even better is that Hamilton does have a history of having accidents as the pressure builds later on in the season if he's unhappy with life. We saw it in 2010 & 2012.

[Marky147]

Is it not possible he has matured, and is a completely different person to the one you're talking about from years ago?

Obviously 4/1 on him having more accidents is decent, when they're both driving the same motor

[T_Mar]

Loving the Tighty / Peter difference of opinion on this, great arguments from both ..  Better read than the daily rags

[arbboy]

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/nba-awards-ballot-part-1-in-praise-of-the-individual/

Another rookie of the year summary by a highly respected NBA writer in favour of Wiggins.

http://espn.go.com/blog/marc-stein/post/_/id/3708/rookie-of-the-year-nikola-mirotic

Another respected nba writer has him 2nd in his poll but he admits Wiggins will most likely win the award hard held.

[BigAdz]

Probably worth a little £5 ewe on Amidon in the 4.25 Cheltenham tomorrow.

20s with Sads.

[Marky147]

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/nba-awards-ballot-part-1-in-praise-of-the-individual/

Another rookie of the year summary by a highly respected NBA writer in favour of Wiggins.

http://espn.go.com/blog/marc-stein/post/_/id/3708/rookie-of-the-year-nikola-mirotic

Another respected nba writer has him 2nd in his poll but he admits Wiggins will most likely win the award hard held.

They know!

[Marky147]

Probably worth a little £5 ewe on Amidon in the 4.25 Cheltenham tomorrow.

20s with Sads.

Who doesn't love a 20/1 poke?

Cheers, Adz

[JohnCharver]

Probably worth a little £5 ewe on Amidon in the 4.25 Cheltenham tomorrow.

20s with Sads.

Who doesn't love a 20/1 poke?

Cheers, Adz

Ill not take the tap in and lower the tone.

Cheers adz, nice time to get off the mark

[Doobs]

I was trying a few days ago to put into words why the Rosberg bet was in trouble

fortunately james allen's article today does it

http://www.jamesallenonf1.com/2015/04/insight-why-vettel-and-ferrari-were-a-menace-to-rosberg-in-china-but-not-for-the-reason-he-thought/?utm_content=buffer6d494&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

"Last year Mercedes had a significant pace advantage over its rivals, which meant that the team strategists could experiment with different strategies – more stops or different tyres – for their car running in second place to give him a chance to win the race. This happened at most venues and led to some great races, like Bahrain and Spain, as well as some later in the season like Austin and Brazil......

The problem for Rosberg is that there is not the scope for two widely differing strategies this year between the Mercedes drivers, because Vettel is close enough that if one of the strategies goes wrong, the team would not get a 1-2 finish, in fact it might even lose the race. It is one thing to switch one driver onto a different tyre for the second stint if you are racing yourselves with the third place car 8 or 10 seconds behind. But quite another if Vettel is sitting 1.6 seconds behind in third place at the end of the opening stint.

This puts more emphasis on qualifying and the start of the race, which is why Rosberg was so deflated after missing pole by 4/100ths of a second on Saturday and why Hamilton had his car pointed at an aggressive angle on the start line, aiming across at Rosberg to cut off any challenge into Turn 1."

--

As, mistakes or mechanical problems apart, Rosberg can't outqualify Hamilton too often or overtake him in the race on what has to be an identical strategy...he's unlikely to beat him over a season long contest

There's no denying anything you've said here - it's fact rather than an opinion, Hamilton does just have the edge over his team mate in terms of pace. However this: "mistakes or mechanical problems apart", is what gives Rosberg a shot at the title. It's 50/50 on who has more reliability issues during the season. If Hamilton has two more mechanical issues, that's (probably) 50 points up to Rosberg. We got 4/1 on this which is phenomenal 

What makes this even better is that Hamilton does have a history of having accidents as the pressure builds later on in the season if he's unhappy with life. We saw it in 2010 & 2012.

I don't think we did get 4/1, we got 3/1.  4 for a decimal odds from Betfair is the same as 3/1 old school.

Sometimes our bets will turn bad.  It is just bound to happen and you have to accept it and move on.  Now we can get 6/1 or 7.0 on Rosberg which is probably fair odds, because of the chances of mechanical issues etc.  I suspect 5/1 and a third the odds 1-2 is a better bet, I am not recommending it though.

[Doobs]

Projected handicap points in the premiership

1. Southampton 100.5
2.  Palace 96
3. Swnasea 96
4. West Ham 91
5. Chelsea 89
6. Stoke 87
...
10.  Liverpool 82

Last post for the Liverpool bet I think

Pardiola in to a best priced 7/2 2nd favourite for manager of the year. 

Click to see full-size image.

[arbboy]

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/total-seats-ukip-banded

What price should under 99.5 ukip seats be tighty realistically?  1/100 at lads?  What am i missing here?  This must be a piss take surely?  Must be the easiest 1% on your money you will ever make in 3 weeks tax free surely?

[tikay]

Thanks Doobs.

Projected handicap points in the premiership

1. Southampton 100.5
2.  Palace 96
3. Swnasea 96
4. West Ham 91
5. Chelsea 89
6. Stoke 87


We have a cracking sweat on that one now - £15 EW @ 16/1.

In Pardew we trust.