Tips for Tikay

[Junior Senior]

Birmingham Yardley

    EVS
    £41.81
    £83.62
    Liberal Democrat
    Birmingham Yardley - Winner

    Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000140

If anyone else has any suggested Constituency bets where we think we can perceive genuine value, please stick them up. A basket of 4 or 5 would do no harm.

Best regards,

Fred's Director of psephologyness

Are most firms singles only on these bets or do they offer unlimited multi's?  My local seat Stone is 1/100 to be tory.  More likely i die before the election than the tories lose this seat.  There must be another 20 or 30 seats we can combi together at 1/100 to get a bet around 1/3 which is virtually bomb proof if they allow big accas. 

Mansfield = Labour.
They could put a donkey up and it would win, in fact thats what theyve been doing for 60 years.

[DungBeetle]

Watford nearly butchered that.  Comfortable at 2-0 and then as soon as Forest get a red they get dominated!  Very strange.

[Karabiner]

Birmingham Yardley

    EVS
    £41.81
    £83.62
    Liberal Democrat
    Birmingham Yardley - Winner

    Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000140

If anyone else has any suggested Constituency bets where we think we can perceive genuine value, please stick them up. A basket of 4 or 5 would do no harm.

Best regards,

Fred's Director of psephologyness

Are most firms singles only on these bets or do they offer unlimited multi's?  My local seat Stone is 1/100 to be tory.  More likely i die before the election than the tories lose this seat.  There must be another 20 or 30 seats we can combi together at 1/100 to get a bet around 1/3 which is virtually bomb proof if they allow big accas. 

Mansfield = Labour.
They could put a donkey up and it would win, in fact thats what theyve been doing for 60 years.

It must be all of those Coxmoor blokes voting for them

[sonour]

Coral and PP very slow updating political markets.

Coral and WH don't have odds on shop screens so have to ring up which makes doing multiple shops slow at best and impossible at worst.

PP and Lads have odds in shop.

[Junior Senior]

Birmingham Yardley

    EVS
    £41.81
    £83.62
    Liberal Democrat
    Birmingham Yardley - Winner

    Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000140

If anyone else has any suggested Constituency bets where we think we can perceive genuine value, please stick them up. A basket of 4 or 5 would do no harm.

Best regards,

Fred's Director of psephologyness

Are most firms singles only on these bets or do they offer unlimited multi's?  My local seat Stone is 1/100 to be tory.  More likely i die before the election than the tories lose this seat.  There must be another 20 or 30 seats we can combi together at 1/100 to get a bet around 1/3 which is virtually bomb proof if they allow big accas. 

Mansfield = Labour.
They could put a donkey up and it would win, in fact thats what theyve been doing for 60 years.

It must be all of those Coxmoor blokes voting for them

Even though most of the ex miners will be dead in 20 years time (and yes, they all do play at Coxmoor) i cant see it ever changing.
Now i have moved to Newark and Sherwood i have a different issue of a wasted vote, as its bluesville out on farmers turf.

[Doobs]

I was trying a few days ago to put into words why the Rosberg bet was in trouble

fortunately james allen's article today does it

http://www.jamesallenonf1.com/2015/04/insight-why-vettel-and-ferrari-were-a-menace-to-rosberg-in-china-but-not-for-the-reason-he-thought/?utm_content=buffer6d494&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

"Last year Mercedes had a significant pace advantage over its rivals, which meant that the team strategists could experiment with different strategies – more stops or different tyres – for their car running in second place to give him a chance to win the race. This happened at most venues and led to some great races, like Bahrain and Spain, as well as some later in the season like Austin and Brazil......

The problem for Rosberg is that there is not the scope for two widely differing strategies this year between the Mercedes drivers, because Vettel is close enough that if one of the strategies goes wrong, the team would not get a 1-2 finish, in fact it might even lose the race. It is one thing to switch one driver onto a different tyre for the second stint if you are racing yourselves with the third place car 8 or 10 seconds behind. But quite another if Vettel is sitting 1.6 seconds behind in third place at the end of the opening stint.

This puts more emphasis on qualifying and the start of the race, which is why Rosberg was so deflated after missing pole by 4/100ths of a second on Saturday and why Hamilton had his car pointed at an aggressive angle on the start line, aiming across at Rosberg to cut off any challenge into Turn 1."

--

As, mistakes or mechanical problems apart, Rosberg can't outqualify Hamilton too often or overtake him in the race on what has to be an identical strategy...he's unlikely to beat him over a season long contest

There's no denying anything you've said here - it's fact rather than an opinion, Hamilton does just have the edge over his team mate in terms of pace. However this: "mistakes or mechanical problems apart", is what gives Rosberg a shot at the title. It's 50/50 on who has more reliability issues during the season. If Hamilton has two more mechanical issues, that's (probably) 50 points up to Rosberg. We got 4/1 on this which is phenomenal 

What makes this even better is that Hamilton does have a history of having accidents as the pressure builds later on in the season if he's unhappy with life. We saw it in 2010 & 2012.

I don't think we did get 4/1, we got 3/1.  4 for a decimal odds from Betfair is the same as 3/1 old school.

Sometimes our bets will turn bad.  It is just bound to happen and you have to accept it and move on.  Now we can get 6/1 or 7.0 on Rosberg which is probably fair odds, because of the chances of mechanical issues etc.  I suspect 5/1 and a third the odds 1-2 is a better bet, I am not recommending it though.

Ah right, I personally got 4/1.

Interesting about an each way bet, I'll mull it over.

I was trying a few days ago to put into words why the Rosberg bet was in trouble

fortunately james allen's article today does it

http://www.jamesallenonf1.com/2015/04/insight-why-vettel-and-ferrari-were-a-menace-to-rosberg-in-china-but-not-for-the-reason-he-thought/?utm_content=buffer6d494&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

"Last year Mercedes had a significant pace advantage over its rivals, which meant that the team strategists could experiment with different strategies – more stops or different tyres – for their car running in second place to give him a chance to win the race. This happened at most venues and led to some great races, like Bahrain and Spain, as well as some later in the season like Austin and Brazil......

The problem for Rosberg is that there is not the scope for two widely differing strategies this year between the Mercedes drivers, because Vettel is close enough that if one of the strategies goes wrong, the team would not get a 1-2 finish, in fact it might even lose the race. It is one thing to switch one driver onto a different tyre for the second stint if you are racing yourselves with the third place car 8 or 10 seconds behind. But quite another if Vettel is sitting 1.6 seconds behind in third place at the end of the opening stint.

This puts more emphasis on qualifying and the start of the race, which is why Rosberg was so deflated after missing pole by 4/100ths of a second on Saturday and why Hamilton had his car pointed at an aggressive angle on the start line, aiming across at Rosberg to cut off any challenge into Turn 1."

--

As, mistakes or mechanical problems apart, Rosberg can't outqualify Hamilton too often or overtake him in the race on what has to be an identical strategy...he's unlikely to beat him over a season long contest

There's no denying anything you've said here - it's fact rather than an opinion, Hamilton does just have the edge over his team mate in terms of pace. However this: "mistakes or mechanical problems apart", is what gives Rosberg a shot at the title. It's 50/50 on who has more reliability issues during the season. If Hamilton has two more mechanical issues, that's (probably) 50 points up to Rosberg. We got 4/1 on this which is phenomenal 

What makes this even better is that Hamilton does have a history of having accidents as the pressure builds later on in the season if he's unhappy with life. We saw it in 2010 & 2012.

Hamilton is a quicker qualifier and has more race pace and they are in identical cars.  The spread boys think Hamilton will finish 56 points ahead (currently 17)  What price do you think it should have been if 4-1 is phenomenal?

I don't see how this is much different from Hakkinen v Coulthard in 1998.  Cars far superior to the field but one driver with a clear edge.

At the start of the season, anything more than 2/1 was crazy!

I agree, Hamilton does have a clear edge. I agreed with Tighty's comments, just said that 4/1 at the start of the season on Rosberg is a great price given potential breakdowns

Shy and BaldFred were offering each way this morning.  Guess somebody has smashed them, because neither are offering now.

[tikay]

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

Spurs 103 Pelicans 108

Jazz 91 Rockets 117

(Tuesday) - Clippers 112 - Suns 101


Someone will need to explain that to me, but it does not look good.

[BigAdz]

Probably worth a little £5 ewe on Amidon in the 4.25 Cheltenham tomorrow.

20s with Sads.

3rd, loomed for a bit, nice tip, cheers

edit sp 12/1s as well just others a bit better handicapped (which is rank vs a maiden)

oioi Adzy, ty ty ty.

Think we were on at 16/1 (recommended at 20/1) but no complaints here.

Yes, close but no cigar.

Lovely day yesterday, so I even treated Mrs Adz to spend a bit of time together at the course. Needless to say she backed the winner, but thankfully she has finally learnt her lesson, and no longer waves her £2 ew ticket in my face as I rue my missed effort with a hundred times more on it.

Interestingly I saw something I have never seen before  during the 4 horse race, when some of the bookies by the parade ring went ew first 2, and at the same odds as the rest the pack.

I could hear team maths roaring at me to load up! Tried explaining it to Mrs Adz, but it was a thankless task after a glass of bubbly in her. We go together well!!


Not a recommend, but intersted to see how Simon Crisford(ex Goldophin front man) gets on with his first turf runner today, an ex Richard Hannon horse. Al Bandar in the 3.40 Ripon.

Big gig to give up, so you would imagine he thinks he could be very good at it.

Have a good day.

[typhoon13]

Simon did confess he had dropped to the bottom of the ladder

It will be a very tough ladder to climb

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £393.64

Outstanding Bets £3923.02

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=23

Last night's NBA final games of the season did not go as we would have wished. The Spurs, winners of the division with a win, lost to the Pelicans and the Rockets won against Utah. The result meant that the Rockets pipped the Spurs to the division for a loss of £120

Here's our MVP bet Anthony Davis, whose performance last night helped the Pelicans into the playoffs and stuffed our bet on the last game

Click to see full-size image.

In worse news, by becoming number six seeds not number 2 seeds the Spurs (a top four team in the betting market for the championship) now play our LA Clippers in the first round

the play off line up is as below. Teams on which we have positions in bold

East Matchups
Hawks-Nets
Cavs-Celtics
Bulls-Bucks
Raptors-Wizards

West matchups

Warriors-Pelicans
Rockets-Mavericks
Clippers-Spurs
Trail Blazers-Grizzlies

With the East generally seen as far weaker than the West here were some odds in Vegas yesterday. The Cavs favourites and clearly where our hopes are pinned

Click to see full-size image.

Rajan Rondo, our bet torn apart by a mid season trade to the Mavs from which point on his stats plummeted, finished 5th in NBA Assists per game and a £200 loss was taken

Also yesterday a horse racing profit of £15. Amidon 3rd at Cheltenham +15 and Hurricane Alert at Kempton -£5

Overall yesterday a loss of £310   

also yesterday

Watford beat Forest 3-1. With a £25 free bet on promotion at 8-1, it could not be much closer with three games to go. The contrast to last year is interesting

Norwich play Mddlesborough at the weekend, Watford host Birmingham

Click to see full-size image.

Ighalo scored again last night, his 16th of the season, no goals for Deeney unfortunately

Click to see full-size image.

In Antigua Root is not out overnight and hopefully will go past Bell, out cheaply in the second innings, today in the top runscorer bet

Click to see full-size image.

In the IPL top runscorer bet Murali Vijay failed again, out for 19 in the KXIP loss to Delhi

in the county championship Mddlesex minus a man batted all day to save their game with Notts, walking off at 6pm 7 down thanks to runs from Vges and Cmpton securing draw points to kick off the season

Click to see full-size image.

two losses in the MLBlast night for Boston

Click to see full-size image.

and the White Sox

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

did anyone watch Porto-Bayern last night

Porto won 3-1 and were very good value for it

Bayern is the 11th Champions League team to lose the first leg 3-1 on the road; 3 of previous 10 advanced.

Porto is the underdog to qualify, >even money in a spot

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/bayern-munich-v-porto/to-qualify

of course its Bayern, and they have a decent shot at overcoming the deficit but are they really favourites to advance?

[tikay]

in the county championship Mddlesex minus a man batted all day to save their game with Notts, walking off at 6pm 7 down thanks to runs from Vges and Cmpton securing draw points to kick off the season


That was something of a surprise, was it not?

[TightEnd]

in the county championship Mddlesex minus a man batted all day to save their game with Notts, walking off at 6pm 7 down thanks to runs from Vges and Cmpton securing draw points to kick off the season


That was something of a surprise, was it not?

it was

unusual for teams to hold on for the draw there, batting out the final day missing a batsman injured.

early days, but it might bode well.

[tikay]

in the county championship Mddlesex minus a man batted all day to save their game with Notts, walking off at 6pm 7 down thanks to runs from Vges and Cmpton securing draw points to kick off the season


That was something of a surprise, was it not?

it was

unusual for teams to hold on for the draw there, batting out the final day missing a batsman injured.

early days, but it might bode well.

I had planned to watch the Barca game last night, but switched back to the England Test Match after a few minutes, the coverage was excellent, & the game quite enjoyable to watch, especially compared to the football.  Sky Sports cover cricket rather well, I think.

Between balls, however, the venue's PA system blasted out.....MUSIC. Between balls. In a Test Match.

If that does not result in a letter to The Times from "Disgusted, Tunbridge Wells", I'll be very disappointed indeed.

An utter & unforgiveable disgrace. No wonder West Indies Test Cricket is in such a mess. Music.