Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

your bets (1)

Single - St Helens v Leeds Rhinos

Louis McCarthy-Scarsbrook (St Helens) - |Anytime Try Scorer|

Odds: 5/1

1 lines at £10.00 per line

Total Stake for this bet: £10.00

Potential Return:£60.00

Time : 17/4/2015-11:40

Receipt No:O/142640973/0000916

[Karabiner]

Is Fred on anyone to win the World Snooker?

I like Sean Murphy myself mainly because he's shown a level of form this year that I've not seen him produce for a long time, so I reckon he probably really believes he can win it again.

[TightEnd]

Is Fred on anyone to win the World Snooker?

I like Sean Murphy myself mainly because he's shown a level of form this year that I've not seen him produce for a long time, so I reckon he probably really believes he can win it again.

we aren't

i wrote a few days ago about the lopsidedness of the draw. did you see it on here?

so far robertson, selby, ronnie, maguire, allen all mentioned in dispatches with varying degrees of conviction and frankly i don/'t know who to back for the thread

[tikay]

Is Fred on anyone to win the World Snooker?

I like Sean Murphy myself mainly because he's shown a level of form this year that I've not seen him produce for a long time, so I reckon he probably really believes he can win it again.

Hi Ralph,

Don't think we have much of a book yet, but some stuff was posted a few days ago, I'll bump it shortly.

PS - Will I see you at DTD on Sunday? Matt The Hoople said he might play if he can get on my table.

[tikay]

The World Snooker Championship begins its Crucible play this Saturday as the top 16 play the sixteen qualifiers, who are concluding the final qualifying round currently

The draw for the top 16 seeds has happened, shown on http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_World_Snooker_Championship

it is, i think, a lopsided draw

this is important because the market is e/w 1/2 1,2

you can, theoretically, identify a half lacking the depth of the other and try to pick a player to win that half

http://www.oddschecker.com/snooker/world-championship/world-snooker-championship/winner

the bottom half is a monster

the third quarter has Ding and Higgins due to meet in the second round then Trump in the quarters

the winner of that quarter meets, assuming all goes to plan, Ronnie from the fourth quarter (and Mark Williams who has shown more appetite for the game in 2015 got the bad draw, ronnie in round 2)

the top half is a bit easier, though selby v maguire in the second round is a tough one for both players..then murphy in the quarters...then theoretically robertson in the semi's

the high seeds in the top half have lacked form most of the season

- selby struggled until he won in china recently

- murphy won the masters in january, but in ranking tournaments has only got past the quarters once

- Robertson won the wuxi early on but has only one quarter final since september

- maguire has two quarters and a semi, none since xmas

- allen semi final in the masters, two finals early on nothing since october

--

whereas the bottom half has players in form, and depth, the top half looks wide open to me

outright prices for the top half players are

robertson 6/1
selby 8/1
murphy 11/1
allen  28/1
maguire 33/1
50/1 bar

i can't see anyone bar those 5 getting to the top half semi. can you?

i was thinking that with the front three looking vulnerable on season long form (albeit they will have been looking to peak for the crucible, they still have to try to do well all season for rankings purposes, and by and large haven't), that the value has to be in taking Allen and Maguire e/w for the title and trying to get a run from one deep in the tournament

allen would have to get through robertson, maguire would have to get through selby/murphy  but i think both offer a lot more value than the front three

thoughts welcome please.  

BUMPED for the old fella.

[tikay]

would also be interested in any thoughts on first round upsets at odds against

the draw as follows

 Mark Selby (Eng) v Kurt Maflin (Nor)

Stephen Maguire (Sco) v Anthony McGill (Sco)

Joe Perry (Eng) v Zhang Anda (Chn)

Shaun Murphy (Eng) v Robin Hull (Fin)

Barry Hawkins (Eng) v Matthew Selt (Eng)

Mark Allen (NI) v Ryan Day (Wal)

Ali Carter (Eng) v Alan McManus (Sco)

Neil Robertson (Aus) v Jamie Jones (Wal)

Ding Junhui (Chn) v Mark Davis (Eng)

John Higgins (Sco) v Robert Milkins (Eng)

Marco Fu () v Jimmy Robertson (Eng)

Judd Trump (Eng) v Stuart Carrington (Eng)

Ricky Walden (Eng) v Graeme Dott (Sco)

Stuart Bingham (Eng) v Robbie Williams (Eng)

Mark Williams (Wal) v Matthew Stevens (Wal)

Ronnie O'Sullivan (Eng) v Craig Steadman (Eng)

at first glance Dott, McManus and Selt appeal. First two are nuggety tough fighters, tricky to put away though of course Ali Carter is a fine matchplayer too. All three are 6/4+

http://www.oddschecker.com/snooker/world-championship

of course this year every qualifier has played 3 19 frame matches to get through...numbers 32-17 were not seeded to final qualifying....so you could look to argue that the qualfiers will be match hardened coming into this

BUMPED

Another one.

We are a bit thin on interest in this so far, be nice to have some sweats if we can identify value.

[DungBeetle]

"Norwich-Mddlesborough tonight in the Campionship. 2nd v 4th. Draw please....or else Watford's manager will be on the case"

Draw is best but reckon we are happy with any result apart from a Norwich win Tighty.  That then means if Watford win their last 3 winnable games then they are up and don't have to faff around worrying about pasting someone for the goal difference.

[Karabiner]

Is Fred on anyone to win the World Snooker?

I like Sean Murphy myself mainly because he's shown a level of form this year that I've not seen him produce for a long time, so I reckon he probably really believes he can win it again.

Hi Ralph,

Don't think we have much of a book yet, but some stuff was posted a few days ago, I'll bump it shortly.

PS - Will I see you at DTD on Sunday? Matt The Hoople said he might play if he can get on my table.

Hi Tony,

Yes I'm definitely planning on playing the PLO on Sunday as long as it's not delayed until 8pm. I bumped into Simon "slo-mo" Hawksworth at Wollaton yesterday and he said he might pop in later in the afternoon to say hello.

Matt The Hoople, yum-yum.

[DungBeetle]

I still like Murphy as well despite it looking like a tough quarter/semi/final.  He's looked to have a really strong all round game when I have seen him this year and I think he'll really fancy it this year.  Pretty vague stuff from me admittedly, but I reckon he'd win this more than 1 time out of 10.  Given Selby has to play Maguire I like Murphy's price a lot more than Selby's.

[The Camel]

"Norwich-Mddlesborough tonight in the Campionship. 2nd v 4th. Draw please....or else Watford's manager will be on the case"

Draw is best but reckon we are happy with any result apart from a Norwich win Tighty.  That then means if Watford win their last 3 winnable games then they are up and don't have to faff around worrying about pasting someone for the goal difference.

Explain?

[DungBeetle]

Boro are 1 point behind so if Boro and Watford win all their last games Watford are up (as to do this Boro have to beat Norwich).

[TightEnd]

good Murphy article just out today

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/snooker/32337080?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[simonnatur]

good Murphy article just out today

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/snooker/32337080?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

tldr, cliffs: found a good woman (the chemistry must have been right)

[DungBeetle]

I wonder if Murphy is now popular again with the other players.  I remember he dobbed Maguire in for leaving his chalk behind in the dressing room and demanded the ref fine him a frame very early on in his career.  I remember watching that game on the worldsnooker scoreboard and thinking it must have been a record speed break!

[The Camel]

Boro are 1 point behind so if Boro and Watford win all their last games Watford are up (as to do this Boro have to beat Norwich).

But why would the Watford manager be "on the case"?