Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Just popped up on SSN, that Nadal has been ironed out in whatever comp he was playing.

He was beaten in Barcelona by the enigmatic Fognini

only the third time in 11 years he has not won the tournament

all the 5/4 Djok has gone, a few bits and bobs of 6/5 11/10 around

Nadal stays world number 4. Nishikori gets to wiithin 110 points of the 4 spot in the world rankings if he wins this week

if we don't think evens+ djok is value for roland garros, and its 25-1 bar two...

who is the value?

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/french-open/mens/winner

Trust Foggy to upset the applecart.

Never mind, on we jolly well go.

[tikay]

Ladbrokes have introduced a new market

Find the labour landmine

the blurb explains

http://news.ladbrokes.com/politics/find-labour-landmine_232466.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_content=sports&utm_campaign=politics&hootPostID=06534ae14a925f289e2bbd92f4302f7f

Click to see full-size image.

there is a real sweet spot here that i think we should take advantage of

Worcester and above sees Labour second to current odds on shots

below Cannock chase sees Labour odds on/or evens each of two

taking the five that i am interested in....

cannock chase is a proper marginal currently priced lab 11/8 con 15/8

renfrewshire east is murphy's constituency, polled by ashcroft with snp ahead a fortnight ago and SNP 10/11. we can probably exclude this

birmingham yardley is lab evens lib evens and we are on LD: incumbency of a popular local MP. we can exclude this

harrow east labour 4/5

stockton south labour 4/5

obviously it is not beyond the realms of possiblity that one on the list above cannock chase goes labour but the chances are that the winner of this market will be one of

cannock chase
renfrewshireeast - snp likely
yardley - ld we hope
harrow east
stockton south

the chances of at least onel of the five not going labour is remote in my opinion

16-1 the field

suggest fivers on cannock chase, harrow east and stockton south

would be surprised if the winner was below this grouping

we are getting the same price on some of these which we can probably rule out such as brighton pav where the greens are 1/3 sheffield hallam/clegg, bermondsey/hughes etc


http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/labourtargets/ has labour marginal targets

look around number 50 for these constituencies

labour currently forecast to win 45 or so on poll of polls

Unless anyone thinks there's a catch (I have no idea) go ahead & do it, please.

[arbboy]

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/premier-league

Darts tonight.  Couple of 7/2 draws i have backed for small stakes.  Recommend £30 on each.  Usual coin flip type games with a small edge at 7/2.  Nothing new.

Barney v Jizz
Power v Jackpot

Also backed the Ando v MVG draw at 888 if you can get the 19/5 or bigger after commission on bf.  Wouldn't be taking shorter than 19/5 after commission.  £30 on that as well.

[TightEnd]

i had a long chat with someone about this, who did the maths on the probabilities of labour win/lose each seat above and told me that anyone below bermondsey should be 50-1

you basically have to fade all the elements of a big multiple to get to my picks

he thought seats in the range watford/yarmouth/thanet were the bets

[arbboy]

i had a long chat with someone about this, who did the maths on the probabilities of labour win/lose each seat above and told me that anyone below bermondsey should be 50-1

you basically have to fade all the elements of a big multiple to get to my picks

he thought seats in the range watford/yarmouth/thanet were the bets

Wouldn't surprise me at all.  It is the kind of market ladbrokes could bet to 180% and still totally feck it up and have a couple of big ricks in it.

[arbboy]

This McGill in the snooker reminds me a lot of Murphy the year he won the worlds in 2005.  Does anyone know if he is in the 'easy' or 'tough' half of the draw?  Very tempted to back him ew if he is in the easier half at the prices.

[TightEnd]

This McGill in the snooker reminds me a lot of Murphy the year he won the worlds in 2005.  Does anyone know if he is in the 'easy' or 'tough' half of the draw?  Very tempted to back him ew if he is in the easier half at the prices.

wins this his path is murphy-robertson-final, assuming those favourites win

its the easier half..no trump/ronnie etc but once you get to the last 16 last 8 there isn't an easier half, if that makes sense

[TightEnd]

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/premier-league

Darts tonight.  Couple of 7/2 draws i have backed for small stakes.  Recommend £30 on each.  Usual coin flip type games with a small edge at 7/2.  Nothing new.

Barney v Jizz
Power v Jackpot

Also backed the Ando v MVG draw at 888 if you can get the 19/5 or bigger after commission on bf.  Wouldn't be taking shorter than 19/5 after commission.  £30 on that as well.

Barney v Chisnall please. lets try to uphold some standards. Jizz indeed

I remember a funny story. a member asked for a name change to "Jizzem" must have been 6-7 years ago

i changed it, and another mod said in basic terms to me "wtf? why are we allowing that name?"

i had to look up why it might be inappropriate. sheltered life

anyway

23 Apr 2015 - Raymond van Barneveld v Dave Chisnall - Match Betting

Draw @ 7/2

Stake : £30.00
Estimated Returns : £
135.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001299/F
Total Stake : £30.00

Power v Jackpot? solid darting nicknames

23 Apr 2015 - Phil Taylor v Adrian Lewis - Match Betting

Draw @ 7/2

Stake : £30.00
Estimated Returns : £
135.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001300/F


888 we don't have and the draw in the final game is not quite 19/5 betfair pre-comm

i have left it for now

[arbboy]

sorry i copied and pasted it from skype which i sent to someone else.  Wasn't intentional.  My apologies.

[Marky147]

I can do the 888 if you want

[TightEnd]

I can do the 888 if you want

the iron Bank of marky, to the rescue

[Marky147]

I can do the 888 if you want

the iron Bank of marky, to the rescue

£30 @ 19/5 Ando v MVG (DRAW) - 888

Tikay really should open one with 888/Uni, as they're quite handy to have, and are out of line on markets.

[tikay]

I can do the 888 if you want

The National Debt soars ever higher.

Could be the greatest grim ever, this.

PS - Thanks Mark.

[tikay]

I can do the 888 if you want

the iron Bank of marky, to the rescue

£30 @ 19/5 Ando v MVG (DRAW) - 888

Tikay really should open one with 888/Uni, as they're quite handy to have, and are out of line on markets.

Can't recall why we don't, seem to remember some problem, but no idea what it was - will try again tomorrow.

[Marky147]

I can do the 888 if you want

The National Debt soars ever higher.

Could be the greatest grim ever, this.

PS - Thanks Mark.

Until they all come bowling in, and I'm sipping Starbies at the Nugget, on Fred