Tips for Tikay

[DungBeetle]

Bautista Agut is through after a 6-0  6-3 win over Stepanek.

Emphatic, well done hector.

When does he next play?

Ok.  I'm not going to make any friends here - but do we need to stroke Hector's ego every time an odds on shot wins?   I don't remember a tennis match update from Hector when Nadal (tournament jolly) got ripped up by Fognini last week.  (tighty updated it on the dailies of course)  I imagine I'm alone but this feature of TFT winds me up no end - it's like the old betfair forum.  I assume Hector has a positive ROI but do we really need to congratulate every little progress and ignore when players crash and burn?

Dung happy to check out of thread, but I spit feathers internally every time I see it.

Morning Dungbeetle.

Thanks for this post. I'd just like to clarify exactly what our arrangement is here.

I am expected to research and find profitable bets across a number of sports.

I have to write a detailed proposal of why they are good bets.

I have to give a detailed account after each event of how the bet fared.

You maintain the right to be abusive towards me or anyone who writes anything nice about my selections whenever you run low on addictive substances.


The only question I have is this. What's in it for me?

Good morning Hector - I apologise for the tone of the post again.

The point remains though - you thought Cuevas should have been favourite against Agut a week back and 2 posters questioned that but you didn't reply to their posts and it just went on as an "auto-bet".  It was the same when I asked why you thought Verdasco was value to beat Murray at the French last year when he had a mammoth losing head to head.  It's as if you think your selections are not up for discussion by other posters.

Yet Agut winning against an early round match veteran on his worst surface is worthy of a post?

Anyway - as you say it's nothing to do with me so I won't create any discussion around your selections in future.

All the best.

Dung

[Tal]

Another one for the draft tonight.

Tighty and I both agree that Winston and Mariota go 1&2, the two outstanding quarterbacks.

Pick three is Jacksonville Jagwarrrrs. They will go defense. In my view, the best player available would be Leonard Williams. However, in our "mock drafts", Tighty and I have both said they'll choose a different player (more an outside linebacker, than a defensive end): Dante Fowler. In a division that has Andrew Luck in it, you need guys who can scare on the outside of the offensive line. I think that's how the analytics-led Jagwarrrs go, rather than with Williams.

Billy Mountain disagrees, according to its "first defensive end" market:

Williams 4/7
Fowler 13/10

Recommend £30 on Fowler.


Edit: should add there's a small chance Tennessee draft Fowler instead of Mariota, as he suits their defensive system.

[TightEnd]

Another one for the draft tonight.

Tighty and I both agree that Winston and Mariota go 1&2, the two outstanding quarterbacks.

Pick three is Jacksonville Jagwarrrrs. They will go defense. In my view, the best player available would be Leonard Williams. However, in our "mock drafts", Tighty and I have both said they'll choose a different player (more an outside linebacker, than a defensive end): Dante Fowler. In a division that has Andrew Luck in it, you need guys who can scare on the outside of the offensive line. I think that's how the analytics-led Jagwarrrs go, rather than with Williams.

Billy Mountain disagrees, according to its "first defensive end" market:

Williams 4/7
Fowler 13/10

Recommend £30 on Fowler.


Edit: should add there's a small chance Tennessee draft Fowler instead of Mariota, as he suits their defensive system.

if the Jagwas choose Amari cooper (they might, a weapon for bortles and a z complement to Robinson at the x) then i think williams goes above fowler at 4 to the raiders

all very fluid

mcshay of NFL network put his last mock up in the last hour (based on what he is hearing through all of his contacts) and wrote

"Finished final Mock 6.0. QBs Winston, Mariota remain 1, 2. Then 3 best non-QBs in some order - WR Cooper, DL Williams, and OLB Fowler"

"Mildly surprised how many teams still legit interested in moving up. NYJ, PHI, CLE to 2 (Mariota) "

anyway, dunno, it will be a day of rumours/counter-rumours spin and deception.

should be fun especially as the Philly package for mariota is reputdely

a) trade bradford to the browns

b) two firsts (13 and 21), a second round pick, fletcher cox, mychal kendricks and vinny curry for pick 2


vis a vis fowler/williams feels like 13/10 about a flip i suppose

01 May 2015 - 2015 NFL Draft - 1st Defensive End Drafted

Dante Fowler Jr @ 13/10

Stake : £30.00
Estimated Returns : £
69.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001308/F
Total Stake : £30.00

[arbboy]

Quick question...someone I know (it actually isn't me this time) has been offered to set up accounts for a pro. What's the going rate? Feel free to pm me / delete this if worried ...

I have paid up to £1k before for a totally clean from gambling ever bank account.  That was in the days when sign up bonuses and free bets were more valuable to be fair.  I have also rented a Hills account for £25 a day before to arb horses years ago as well.   There are so many different ways to do it.  

One word of warning for the person you know.  There is a lot more admin nowadays involving doing this for a pro.  Scanning copies of ID's etc for accounts which you never had to do in the past.  The potential effect it will have on their ability to get/renew their mortgage/other credit facilities as banks clamp down on certain types of spending.  Depending on who they actually bank with they might actually get their current account closed for 'too many gambling transactions'.

Anytime i buy a bank account i make it very clear it is not money for old rope.  There is work to do/risks to take.

Cheers, will let them know :-)

Eta: actually after rereading I meant bookie accounts not bank accounts...

Sure but if a pro gambler wants to use your bookie account he is going to have to use your bank account as well linked to that account to fund said account.

[superwomble]

There was some discussion on here recently about final placings and form of play-off teams so you may like to read this week's Knowledge article on the Guardian website, where someone has done a pretty in-depth analysis of this: http://www.theguardian.com/football/2015/apr/29/does-league-form-matter-in-play-offs

[TightEnd]

and on another bet we already have

the saints are meant to really like bryce petty the QB, regarding him as the best pure passer in the draft. Brees is ancient and his skills declined last year. the GMhas talked about drafting a QB this year. the franchise is in rebuilding mode (dumped a lot of salary cap, traded jimmy graham away etc etc)

they pick 13 (likely a defensive pick, pass rusher) and 31 and he simply has to be in play at 31

the browns, if they don't trade up for mariota, might be a home for a third quarterback too depending if they trade one of 12 or 19 away

you can get up to 5/1 a 3rd quarterback in the 1st round.

definitely should be odds against but its much shorter than 7/2, 4/1, 5/1 depending who you can use

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl-specials/nfl-draft/1st-round-quarterbacks

[tikay]

Tighty - the Wiggins bet.

I'm honestly not fussed what month it goes in, though if I were given the choice, I'd say next month, as it means April and May are both good, & we have plenty of stale stuff to write off in May.  I prefer nice smooth graphs, not bumpy ones.

But my real point would be, if they have yet to announce it, we should not include it, should we? We have always been very strict as to prudency.

No big deal either way, but I do think the numbers should stand scrutiny by an auditor.

Mere might get grumpy with us, too. And he does great grumpy.

Leave it as is, but I just think the numbers must always be squeaky clean. 

[TightEnd]

two more

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl-specials/nfl-draft/1st-offensive-tackle-drafted

la-el collins likely won't be drafted high, as of tuesday he is wanted for questioning (not as a suspect as far as we know) by police/paternity tests over a 2 year old child in connection with the death of his ex-girlfriend and had to leave chicago/the draft yesterday

teams can't get the necessary info in time to pick him high with the multi million dollar commitment this implies

yet uk markets are unchanged he's still in at 3rd favourite

browsing sites/twitter every single giants beat writer says they are picking ereck flowers over brandon scherff at number 9

does a team take an OL above 9? maybe but really only washington at 5 might

i can only get £1.67 on at laddies for tikay at 6-1 so left it, but if you can get on then go ahead

--

top cornerback

waynes has been as short as 1/6 but his natural landing place is the vikings at 11. their gm rick spielman is on record as wanting to trade down. there is also some talk that waynes isn't the consensus top player either at his position

kevin johnson is talented and coveted by plenty of teams from pick 15 onwards, yet he's 10-1 in stale markets

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl-specials/nfl-draft/1st-cornerback-drafted

johnson is a safer pick than byron jones...this chatter talks the issues

"Byron Jones of UConn also, like Perriman, saw his stock tremendously rise after a jaw-dropping NFL Combine performance. But, again, not every team feels he’s a top-20 pick, and more than few feel he’d be better at safety (which I agree with). If Kevin Johnson isn’t there, the Steelers likely have interest. The Cardinals, Colts and Packers all still may take him, but it wouldn’t totally shock me if he fell out of the first-round. The Vikings could be a suitor to trade back into the first-round, something GM Rick Speilman is never afraid to do."

http://optimumscouting.com/draft/state-of-the-draft-raiders-49ers-trade-trade-talk-player-team-fits-and-much-more.html

------------

slight disclaimer: small stakes stuff please and eyes open, plenty of stuff flies around on the day of the draft but i am pretty certain I will be filtering it better than uk books who aren't moving any prices...

[tikay]

and on another bet we already have

the saints are meant to really like bryce petty the QB, regarding him as the best pure passer in the draft. Brees is ancient and his skills declined last year. the GMhas talked about drafting a QB this year. the franchise is in rebuilding mode (dumped a lot of salary cap, traded jimmy graham away etc etc)

they pick 13 (likely a defensive pick, pass rusher) and 31 and he simply has to be in play at 31

the browns, if they don't trade up for mariota, might be a home for a third quarterback too depending if they trade one of 12 or 19 away

you can get up to 5/1 a 3rd quarterback in the 1st round.

definitely should be odds against but its much shorter than 7/2, 4/1, 5/1 depending who you can use

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl-specials/nfl-draft/1st-round-quarterbacks

Is this a Recommend, or are we already on?

If it's a Recommend, go ahead please.

[TightEnd]

Tighty - the Wiggins bet.

I'm honestly not fussed what month it goes in, though if I were given the choice, I'd say next month, as it means April and May are both good, & we have plenty of stale stuff to write off in May.  I prefer nice smooth graphs, not bumpy ones.

But my real point would be, if they have yet to announce it, we should not include it, should we? We have always been very strict as to prudency.

No big deal either way, but I do think the numbers should stand scrutiny by an auditor.

Mere might get grumpy with us, too. And he does great grumpy.

Leave it as is, but I just think the numbers must always be squeaky clean. 

i took it today on the assumption it will be announced, as heavily trailed yesterday, before midnight today

thinking that was the cleanest approach

if there is nothing i will take it out and pop it into may

[TightEnd]

and on another bet we already have

the saints are meant to really like bryce petty the QB, regarding him as the best pure passer in the draft. Brees is ancient and his skills declined last year. the GMhas talked about drafting a QB this year. the franchise is in rebuilding mode (dumped a lot of salary cap, traded jimmy graham away etc etc)

they pick 13 (likely a defensive pick, pass rusher) and 31 and he simply has to be in play at 31

the browns, if they don't trade up for mariota, might be a home for a third quarterback too depending if they trade one of 12 or 19 away

you can get up to 5/1 a 3rd quarterback in the 1st round.

definitely should be odds against but its much shorter than 7/2, 4/1, 5/1 depending who you can use

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl-specials/nfl-draft/1st-round-quarterbacks

Is this a Recommend, or are we already on?

If it's a Recommend, go ahead please.

we are on at 6-1, i was just updating the situation

[tikay]

Bautista Agut is through after a 6-0  6-3 win over Stepanek.

Emphatic, well done hector.

When does he next play?

Ok.  I'm not going to make any friends here - but do we need to stroke Hector's ego every time an odds on shot wins?   I don't remember a tennis match update from Hector when Nadal (tournament jolly) got ripped up by Fognini last week.  (tighty updated it on the dailies of course)  I imagine I'm alone but this feature of TFT winds me up no end - it's like the old betfair forum.  I assume Hector has a positive ROI but do we really need to congratulate every little progress and ignore when players crash and burn?

Dung happy to check out of thread, but I spit feathers internally every time I see it.

Oops, I've upset the applecart again.

I try, when I remember, & time permits, to thank everyone for their winning bets. I often forget, but that's the idea. Someone - anyone - gives us a good bet, it just seems polite, to me, to thank them.

I'll admit a certain amount of bias with hector, as he is someone I particularly like, (though, sadly, I've never met him), & always enjoy reading his stuff, he words stuff in a way that I enjoy. It's human nature, I think, to be a little biased towards those we particularly respect.

Honestly, I try to thank everyone for their contributions, & that includes your great input here on a variety of stuff.

It seems very easy to upset folks there days, but no harm was intended. 

Which begs the question, what happens next time hector pops up with a nice winner? Or Adzy, Chompy, Argue, Marky (sorry, that example was silly),  or anyone else?

I know you had a lip on, & have mended fences, thank you, but I'm just a bit surprised it could be interpreted as ego stroking. It was "thank you" no more no less. The thread wheels do need oiling from time to time, you know.

[DungBeetle]

You are right of course Tikay.  Apologies for being grouchy last night.

[Karabiner]

Some people don't seem to reralise that schmooze is Tikay's stock in trade.

Well one of them anyway.

[arbboy]

Some people don't seem to reralise that schmooze is Tikay's stock in trade.

Well one of them anyway.

Where as your stock in trade Ralf is backing players at double figure prices to win snooker events!  Good start by the smurf this afternoon are you watching?