Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

If you thought the party leaders got a raw deal last night, I'd suggest having a look at Nigel Pearson's press conference today on the BBC website.

That is an extraordinary interview, never seen anything like it, & most uncomfortable to watch.

I'll link to it on the "Mr Nigel Pearson" thread.

[arbboy]

If you thought the party leaders got a raw deal last night, I'd suggest having a look at Nigel Pearson's press conference today on the BBC website.

That is an extraordinary interview, never seen anything like it, & most uncomfortable to watch.

I'll link to it on the "Mr Nigel Pearson" thread.

Esp as it was with one of the longest standing well respected midlands media guys, Pat Murphy of the bbc.  Not some tin pot newbie on the block.

[tikay]

If you thought the party leaders got a raw deal last night, I'd suggest having a look at Nigel Pearson's press conference today on the BBC website.

That is an extraordinary interview, never seen anything like it, & most uncomfortable to watch.

I'll link to it on the "Mr Nigel Pearson" thread.

Esp as it was with one of the longest standing well respected midlands media guys, Pat Murphy of the bbc.  Not some tin pot newbie on the block.

I've always enjoyed listening to Pat Murphy, he has great contacts & insight, but I think we was well out of order here. Pearson was wrong to be so rude the other night, but he apologised.

Move on boys, life's too short.

[arbboy]

If you thought the party leaders got a raw deal last night, I'd suggest having a look at Nigel Pearson's press conference today on the BBC website.

That is an extraordinary interview, never seen anything like it, & most uncomfortable to watch.

I'll link to it on the "Mr Nigel Pearson" thread.

Esp as it was with one of the longest standing well respected midlands media guys, Pat Murphy of the bbc.  Not some tin pot newbie on the block.

I've always enjoyed listening to Pat Murphy, he has great contacts & insight, but I think we was well out of order here. Pearson was wrong to be so rude the other night, but he apologised.

Move on boys, life's too short.

You think Murphy was bang out of order?

[tikay]

If you thought the party leaders got a raw deal last night, I'd suggest having a look at Nigel Pearson's press conference today on the BBC website.

That is an extraordinary interview, never seen anything like it, & most uncomfortable to watch.

I'll link to it on the "Mr Nigel Pearson" thread.

Esp as it was with one of the longest standing well respected midlands media guys, Pat Murphy of the bbc.  Not some tin pot newbie on the block.

I've always enjoyed listening to Pat Murphy, he has great contacts & insight, but I think we was well out of order here. Pearson was wrong to be so rude the other night, but he apologised.

Move on boys, life's too short.

You think Murphy was bang out of order?

Yes.

I don't believe he is answerable to Pat Murphy.

[TightEnd]

i think Murphy is normally very good, on all sports but Pearson started off publically apologising to Ian Baker, which was accepted

for a third party, the most experienced journalist in the room, then go again on the same issues showed a distinct lack of class

Pearson did well to keep his personal volcano from erupting and fight him to a score draw.

[arbboy]

Bit of value in Watford for the title on betfair if you are a low bf commission user (at 5% there is still a small edge - 1.29 after commission) and can get the 1.31.

Based on the match prices for the weekend Bournemouth can only win the title if the following happens:

B draw x Watford lose - 4.7 x 10.0 = 47.0 or 2%
B win x Waford lose - 1.55 x 10.0 = 15.5 or 6.5%
B Win x Watford draw 1.55 x 5.2 = 8.0 or 12.5%

Overall 21% chance Bournemouth win the league.  100/21 = 4.75 as a decimal.  Which makes Watford a 1.266 poke to 100%.

Yet another example of the fav/longshot bias and punters 'locking in/giving it away' on ante post position driving the short priced jolly to a price which is too big if you are willing to get involved.

Got another one coming later in a similar vein once i am fully on myself.  It is an arb which has a decent edge and a 10/1 freeroll to win both bets outright.  All driven by the short price being too big for similar factors to above which you can just back itself if you like a shortie.

[TightEnd]

anyone got any views on Derby at the weekend?  I found a lovely spot on them but just want people's views/team news/motivation etc etc.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/derby-v-reading/winner

reading in the league have been very poor before and after their wembley semi-final.

wary of a "team needs to win will win" but Derby only need a point to get in the play offs...16 goal difference advantage over Brentford

could try to "game" finishing 5th or 6th depending if they have a preference for middlesborough or norwich?

eg a point =6th, 3 points might mean 5th

not sure derby would prefer or beat either though, so not sure if that is the angle you are coming from

[arbboy]

anyone got any views on Derby at the weekend?  I found a lovely spot on them but just want people's views/team news/motivation etc etc.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/derby-v-reading/winner

reading in the league have been very poor before and after their wembley semi-final.

wary of a "team needs to win will win" but Derby only need a point to get in the play offs...16 goal difference advantage over Brentford

could try to "game" finishing 5th or 6th depending if they have a preference for middlesborough or norwich?

eg a point =6th, 3 points might mean 5th

not sure derby would prefer or beat either though, so not sure if that is the angle you are coming from

Major angle really was whether the match prices for Saturday are right as the bet is based on them.

[TightEnd]

Leicester 2/7 to stay up Hills Recommend £105.  Can't have the bosses forward book being below £4k for too long!  Money sitting around not making more money is criminal.

This really is a cracking bet.  Obviously under on bf and bet365/spreadex are 4/1 leics to go down so for the arbing nits out there just take the 2% risk free commission free if you like giving ev away to the shrewder books who are happy to lay the 4/1.  Spreads have Leics in for half a point less than Villa (Leics have better GD as well) so effectively they should be close to the same price to stay up.  Villa are 1/7 Leics are 2/7 to stay up.  Hull in for 1/2 point more than villa (1 point more than Leics) on the spreads and they are 1/20 to stay up.  All the run ins are built into the spread points quotes at this stage of the season so it is a no brainer bet on all accounts.

Main dangers Sunderland are in for 3.5 points less than Leics and have worse GD as well.  Sunderland brutal run in.  Away to Everton/Ars/Chelski.  Home to Soton.  Key game is home to Leics.  Leics don't lose that the bet is effectively weighed in.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/to-stay-up

http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/football-domestic/premier-league/mm4.uk.meeting.4719890/premier-league-points-2014-2015

Ugh

I am concerned about tomorrow

Very little recovery time after Wednesday (we are the early game saturday), Newcastle didn't have a game

Huth is a major injury, really makes a difference to the defence

it all changes if we lose tomorrow

Don't worry the maths talks.  Get the cash on!  It is sitting idle!  Worrying about beating Newcastle!!!  lolzz.  When was the last time they got a point in a game?  Take the Leics blinkers off and stick it down to me.  I will take the strain.

Typo in original post.  Spreads got Sunderland in from 2.5 points less than Leics not 3.5 as originally quoted.

You will be the death of me, and its not even my money

02 May 2015 - English Premier League - To Stay Up - Outright
Tip It

Leicester @ 2/7

Stake : £105.00
Estimated Returns : £
134.40
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001310/F

[TightEnd]

anyone got any views on Derby at the weekend?  I found a lovely spot on them but just want people's views/team news/motivation etc etc.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/derby-v-reading/winner

reading in the league have been very poor before and after their wembley semi-final.

wary of a "team needs to win will win" but Derby only need a point to get in the play offs...16 goal difference advantage over Brentford

could try to "game" finishing 5th or 6th depending if they have a preference for middlesborough or norwich?

eg a point =6th, 3 points might mean 5th

not sure derby would prefer or beat either though, so not sure if that is the angle you are coming from

Major angle really was whether the match prices for Saturday are right as the bet is based on them.

if pressed i would say derby are too short. a point does it.

[arbboy]

Leicester 2/7 to stay up Hills Recommend £105.  Can't have the bosses forward book being below £4k for too long!  Money sitting around not making more money is criminal.

This really is a cracking bet.  Obviously under on bf and bet365/spreadex are 4/1 leics to go down so for the arbing nits out there just take the 2% risk free commission free if you like giving ev away to the shrewder books who are happy to lay the 4/1.  Spreads have Leics in for half a point less than Villa (Leics have better GD as well) so effectively they should be close to the same price to stay up.  Villa are 1/7 Leics are 2/7 to stay up.  Hull in for 1/2 point more than villa (1 point more than Leics) on the spreads and they are 1/20 to stay up.  All the run ins are built into the spread points quotes at this stage of the season so it is a no brainer bet on all accounts.

Main dangers Sunderland are in for 3.5 points less than Leics and have worse GD as well.  Sunderland brutal run in.  Away to Everton/Ars/Chelski.  Home to Soton.  Key game is home to Leics.  Leics don't lose that the bet is effectively weighed in.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/to-stay-up

http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/football-domestic/premier-league/mm4.uk.meeting.4719890/premier-league-points-2014-2015

Ugh

I am concerned about tomorrow

Very little recovery time after Wednesday (we are the early game saturday), Newcastle didn't have a game

Huth is a major injury, really makes a difference to the defence

it all changes if we lose tomorrow

Don't worry the maths talks.  Get the cash on!  It is sitting idle!  Worrying about beating Newcastle!!!  lolzz.  When was the last time they got a point in a game?  Take the Leics blinkers off and stick it down to me.  I will take the strain.

Typo in original post.  Spreads got Sunderland in from 2.5 points less than Leics not 3.5 as originally quoted.

You will be the death of me, and its not even my money

02 May 2015 - English Premier League - To Stay Up - Outright
Tip It

Leicester @ 2/7

Stake : £105.00
Estimated Returns : £
134.40
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001310/F

Chompy would be rec'ing having £700 at 2/7 with hills and £150 at 4/1 the other way at 365 to get us £100 to win £50 at 1/2 effectively.  So i am going easy on the boss really from a cash flow point of view and heart attack point of view!

I don't mind doing that either if the boss is happy with it!  Sure someone can get us the £150 at bet365.  They have these markets in for £3k take out on a clean account.  

[arbboy]

anyone got any views on Derby at the weekend?  I found a lovely spot on them but just want people's views/team news/motivation etc etc.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/derby-v-reading/winner

reading in the league have been very poor before and after their wembley semi-final.

wary of a "team needs to win will win" but Derby only need a point to get in the play offs...16 goal difference advantage over Brentford

could try to "game" finishing 5th or 6th depending if they have a preference for middlesborough or norwich?

eg a point =6th, 3 points might mean 5th

not sure derby would prefer or beat either though, so not sure if that is the angle you are coming from

Major angle really was whether the match prices for Saturday are right as the bet is based on them.

if pressed i would say derby are too short. a point does it.

bet revolves around the reading price tbh.  Is 8.5/1 fair ?

[DungBeetle]

One word of discouragement, although it should already be in the prices.  Guediora's loan has run out and he cannot play.  He's been extremely influential over the last 8 games or so.

[arbboy]

One word of discouragement, although it should already be in the prices.  Guediora's loan has run out and he cannot play.  He's been extremely influential over the last 8 games or so.

cheers dung.