Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

I have looked right back to May 2012.  The only months that I haven't got the numbers for were July 2014 to November 2014.  Unless Mere can find these quickly, suggest we can let the rest go.  If anyone has the spreadsheet from then, it is just a matter of filtering on bet365 and looking for the £50 bets by month.

In that period I looked at we have incorrectly added in £210.23 in refunds (3 of the bets were less than £50 if the numbers look dodgy).  That includes the £50 from last night.

Considering we were effectively putting in play bets with no regard to the best price we ran exceptionally well.  There were definitely more winners than losers.  There are some right corkers in there, including hititng a 0-0 with the in play bet.  Unfortunately we were restricted to a tenner, but a 10/1 winner is a 10/1 winner.

I didn't record the indiividuals, so suggest we just take the £210.23 as a "fred" loser in the current month.     

 

[Marky147]

Tikay might just be the greatest

<3

My school reports were superb, until I started spending lots of time in a Snooker club...

[MereNovice]

I have looked right back to May 2012.  The only months that I haven't got the numbers for were July 2014 to November 2014.  Unless Mere can find these quickly, suggest we can let the rest go.  If anyone has the spreadsheet from then, it is just a matter of filtering on bet365 and looking for the £50 bets by month.

In that period I looked at we have incorrectly added in £210.23 in refunds (3 of the bets were less than £50 if the numbers look dodgy).  That includes the £50 from last night.

Considering we were effectively putting in play bets with no regard to the best price we ran exceptionally well.  There were definitely more winners than losers.  There are some right corkers in there, including hititng a 0-0 with the in play bet.  Unfortunately we were restricted to a tenner, but a 10/1 winner is a 10/1 winner.

I didn't record the indiividuals, so suggest we just take the £210.23 as a "fred" loser in the current month.    

 

All bets are available online.
2015 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eCEvN9MELsUxB81rHuWrfoX3zwIMPQQ205Lcjm3kbgU/edit#gid=7
2014 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UPxBmQMHbF_b3mGAv84lXhGZclIVDgAOV42ZSLjIiaQ/edit#gid=7
Pre-2014 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdHVrekx6T0REUXVNOWw5YTVWa0pWZGc#gid=7

However, it's pretty meaningless unless tikay checks his Bet365 account to see how many account adjustments were actually made.
I would have hoped that he might have spotted that several £50 bets hadn't been refunded at the time if that was the case, particularly for someone who is "OCD" about numbers.

As a side note, I believe that many people who actually suffer with OCD object to the trivialisation of the term when it is used by people to merely reflect their foibles.

[Doobs]

I have looked right back to May 2012.  The only months that I haven't got the numbers for were July 2014 to November 2014.  Unless Mere can find these quickly, suggest we can let the rest go.  If anyone has the spreadsheet from then, it is just a matter of filtering on bet365 and looking for the £50 bets by month.

In that period I looked at we have incorrectly added in £210.23 in refunds (3 of the bets were less than £50 if the numbers look dodgy).  That includes the £50 from last night.

Considering we were effectively putting in play bets with no regard to the best price we ran exceptionally well.  There were definitely more winners than losers.  There are some right corkers in there, including hititng a 0-0 with the in play bet.  Unfortunately we were restricted to a tenner, but a 10/1 winner is a 10/1 winner.

I didn't record the indiividuals, so suggest we just take the £210.23 as a "fred" loser in the current month.     

 

All bets are available online.
2015 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eCEvN9MELsUxB81rHuWrfoX3zwIMPQQ205Lcjm3kbgU/edit#gid=7
2014 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UPxBmQMHbF_b3mGAv84lXhGZclIVDgAOV42ZSLjIiaQ/edit#gid=7
Pre-2014 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdHVrekx6T0REUXVNOWw5YTVWa0pWZGc#gid=7

However, it's pretty meaningless unless tikay checks his Bet365 account to see how many account adjustments were actually made.
I would have hoped that he might have spotted that several £50 bets hadn't been refunded at the time if that was the case.

Why does he need to check his account?  I assume bet 365 have been making no payments to him since 2012 and he just hasn't noticed.  I think it is a better assumption than assuming the refunds were made and we can just book the profit anyway.

The football results are readily available online.  We have recored all are bets we made and the P and L we declared.  It is just a question of finding the result and seeing if a refund was assumed in the spreadsheet.

 

[TightEnd]

Morning Mr T.

Tonight's super league is between Hull KR and Wakefield, two of the leakiest defences around. With the weather fine I am expecting lots of points and Hull to win by 50-26 ish. Looking at the try scorer markets there is a clear bet for those with a Sky account and that is Mantellato to score anytime @ 10/11. However for Fred we must look elsewhere for a bet and that chap is Chris Riley of Wakefield. He has scored 7 tries this season, including a hat trick against these opponents earlier in the season. Wakefield are not a good team but tonight's match will give them an opportunity to score points that they have not had for some time.

Suggest £15 Riley ( aka Ming the Merciless ) to score anytime @ 6/4 with Ladbrokes.

your bets (1)

Single - Hull KR v Wakefield Wildcats

Chris Riley (Wakefield Wildcats) - |Anytime Try Scorer|

Odds: 11/8

1 lines at £15.00 per line

Total Stake for this bet: £15.00

Potential Return:£35.63

Time : 7/5/2015-11:39

Receipt No:O/142640973/0000923

[MereNovice]

I have looked right back to May 2012.  The only months that I haven't got the numbers for were July 2014 to November 2014.  Unless Mere can find these quickly, suggest we can let the rest go.  If anyone has the spreadsheet from then, it is just a matter of filtering on bet365 and looking for the £50 bets by month.

In that period I looked at we have incorrectly added in £210.23 in refunds (3 of the bets were less than £50 if the numbers look dodgy).  That includes the £50 from last night.

Considering we were effectively putting in play bets with no regard to the best price we ran exceptionally well.  There were definitely more winners than losers.  There are some right corkers in there, including hititng a 0-0 with the in play bet.  Unfortunately we were restricted to a tenner, but a 10/1 winner is a 10/1 winner.

I didn't record the indiividuals, so suggest we just take the £210.23 as a "fred" loser in the current month.     

 

All bets are available online.
2015 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eCEvN9MELsUxB81rHuWrfoX3zwIMPQQ205Lcjm3kbgU/edit#gid=7
2014 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UPxBmQMHbF_b3mGAv84lXhGZclIVDgAOV42ZSLjIiaQ/edit#gid=7
Pre-2014 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdHVrekx6T0REUXVNOWw5YTVWa0pWZGc#gid=7

However, it's pretty meaningless unless tikay checks his Bet365 account to see how many account adjustments were actually made.
I would have hoped that he might have spotted that several £50 bets hadn't been refunded at the time if that was the case.

Why does he need to check his account?  I assume bet 365 have been making no payments to him since 2012 and he just hasn't noticed.  I think it is a better assumption than assuming the refunds were made and we can just book the profit anyway.

The football results are readily available online.  We have recored all are bets we made and the P and L we declared.  It is just a question of finding the result and seeing if a refund was assumed in the spreadsheet.

I don't think that you should assume that.

[TightEnd]

Well, it's going to be quite a busy weekend for me .. here's my schedule:

Friday
------
08:45 - 11:00 F1 FP1
11:00 - 11:50 GP2 Practice
12:45 - 15:00 F1 FP2
14:50 - 15:30 GP2 Qualifying

Saturday
------
07:10 - 08:10 FE Practice 1
08:45 - 09:25 GP3 Qualifying
09:25 - 10:10 FE Practice 2
09:45 - 11:15 F1 FP3
10:45 - 12:15 FE Qualifying
12:00 - 14:35 F1 Qualifying
14:00 - 16:30 FE Race
14:35 - 16:05 GP2 Feature Race
16:15 - 17:15 GP3 Race 1

Sunday
------
08:20 - 09:20 GP3 Race 2
09:30 - 10:45 GP2 Sprint Race
11:30 - 16:15 F1 Race

Anyway, really looking for a profitable weekend this time considering the last race went so badly. Thankfully, the Spanish GP should, in theory, be a very dull and predictable race for those "in the know". There's not too much value out there at the moment, but I expect a lot Friday evening given the programme certain teams will be running during the first two practice sessions. A few bet recommendations:

Race Winner - Nico Rosberg @ just over 4/1 with the exchange (I asked for 5.5 on betfair, not matched yet). Quite simply too high, despite Hamilton's record so far this season. Suggest £10.

Winning Margin - 11-15.999 @ 13/2 with Blose. Big value here, I would consider this margin the favourite! Suggest £10.

Points Finish - Marcus Ericsson @ 9/4 with Blose. Why 9/4 when Nasr is 7/4?! Suggest £15.

Points Finish - Max Verstappen @ 9/5 with Blose. Why 9/5 when Sainz is 17/11?! Suggest £15.

Will keep watching the markets during the whole weekend. If anyone spots a Formula E market, let me know!

On the subject of Formula E, Nelson Piquet Jr. is now 2/1 to win the title, I think we got 10/1 earlier in the season 

 Placed (matched)
Back (Bet For)    Odds    Stake    Profit
Spanish GP
Nico Rosberg Winner    5.42    £10.00    
£44.16
Ref: 50110692909M Matched: 11:43 07-May-15

 1 single bet

    GP Spain - Race specials
    Race - winning margin
    Pick: 11 - 15.999 sec. 7.50

Total stake 10.00 GBP
Possible winnings 75.00 GBP

 2 single bets

    GP Spain - Race
    Top-10 bet (driver)
    Pick: Marcus Ericsson (SWE/Sauber) 3.25
    GP Spain - Race
    Top-10 bet (driver)
    Pick: Max Verstappen (NED/Toro Rosso) 2.80

Total stake 30.00 GBP
Possible winnings 90.75 GBP

formula e monaco markets are up on bwin

[The Camel]

I have looked right back to May 2012.  The only months that I haven't got the numbers for were July 2014 to November 2014.  Unless Mere can find these quickly, suggest we can let the rest go.  If anyone has the spreadsheet from then, it is just a matter of filtering on bet365 and looking for the £50 bets by month.

In that period I looked at we have incorrectly added in £210.23 in refunds (3 of the bets were less than £50 if the numbers look dodgy).  That includes the £50 from last night.

Considering we were effectively putting in play bets with no regard to the best price we ran exceptionally well.  There were definitely more winners than losers.  There are some right corkers in there, including hititng a 0-0 with the in play bet.  Unfortunately we were restricted to a tenner, but a 10/1 winner is a 10/1 winner.

I didn't record the indiividuals, so suggest we just take the £210.23 as a "fred" loser in the current month.     

 

All bets are available online.
2015 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eCEvN9MELsUxB81rHuWrfoX3zwIMPQQ205Lcjm3kbgU/edit#gid=7
2014 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UPxBmQMHbF_b3mGAv84lXhGZclIVDgAOV42ZSLjIiaQ/edit#gid=7
Pre-2014 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdHVrekx6T0REUXVNOWw5YTVWa0pWZGc#gid=7

However, it's pretty meaningless unless tikay checks his Bet365 account to see how many account adjustments were actually made.
I would have hoped that he might have spotted that several £50 bets hadn't been refunded at the time if that was the case.

Why does he need to check his account?  I assume bet 365 have been making no payments to him since 2012 and he just hasn't noticed.  I think it is a better assumption than assuming the refunds were made and we can just book the profit anyway.

The football results are readily available online.  We have recored all are bets we made and the P and L we declared.  It is just a question of finding the result and seeing if a refund was assumed in the spreadsheet.

I don't think that you should assume that.

I would bet the 1/20 the assumption doobs made is correct.

[TightEnd]

I have looked right back to May 2012.  The only months that I haven't got the numbers for were July 2014 to November 2014.  Unless Mere can find these quickly, suggest we can let the rest go.  If anyone has the spreadsheet from then, it is just a matter of filtering on bet365 and looking for the £50 bets by month.

In that period I looked at we have incorrectly added in £210.23 in refunds (3 of the bets were less than £50 if the numbers look dodgy).  That includes the £50 from last night.

Considering we were effectively putting in play bets with no regard to the best price we ran exceptionally well.  There were definitely more winners than losers.  There are some right corkers in there, including hititng a 0-0 with the in play bet.  Unfortunately we were restricted to a tenner, but a 10/1 winner is a 10/1 winner.

I didn't record the indiividuals, so suggest we just take the £210.23 as a "fred" loser in the current month.     

 

All bets are available online.
2015 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eCEvN9MELsUxB81rHuWrfoX3zwIMPQQ205Lcjm3kbgU/edit#gid=7
2014 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UPxBmQMHbF_b3mGAv84lXhGZclIVDgAOV42ZSLjIiaQ/edit#gid=7
Pre-2014 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdHVrekx6T0REUXVNOWw5YTVWa0pWZGc#gid=7

However, it's pretty meaningless unless tikay checks his Bet365 account to see how many account adjustments were actually made.
I would have hoped that he might have spotted that several £50 bets hadn't been refunded at the time if that was the case.

Why does he need to check his account?  I assume bet 365 have been making no payments to him since 2012 and he just hasn't noticed.  I think it is a better assumption than assuming the refunds were made and we can just book the profit anyway.

The football results are readily available online.  We have recored all are bets we made and the P and L we declared.  It is just a question of finding the result and seeing if a refund was assumed in the spreadsheet.

I don't think that you should assume that.

as far as i am concerned refunds were taking place well after 2012, but i can't prove that either way except to say that i would be fairly sure in the time that i have been placing bets i have not noticed a missing refund until yesterday. didn't always look for one though

as i don't have access to emails to do an audit trail, its ends up being a tough one to resolve for results admin.

[tikay]

I have looked right back to May 2012.  The only months that I haven't got the numbers for were July 2014 to November 2014.  Unless Mere can find these quickly, suggest we can let the rest go.  If anyone has the spreadsheet from then, it is just a matter of filtering on bet365 and looking for the £50 bets by month.

In that period I looked at we have incorrectly added in £210.23 in refunds (3 of the bets were less than £50 if the numbers look dodgy).  That includes the £50 from last night.

Considering we were effectively putting in play bets with no regard to the best price we ran exceptionally well.  There were definitely more winners than losers.  There are some right corkers in there, including hititng a 0-0 with the in play bet.  Unfortunately we were restricted to a tenner, but a 10/1 winner is a 10/1 winner.

I didn't record the indiividuals, so suggest we just take the £210.23 as a "fred" loser in the current month.     

 

This seems the realistic option to me - take a loss of £210 & move on.

I can give MereSuperlative or Doobs temporary access to the account to do an audit, but at best, we can only check back to the beginning of '14.

We had no e-Mails from them, incidentally, just that single Message which I chanced upon last night. It's a good job I check these things regularly, tbh.

Apologies for the inconvenience, I feel pretty bad about it, though Marky can GTFO.

[Doobs]

I have looked right back to May 2012.  The only months that I haven't got the numbers for were July 2014 to November 2014.  Unless Mere can find these quickly, suggest we can let the rest go.  If anyone has the spreadsheet from then, it is just a matter of filtering on bet365 and looking for the £50 bets by month.

In that period I looked at we have incorrectly added in £210.23 in refunds (3 of the bets were less than £50 if the numbers look dodgy).  That includes the £50 from last night.

Considering we were effectively putting in play bets with no regard to the best price we ran exceptionally well.  There were definitely more winners than losers.  There are some right corkers in there, including hititng a 0-0 with the in play bet.  Unfortunately we were restricted to a tenner, but a 10/1 winner is a 10/1 winner.

I didn't record the indiividuals, so suggest we just take the £210.23 as a "fred" loser in the current month.     

 

This seems the realistic option to me - take a loss of £210 & move on.

I can give MereSuperlative or Doobs temporary access to the account to do an audit, but at best, we can only check back to the beginning of '14.

We had no e-Mails from them, incidentally, just that single Message which I chanced upon last night. It's a good job I check these things regularly, tbh.

Apologies for the inconvenience, I feel pretty bad about it, though Marky can GTFO.

There are no possible refunds from Jan 2014 to June 2014.  So we only need to look back to July 2014 in the actual account.  £131 of the refunds I have assumed didn't happen are from January 2015 onwards, and they should be easy to check.  The only refunds that should be in dispute are one that may have happened in June 2012 (£50) and one that may have happend in May 2013 (£28.57). 

I suggest somebody checks what happened in Dec 14 and Feb 2015 first

[tikay]

I have looked right back to May 2012.  The only months that I haven't got the numbers for were July 2014 to November 2014.  Unless Mere can find these quickly, suggest we can let the rest go.  If anyone has the spreadsheet from then, it is just a matter of filtering on bet365 and looking for the £50 bets by month.

In that period I looked at we have incorrectly added in £210.23 in refunds (3 of the bets were less than £50 if the numbers look dodgy).  That includes the £50 from last night.

Considering we were effectively putting in play bets with no regard to the best price we ran exceptionally well.  There were definitely more winners than losers.  There are some right corkers in there, including hititng a 0-0 with the in play bet.  Unfortunately we were restricted to a tenner, but a 10/1 winner is a 10/1 winner.

I didn't record the indiividuals, so suggest we just take the £210.23 as a "fred" loser in the current month.     

 

This seems the realistic option to me - take a loss of £210 & move on.

I can give MereSuperlative or Doobs temporary access to the account to do an audit, but at best, we can only check back to the beginning of '14.

We had no e-Mails from them, incidentally, just that single Message which I chanced upon last night. It's a good job I check these things regularly, tbh.

Apologies for the inconvenience, I feel pretty bad about it, though Marky can GTFO.

There are no possible refunds from Jan 2014 to June 2014.  So we only need to look back to July 2014 in the actual account.  £131 of the refunds I have assumed didn't happen are from January 2015 onwards, and they should be easy to check.  The only refunds that should be in dispute are one that may have happened in June 2012 (£50) and one that may have happend in May 2013 (£28.57). 

I suggest somebody checks what happened in Dec 14 and Feb 2015 first

Thanks Doobs - that is now being checked.

[Tal]

[JoeBeevers]

Keith how much do you want at 1/20? 

I had a restricted account that had received the same email but still got the £50 risk free in play refunds for a while after. Then one day I didn't get the refund, queried it, and they refrrered me to the email. 

[TightEnd]

All the final polls



there has been a marked movement to Labour in these polls. many of the phone polls had Con 3% ahead up to the last 48 hours

the upshot of this is interesting

either the polls are wrong or the betting markets are wrong

Con needs to be 2-3% ahead to have most seats on Uniform national swing (takes fewer votes to elect a Labour MP) . they aren't. if Con does get most seats its outside the pollsters margin of error.

Con is 1/5 most seats, Lab most seats touched 9/2 yesterday and is still 4/1 in places

so the market is telling you that the series of individual battles are in the Con favour in the marginals and that unifrom national swing can be torn up. Of course we know that UNS as an indicator is much less reliable in an era of tactical voting/local battles, so this has some intuitive support

in 2010 on the day of polling spread markets had Con 100 ahead of Lab and the result was +49, so it isn't necessarily the case that the spreads are an infallible indicator either.

it will be interesting to see how this all plays out