Tips for Tikay

[MattyHollis]

I've put on a £5 spread bet, selling on Kvyat/Massa at 2.

Good spot in my opinion. It's 10 points to whoever finishes ahead (should certainly be Massa, barring retirement), and then 2 points per positional difference. Would recommend it

So by selling at 2 Kyvat is basically getting 2 points to start with plus or minus however the race pans out?

Should Massa finish ahead one place then we win 10 points overall? Should Kyvat win by one place we lose a total of 14 points?

Kyat is fav.  If Massa wins by 1 place you win 14 points.  If Kyat wins by a place it's a 10 point loss.  Beware retirements with this bet as one guy can win by 15 places.  Looks good bet though I agree.

Thanks I got it the wrong way round then!

Appreciate that, i'm on the spread, let's hope Kyvat is the man that retires then eh

[MattyHollis]

Would seem a shame not to have Tikay looking at Watford results for the 3rd year on the trot, so I've been looking at the handicap markets.

It seems no matter how many established top European league players Watford buy their relegation odds remain unchanged.  The Spread firms are spitting on them allowing you to buy at 35 points!  Handicap market seems most fun way to play at 15/1 they get a walloping 48 point start.  I am piling in the spread but for handicap I can see them finishing between 10th and 15th which should win with that start.  Recommend £50 for the season sweat.

To clarify squad, they have all of last years players (Vydra, Deeney, Abdi, Angella, Cathcart all signed 4/5 year renewal contracts).  They've declined to pursue Guediora after his loan (which surprised me) and sold McGugan (who didn't play).

The additions:  

An entire new defence of Holebas, Prodl, Britos, Nyom.   All regulars in top league teams last year (Roma, Bremen, Napoli, Granada).  Defence was unquestionably our soft spot last year.   These provide competition for Paredes, Cathcart, Angella, Layun, Hoban.

New defensive midfield unit in Capoue (Spurs) and Behrami (Hamburg).  Backed up by Watson.

New attacking midfield options in Jurado (Spartak Moscow) and Beghuis (AZ Alkmar).   To complement Abdi/Vydra/Forrestieri/Anya/Dyer (back in favour)

Attack left unchanged.   Flores will play 4-2-3-1 with the 1 being Deeney, with Ighalo and Vydra available to support or fill in in the "3" behind him.

I suspect there will be one more signing.

I don't see this as a relegation squad and think they will score goals at this level.  I cannot fathom why this squad is still behind Norwich, Sunderland and Bournemouth in the betting.

Which spreads are 35 points - I'm struggling to find the market on Sporting Index?

[MattyHollis]

Oh fuck that cannot be good for the spread!! Out of formation and probably drive through penalty or something?

[DungBeetle]

Force Indiae off the line like rockets though - running 7/8

[DungBeetle]

Would seem a shame not to have Tikay looking at Watford results for the 3rd year on the trot, so I've been looking at the handicap markets.

It seems no matter how many established top European league players Watford buy their relegation odds remain unchanged.  The Spread firms are spitting on them allowing you to buy at 35 points!  Handicap market seems most fun way to play at 15/1 they get a walloping 48 point start.  I am piling in the spread but for handicap I can see them finishing between 10th and 15th which should win with that start.  Recommend £50 for the season sweat.

To clarify squad, they have all of last years players (Vydra, Deeney, Abdi, Angella, Cathcart all signed 4/5 year renewal contracts).  They've declined to pursue Guediora after his loan (which surprised me) and sold McGugan (who didn't play).

The additions:  

An entire new defence of Holebas, Prodl, Britos, Nyom.   All regulars in top league teams last year (Roma, Bremen, Napoli, Granada).  Defence was unquestionably our soft spot last year.   These provide competition for Paredes, Cathcart, Angella, Layun, Hoban.

New defensive midfield unit in Capoue (Spurs) and Behrami (Hamburg).  Backed up by Watson.

New attacking midfield options in Jurado (Spartak Moscow) and Beghuis (AZ Alkmar).   To complement Abdi/Vydra/Forrestieri/Anya/Dyer (back in favour)

Attack left unchanged.   Flores will play 4-2-3-1 with the 1 being Deeney, with Ighalo and Vydra available to support or fill in in the "3" behind him.

I suspect there will be one more signing.

I don't see this as a relegation squad and think they will score goals at this level.  I cannot fathom why this squad is still behind Norwich, Sunderland and Bournemouth in the betting.

Which spreads are 35 points - I'm struggling to find the market on Sporting Index?

http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/football/domestic-long-term-markets/group_a.8946c8a1-49e8-4593-865a-309775a53b01/premier-league-points-2015-16

[MattyHollis]

Force Indiae off the line like rockets though - running 7/8

Yeah great lap for them, 5th and 8th. Assuming the Kyvat/Massa is now damage limitations lol!

[MattyHollis]

Would seem a shame not to have Tikay looking at Watford results for the 3rd year on the trot, so I've been looking at the handicap markets.

It seems no matter how many established top European league players Watford buy their relegation odds remain unchanged.  The Spread firms are spitting on them allowing you to buy at 35 points!  Handicap market seems most fun way to play at 15/1 they get a walloping 48 point start.  I am piling in the spread but for handicap I can see them finishing between 10th and 15th which should win with that start.  Recommend £50 for the season sweat.

To clarify squad, they have all of last years players (Vydra, Deeney, Abdi, Angella, Cathcart all signed 4/5 year renewal contracts).  They've declined to pursue Guediora after his loan (which surprised me) and sold McGugan (who didn't play).

The additions:  

An entire new defence of Holebas, Prodl, Britos, Nyom.   All regulars in top league teams last year (Roma, Bremen, Napoli, Granada).  Defence was unquestionably our soft spot last year.   These provide competition for Paredes, Cathcart, Angella, Layun, Hoban.

New defensive midfield unit in Capoue (Spurs) and Behrami (Hamburg).  Backed up by Watson.

New attacking midfield options in Jurado (Spartak Moscow) and Beghuis (AZ Alkmar).   To complement Abdi/Vydra/Forrestieri/Anya/Dyer (back in favour)

Attack left unchanged.   Flores will play 4-2-3-1 with the 1 being Deeney, with Ighalo and Vydra available to support or fill in in the "3" behind him.

I suspect there will be one more signing.

I don't see this as a relegation squad and think they will score goals at this level.  I cannot fathom why this squad is still behind Norwich, Sunderland and Bournemouth in the betting.

Which spreads are 35 points - I'm struggling to find the market on Sporting Index?

http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/football/domestic-long-term-markets/group_a.8946c8a1-49e8-4593-865a-309775a53b01/premier-league-points-2015-16

Thanks again.

[Doobs]

Would seem a shame not to have Tikay looking at Watford results for the 3rd year on the trot, so I've been looking at the handicap markets.

It seems no matter how many established top European league players Watford buy their relegation odds remain unchanged.  The Spread firms are spitting on them allowing you to buy at 35 points!  Handicap market seems most fun way to play at 15/1 they get a walloping 48 point start.  I am piling in the spread but for handicap I can see them finishing between 10th and 15th which should win with that start.  Recommend £50 for the season sweat.

To clarify squad, they have all of last years players (Vydra, Deeney, Abdi, Angella, Cathcart all signed 4/5 year renewal contracts).  They've declined to pursue Guediora after his loan (which surprised me) and sold McGugan (who didn't play).

The additions:  

An entire new defence of Holebas, Prodl, Britos, Nyom.   All regulars in top league teams last year (Roma, Bremen, Napoli, Granada).  Defence was unquestionably our soft spot last year.   These provide competition for Paredes, Cathcart, Angella, Layun, Hoban.

New defensive midfield unit in Capoue (Spurs) and Behrami (Hamburg).  Backed up by Watson.

New attacking midfield options in Jurado (Spartak Moscow) and Beghuis (AZ Alkmar).   To complement Abdi/Vydra/Forrestieri/Anya/Dyer (back in favour)

Attack left unchanged.   Flores will play 4-2-3-1 with the 1 being Deeney, with Ighalo and Vydra available to support or fill in in the "3" behind him.

I suspect there will be one more signing.

I don't see this as a relegation squad and think they will score goals at this level.  I cannot fathom why this squad is still behind Norwich, Sunderland and Bournemouth in the betting.

I'd definitely back them each way.  I think you need 100 to win and 90 for 4th going by the last couple of years.  Given all the points you get added, I think 4th is much more likely.  I don't think 15th is ever going to give you the win, and not even convinced 11th would.

I haven't looked at the handicaps, so don't know which firm is best.  +49 in one could be worse than +46 in another.

[DungBeetle]

Force Indiae off the line like rockets though - running 7/8

Yeah great lap for them, 5th and 8th. Assuming the Kyvat/Massa is now damage limitations lol!

Just need Kyvat to retire and it's payday

[MattyHollis]

Force Indiae off the line like rockets though - running 7/8

Yeah great lap for them, 5th and 8th. Assuming the Kyvat/Massa is now damage limitations lol!

Just need Kyvat to retire and it's payday

Ha true! He got told to let Ricciardio through which was good but Massa and Hamilton nearly took each other off the track lol.

[DungBeetle]

Would seem a shame not to have Tikay looking at Watford results for the 3rd year on the trot, so I've been looking at the handicap markets.

It seems no matter how many established top European league players Watford buy their relegation odds remain unchanged.  The Spread firms are spitting on them allowing you to buy at 35 points!  Handicap market seems most fun way to play at 15/1 they get a walloping 48 point start.  I am piling in the spread but for handicap I can see them finishing between 10th and 15th which should win with that start.  Recommend £50 for the season sweat.

To clarify squad, they have all of last years players (Vydra, Deeney, Abdi, Angella, Cathcart all signed 4/5 year renewal contracts).  They've declined to pursue Guediora after his loan (which surprised me) and sold McGugan (who didn't play).

The additions:  

An entire new defence of Holebas, Prodl, Britos, Nyom.   All regulars in top league teams last year (Roma, Bremen, Napoli, Granada).  Defence was unquestionably our soft spot last year.   These provide competition for Paredes, Cathcart, Angella, Layun, Hoban.

New defensive midfield unit in Capoue (Spurs) and Behrami (Hamburg).  Backed up by Watson.

New attacking midfield options in Jurado (Spartak Moscow) and Beghuis (AZ Alkmar).   To complement Abdi/Vydra/Forrestieri/Anya/Dyer (back in favour)

Attack left unchanged.   Flores will play 4-2-3-1 with the 1 being Deeney, with Ighalo and Vydra available to support or fill in in the "3" behind him.

I suspect there will be one more signing.

I don't see this as a relegation squad and think they will score goals at this level.  I cannot fathom why this squad is still behind Norwich, Sunderland and Bournemouth in the betting.

I'd definitely back them each way.  I think you need 100 to win and 90 for 4th going by the last couple of years.  Given all the points you get added, I think 4th is much more likely.  I don't think 15th is ever going to give you the win, and not even convinced 11th would.

I haven't looked at the handicaps, so don't know which firm is best.  +49 in one could be worse than +46 in another.

I'm expecting them to shoot the lights out and get 50 points, but I may well be getting over excited so perhaps £25 e/w is indeed best.  I guess my point is the odds haven't really changed after 9/10 solid looking signings so they are value - how that is best taken advantage of needs to be debated.

[DungBeetle]

That liability Maldonado has just crashed into Perez. 

[MattyHollis]

That liability Maldonado has just crashed into Perez. 

Yes and just got a drive through penalty, poor Perez lucky to still be racing, sadly be a struggle to make points from here though

Grosjean also got a penalty for fucking Massa up out of the pits, that's no consolation for Massa though !!

[DungBeetle]

59 degrees on track in Hungary. When do we consider betting on Vettel and the red lot's tyre management?

Looks like a good call Tal.

[DungBeetle]

That liability Maldonado has just crashed into Perez. 

Yes and just got a drive through penalty, poor Perez lucky to still be racing, sadly be a struggle to make points from here though

Grosjean also got a penalty for fucking Massa up out of the pits, that's no consolation for Massa though !!

Dunno - Perez only 10 secs behind Alonso in 10th even after being wiped out.