Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

west ham are odds against to beat newly promoted bournemouth who spin have doing worse than leicester, same thing?

liverpool?

open that one up....should they been odds on?

[cheapwetsuit]

I was expecting a much better performance from Brandle, but even so, I'm guessing he won't be 100/1 tomorrow morning. The sweat is still on, but Kelderman, Boom and van Avermaet are looking like the top 3.

He's actually 250/1 in one place (miles out of line with the others). Going back in?

Should be 1000/1 after today's performance. Brandle now outside top 10 and about 30sec behind 3rd place. gg

[MattyHollis]

Any thoughts on the "Going For Goals" market here:

https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/football/domestic-long-term-markets/group_a.b388b209-a85b-401f-bc0e-69503fbd3c54/premier-league-specials-2015-16

460 seems too high as a selling price to me?

2010/11 : 350 (9.2pw) 7-1 highest result for 50pts
2011/12 : 510 (13.4pw) 8-2 highest result for 100pts
2012/13 : 470 (12.4pw) 8-0 highest result for 100pts
2013/14 : 455 (12.0pw) 7-0 highest result for 50pts
2014/15 : 350 (9.2pw) 8-0 highest result for 100pts


Anyone any further thoughts on the 460-480 line that Peter mentioned?

After week 1 worth 5 points and the league imo being tighter than ever, is there much downside on a sell?

[Peter-27]

Any thoughts on the "Going For Goals" market here:

https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/football/domestic-long-term-markets/group_a.b388b209-a85b-401f-bc0e-69503fbd3c54/premier-league-specials-2015-16

460 seems too high as a selling price to me?

2010/11 : 350 (9.2pw) 7-1 highest result for 50pts
2011/12 : 510 (13.4pw) 8-2 highest result for 100pts
2012/13 : 470 (12.4pw) 8-0 highest result for 100pts
2013/14 : 455 (12.0pw) 7-0 highest result for 50pts
2014/15 : 350 (9.2pw) 8-0 highest result for 100pts


Anyone any further thoughts on the 460-480 line that Peter mentioned?

After week 1 worth 5 points and the league imo being tighter than ever, is there much downside on a sell?

Well, I'm planning a £20 spread bet based on what I've heard so far. Can always cash out for a small loss should it start to look a bit iffy.

[The Camel]

Any thoughts on the "Going For Goals" market here:

https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/football/domestic-long-term-markets/group_a.b388b209-a85b-401f-bc0e-69503fbd3c54/premier-league-specials-2015-16

460 seems too high as a selling price to me?

2010/11 : 350 (9.2pw) 7-1 highest result for 50pts
2011/12 : 510 (13.4pw) 8-2 highest result for 100pts
2012/13 : 470 (12.4pw) 8-0 highest result for 100pts
2013/14 : 455 (12.0pw) 7-0 highest result for 50pts
2014/15 : 350 (9.2pw) 8-0 highest result for 100pts


Anyone any further thoughts on the 460-480 line that Peter mentioned?

After week 1 worth 5 points and the league imo being tighter than ever, is there much downside on a sell?

Well, I'm planning a £20 spread bet based on what I've heard so far. Can always cash out for a small loss should it start to look a bit iffy.

£20?

Do you realise if City score 8 next week, your "small loss" will be about £950.

To be in line with your F1 staking you shouldn't sell this for more than £1.

[arbboy]

It's such a weird bet selling this because you are effectively betting on big teams being motivated to put in seven or eight goals when they are already up 6-0.  The whole bet pretty much comes down to three or four games a season.

[MattyHollis]

Any thoughts on the "Going For Goals" market here:

https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/football/domestic-long-term-markets/group_a.b388b209-a85b-401f-bc0e-69503fbd3c54/premier-league-specials-2015-16

460 seems too high as a selling price to me?

2010/11 : 350 (9.2pw) 7-1 highest result for 50pts
2011/12 : 510 (13.4pw) 8-2 highest result for 100pts
2012/13 : 470 (12.4pw) 8-0 highest result for 100pts
2013/14 : 455 (12.0pw) 7-0 highest result for 50pts
2014/15 : 350 (9.2pw) 8-0 highest result for 100pts


Anyone any further thoughts on the 460-480 line that Peter mentioned?

After week 1 worth 5 points and the league imo being tighter than ever, is there much downside on a sell?

Well, I'm planning a £20 spread bet based on what I've heard so far. Can always cash out for a small loss should it start to look a bit iffy.

£20?

Do you realise if City score 8 next week, your "small loss" will be about £950.

To be in line with your F1 staking you shouldn't sell this for more than £1.

Ha was going to say the exact same, £20 a point a small loss cashout wouldn't really be there if a 'bad' start!

[The Camel]

It's such a weird bet selling this because you are effectively betting on big teams being motivated to put in seven or eight goals when they are already up 6-0.  The whole bet pretty much comes down to three or four games a season.

Markets like these are usually pitched a tiny bit higher than the expectation because they expect most action from buyers.

However to profit from this bias you need two things.

1. Balls of steel.

2. A pretty huge bankroll.

I don't doubt Peter's strength of testicle, but somehow think he falls short on requirement 2.

[Peter-27]

It's such a weird bet selling this because you are effectively betting on big teams being motivated to put in seven or eight goals when they are already up 6-0.  The whole bet pretty much comes down to three or four games a season.

Markets like these are usually pitched a tiny bit higher than the expectation because they expect most action from buyers.

However to profit from this bias you need two things.

1. Balls of steel.

2. A pretty huge bankroll.

I don't doubt Peter's strength of testicle, but somehow think he falls short on requirement 2.

Haha 

I make no secret that I do struggle with bet sizing! Hmmm, what do we assume the maximum result could be? Obviously every game for the rest of the season could be 8-0, but realistically that's not going to happen ..

[arbboy]

I think you would have to assume it could make up at 1000.  Unlikely but definitely possible.

[Chompy]

Ripon tomorrow is soft ground, and recently rained-on soft ground; my favourite kind of soft ground.

There should be a low bias in the big sprints and we have to play the 3.00 each-way with Betfair Clownbook, as they're paying five places.

The field will split here and it's possible we're looking at five places from around 12 or 13 down our side of the course if things work out as expected.

We want something drawn low, that likes soft ground, and ideally likes Ripon.

£25EW Right Touch 7-1
£20EW The Hooded Claw 14-1

They've completely ducked Fast Shot, so back that at 22-1 with Joke please.

£15EW Fast Shit 22-1

[TightEnd]

limited to £3 and £7 ew with betfairsb

do you want me to try anywhere else without the 5 places?

[TightEnd]

Fast Shot22/13:00 Ripon - 15/08/2015
Each Way
Stake £30.00
Estimated Return:£442.50
Total Stake: £30.00
Potential Return: £442.50

1/4 1,2,3,4

[Chompy]

Yup, 8-1 Right Touch WH and 16-1 THC same firm.

[TightEnd]

15 Aug 2015 - 3:00 Ripon - Win

Best Odds Guaranteed!
Tip It

Right Touch @ 8/1  EW @ 1/4 1-4

Stake : £36.00 (£18.00 x 2)
Estimated Returns : £
216.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001387/F
Single

15 Aug 2015 - 3:00 Ripon - Win

Best Odds Guaranteed!
Tip It

The Hooded Claw @ 16/1  EW @ 1/4 1-4

Stake : £33.00 (£16.50 x 2)
Estimated Returns : £
363.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001388/F
Total Stake : £69.00

£7.15 right toubh 5 places
£3.55 hooded claw 5 places

e/w on with betfair don'tbetwithuseventhoughwehavegonebesttermsbooksowhybother