Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

Washington +4 or Washington to win at 7/4?

If you're trying to lose, you don't leave it to chance, do you? How do teams that want to lose normally lose? Silly question I know, but is there a preference between those two markets?

[MattyHollis]

http://www.oddschecker.com/greyhounds/romford/21:40/winner

Bet Gleneagle Tina in this if poss, 6/1+, too big a price here.

[TightEnd]

Washington +4 or Washington to win at 7/4?

If you're trying to lose, you don't leave it to chance, do you? How do teams that want to lose normally lose? Silly question I know, but is there a preference between those two markets?

the outright i suppose

conservative game plans, resting key players, trying out fringe players will get it done

you might have the reverse in philly-giants where the philly players hated their coach (some called him out before he went, some after), have got rid of him and now have to perform because new potential coaches will be watching.

week 17 motivations are very different game by game

[Doobs]

Just one for the future re ew betting 1/4 1234.  Tough to ever have an edge backing ew in a 36 runner field ew with those terms.  Setting fire to a lot of the edge you have in the win part of the bet on the place bet 99% of the time in this spot.

Think grand national in April.  36-40 runner event.  Every book offers 5 places in an identical type of price make up book and still makes it pay.  When firms offer 4 places they literally have it off and punters betting ew on those firms get royally screwed long term.

We wouldn't be betting Clipper for example at 5/4 to place in the first 4 as a seperate bet if a place only market was being offered.  If there was a betfair place market for it tight to 400% the place price would be closer to 7/4 than 5/4 based on the outright prices as they are.

If a horse is 50/1 in a 36 runner field, then quarter first 4 is value though.  

[TightEnd]

http://www.oddschecker.com/greyhounds/romford/21:40/winner

Bet Gleneagle Tina in this if poss, 6/1+, too big a price here.

tell us why please. ty.


restricted

Gleneagle Tina Romford 21:40 Winner
6/1
Total Stake: £16.67
Potential Returns: £116.69

[Tal]

Just one for the future re ew betting 1/4 1234.  Tough to ever have an edge backing ew in a 36 runner field ew with those terms.  Setting fire to a lot of the edge you have in the win part of the bet on the place bet 99% of the time in this spot.

Think grand national in April.  36-40 runner event.  Every book offers 5 places in an identical type of price make up book and still makes it pay.  When firms offer 4 places they literally have it off and punters betting ew on those firms get royally screwed long term.

We wouldn't be betting Clipper for example at 5/4 to place in the first 4 as a seperate bet if a place only market was being offered.  If there was a betfair place market for it tight to 400% the place price would be closer to 7/4 than 5/4 based on the outright prices as they are.

If a horse is 50/1 in a 36 runner field, then quarter first 4 is value though.  

When you get chance, would you explain this, please? Here or on the maths thread.

Sock puppets appreciated

[MattyHollis]

I know it seems like i've put up a few tonight but there really is a lot looking like value for me tonight.

I've also added

10.11 Never Your Fault (Standout 11/2 with Laddies) - back to running his best and capable of sub 24 seconds round Romford.

10.26 Lenson Tiggy (3/1 with sky but 11/4 elsewhere is fine) - Too much difference in price between Tiggy and Fav in 6 for me, was unlucky last week and drawn a lot better this week.

If you choose to add them to the portfolio tonight then great - I will be, but up to you Tighty of course.

[MattyHollis]

http://www.oddschecker.com/greyhounds/romford/21:40/winner

Bet Gleneagle Tina in this if poss, 6/1+, too big a price here.

tell us why please. ty.


restricted

Gleneagle Tina Romford 21:40 Winner
6/1
Total Stake: £16.67
Potential Returns: £116.69

Certainly, runs well at the track on previous visits capable of winning from off the pace, with a chance to lead the inside and get first run with hopefully the favourite behind us I can't have us going off at that price.

[Tal]

Washington +4 or Washington to win at 7/4?

If you're trying to lose, you don't leave it to chance, do you? How do teams that want to lose normally lose? Silly question I know, but is there a preference between those two markets?

the outright i suppose

conservative game plans, resting key players, trying out fringe players will get it done

...

Good enough for me.

7/4 Billy Mountains then. How much? £80? More?

Needs to be a decent bet, by the sound of it.

[TightEnd]

Washington +4 or Washington to win at 7/4?

If you're trying to lose, you don't leave it to chance, do you? How do teams that want to lose normally lose? Silly question I know, but is there a preference between those two markets?

the outright i suppose

conservative game plans, resting key players, trying out fringe players will get it done

you might have the reverse in philly-giants where the philly players hated their coach (some called him out before he went, some after), have got rid of him and now have to perform because new potential coaches will be watching.

week 17 motivations are very different game by game

Good enough for me.

7/4 Billy Mountains then. How much? £80? More?

Needs to be a decent bet, by the sound of it.

awaiting the boss to yes/no.

got a couple of days yet.

[Tal]

Washington +4 or Washington to win at 7/4?

If you're trying to lose, you don't leave it to chance, do you? How do teams that want to lose normally lose? Silly question I know, but is there a preference between those two markets?

the outright i suppose

conservative game plans, resting key players, trying out fringe players will get it done

you might have the reverse in philly-giants where the philly players hated their coach (some called him out before he went, some after), have got rid of him and now have to perform because new potential coaches will be watching.

week 17 motivations are very different game by game

Good enough for me.

7/4 Billy Mountains then. How much? £80? More?

Needs to be a decent bet, by the sound of it.

awaiting the boss to yes/no.

got a couple of days yet.

Odds Shark says Washington has had 71% of the bets.

http://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/washington-dallas-odds-january-3-2016

Are you expecting the mug money to come in for America's Team, even given the recent form of the Redskins?

[TightEnd]

Washington +4 or Washington to win at 7/4?

If you're trying to lose, you don't leave it to chance, do you? How do teams that want to lose normally lose? Silly question I know, but is there a preference between those two markets?

the outright i suppose

conservative game plans, resting key players, trying out fringe players will get it done

you might have the reverse in philly-giants where the philly players hated their coach (some called him out before he went, some after), have got rid of him and now have to perform because new potential coaches will be watching.

week 17 motivations are very different game by game

Good enough for me.

7/4 Billy Mountains then. How much? £80? More?

Needs to be a decent bet, by the sound of it.

awaiting the boss to yes/no.

got a couple of days yet.

Odds Shark says Washington has had 71% of the bets.

http://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/washington-dallas-odds-january-3-2016

Are you expecting the mug money to come in for America's Team, even given the recent form of the Redskins?

It normally does, but might not this week

Dallas, traditionally, bad betting favourites and bad home favourites as get overbet by square money.

[Doobs]

Just one for the future re ew betting 1/4 1234.  Tough to ever have an edge backing ew in a 36 runner field ew with those terms.  Setting fire to a lot of the edge you have in the win part of the bet on the place bet 99% of the time in this spot.

Think grand national in April.  36-40 runner event.  Every book offers 5 places in an identical type of price make up book and still makes it pay.  When firms offer 4 places they literally have it off and punters betting ew on those firms get royally screwed long term.

We wouldn't be betting Clipper for example at 5/4 to place in the first 4 as a seperate bet if a place only market was being offered.  If there was a betfair place market for it tight to 400% the place price would be closer to 7/4 than 5/4 based on the outright prices as they are.

If a horse is 50/1 in a 36 runner field, then quarter first 4 is value though.  

When you get chance, would you explain this, please? Here or on the maths thread.

Sock puppets appreciated

Got to get kids to bed, but say we think the right percentage to win is 0.02.  Simple maths as no time.  2nd, 3rd and 4th should be around the same.  So odds on first 4 is 0.02x4=0.08.  That works out at 11.5/1.  

Bit more complex.  The reality is it should be a bit shorter than that as the chance of 2nd should be slightly better than first, 3rd slightly better than 2nd, and 4th slightly better than 3rd.  You can guess the chance of any dog finishing 18th is about 35/1.  So the odds between first and 18th should gradually move between 50/1 and 35/1.  So a bit of guesswork should tell you that 2nd should be about 48/1, 3rd 46/1 and 4th 45/1.  Will be very close to those numbers anyway if the real chance is 50/1.  This all assumes the win price should be 50/1.  Obviously it becomes better if the real odds should be less than 50/1.

Will post sock puppet later when on pc.  

[MattyHollis]

Oi Oi 7/1 Sawdust Shaggy off the mark!

[arbboy]

great start matty.

CLipper massively under 4/5 on bf if you can get the 4/5

http://www.oddschecker.com/greyhounds/romford/20:18/winner