Tips for Tikay

[bergeroo]

1-0 up after 70 minutes in a two legged game and Mignolet booked for timewasting. Pretty funny.

[arbboy]

Anyone fancy a lotto syndicate tomorrow for the £50m?  We did one for the scoop 6.  This is probably more value with no ego issues regarding selecting numbers.

[vegaslover]

1-0 up after 70 minutes in a two legged game and Mignolet booked for timewasting. Pretty funny.

Probably laughing to himself at how shit Stoke were. Good job Firminho can't shoot for shit

[arbboy]

Pros knew!

[atdc21]

lolapro

[Archer]

pieced together from various twitter people there was a big "pros" on liverpool/"mugs" on stoke bias in markets for the game today

our old favourite: liverpool shot data/shots on target being cited as the reason for their attractiveness

someoneone countered that liverpool shot data was skewed by coutinho taking speculative 30yd punts all season long. ie low quality data

fwiw. cue liverpool hosing up

You need to follow Goff less and read less of his nonsense.  If goff knew what he was talking about he wouldn't be head of football at coral and equally he wouldn't tell everyone on his twitter feed what his company pay him to discover for their benefit not the general public's.  How can the wagons ever be smashing into Stoke in this spot and, more importantly, how can the pros ever be backing lolapool at this price with this team?

I would love to know the P+L if you had laid every team at 6/4 or shorter at the Brit since they entered the EPl in all competitions.  I would imagine you would be shelling peas if you had without having the data to hand.

The other factor to consider.  If you look at the 'to qualify' market today Stoke are a sea of blue even though they have drifted like a barge for tonight's game.  I can't imagine many wagons get involved in this market hence why the market move has gone the 'correct' way as the huge weight of wagon cash isn't there in that market to hold up the stoke price.

You are absolutely spot on. I've quickly filtered some data and for PL only going back to 2010/2011 there are 38 spots when away team was 6/4 or shorter playing at Stoke. If you had laid them all to a liability of £100 you would have 27 winning bets and a total  profit of £1457.

For league games Liverpool have been in the range of 2.1-2.3 for 5 of the last 6 seasons and at 1.67 in 13/14

[nellberg]

Big Bash tomorrow morning, Stars v Hurricanes, one of the bowling match bets with Korral is Faulkner v Boyce.

Faulkner generally bowls at the start and end of the innings, so therefore in theory has a solid chance of getting a wicket up front with the new ball and then buying a few late doors when the slog is on. In his T20 career he's been prolific, with 139 wickets from 116 games. However, he's out of form at the moment. He's got 1 wicket so far in the tournament from his 4 games, and has been leaking runs at a rate that saw him only bowl 1 expensive over against the Sixers and 3 expensive overs against the Renegades. He is no guarantee to bowl his 4 over quota tomorrow, as they have plenty of options with the ball. He is 4/5 favourite.

Boyce is a legspinner who's bowl in the middle overs of games. They've held him back a little this year so he's bowled as late as the 16/17th overs, but he'll not bowl right at the death. Despite bowling in the middle overs, he's still managed to pick wickets up at a tidy rate, 42 in 31 matches. He's also in great form at the moment. He has 10 wickets from his 19 overs in this season's competition, making him the joint-leading wicket-taker in the tournament so far. He's taken at least 2 wickets on 4/5 occasions he's bowled, on the other occasion he took 1 wicket. He managed to take 2/22 against The Heat when the boundary was tiny and every bowler was getting smashed out of the ground, tomorrow he'll be bowling at the MCG which has a large outfield so (in theory) that favours spinners for getting catches on the boundary. He is the even money underdog.

At some stage Faulkner will regain form and be a wicket-taking threat again, but even if he was in form he shouldn't be favourite against Boyce. Given their current form, the prices are wrong imo.

[tikay]

^^^^

Loving your Big Bash analysis, Nelly, keep it coming.

[arbboy]

pieced together from various twitter people there was a big "pros" on liverpool/"mugs" on stoke bias in markets for the game today

our old favourite: liverpool shot data/shots on target being cited as the reason for their attractiveness

someoneone countered that liverpool shot data was skewed by coutinho taking speculative 30yd punts all season long. ie low quality data

fwiw. cue liverpool hosing up

You need to follow Goff less and read less of his nonsense.  If goff knew what he was talking about he wouldn't be head of football at coral and equally he wouldn't tell everyone on his twitter feed what his company pay him to discover for their benefit not the general public's.  How can the wagons ever be smashing into Stoke in this spot and, more importantly, how can the pros ever be backing lolapool at this price with this team?

I would love to know the P+L if you had laid every team at 6/4 or shorter at the Brit since they entered the EPl in all competitions.  I would imagine you would be shelling peas if you had without having the data to hand.

The other factor to consider.  If you look at the 'to qualify' market today Stoke are a sea of blue even though they have drifted like a barge for tonight's game.  I can't imagine many wagons get involved in this market hence why the market move has gone the 'correct' way as the huge weight of wagon cash isn't there in that market to hold up the stoke price.

You are absolutely spot on. I've quickly filtered some data and for PL only going back to 2010/2011 there are 38 spots when away team was 6/4 or shorter playing at Stoke. If you had laid them all to a liability of £100 you would have 27 winning bets and a total  profit of £1457.

For league games Liverpool have been in the range of 2.1-2.3 for 5 of the last 6 seasons and at 1.67 in 13/14

Pro's/betfair know though on the off.  Stoke's strongest ever team and the scousers as poor as ever team in that time frame resting their £30m star man but the pros wanted to be on even though all the judges were smashing stoke up in the 'to qualify' market where no mugs ever play because they can't afford to tie their cash up for 3 weeks to get an edge because they are skint.  All the pros are backing the scousers though.  lolzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.  They won though so they are right!

You can't make money on the epl because the price is always right.  lolzzzzzzzzzzz  Why does Tony Bloom bet on the epl if the price is always right?  Why do the only 3 guys i know who bet football for a living make more money on the epl than any other league in the world if it is so hard to beat?  Maybe because the mug cash constantly puts up prices that are wrong.

[arbboy]

I am a bit 'stella'd' after a mini session at the local with fellow pissed off stokie's so i won't post anymore but all my posts are factual.  Speak tomorrow when i am sober.  Mrs Bandit is currently making me more stella'd as i am consuming her 'xmas box'.  tytyty sweetie you are an angel. It has been a long night.  Go on stoke!  At least Sunderland won at the weekend to pay for it at 6/4 when they should have been odds on.  Things could be worse.  EPL ftw.

note for tikay - i wasn't on the source last night when you replied to my darts post.  I think u mis understood the point i was making about the %'s.  I was trying to say there are a bigger % of mugs as a total of turnover bet on darts than any other sport.  I know this is true from several people in the game who have told me so as they analyse their turnover by 'mug' ratings for each sport at the really big firms.  Slybet might not go that deep.     Some firms literally say it is close to 100% mug turnover on darts on sky as a rating of their customers.  Football/horses/dog obviously has loads of mugs as well but plenty of sharps too.  Darts literally has no sharps.  That was my point  OBviously when u bet to 107% 2 way the actual hold %'s aren't going to change much just because it is darts but the mix of clients who bet on darts are massively rec compared to other sports.  ie it is probably a good way to keep an account open with major firms betting a lot of darts at the start esp on the off game by game.

[atdc21]

yes good job the sunderland bet came in. coulda been on the wagon else. 

[arbboy]

yes good job the sunderland bet came in. coulda been on the wagon else.  

6/4 and laying 6/4 means i am level right!  All is good in the arb camp right now.  Apart from the bollocking i will get from evil pie for having 2 back to back cheat days because it is my bday on the stella.  I hope evil doesn't read the sports pages. 

[Tal]

yes good job the sunderland bet came in. coulda been on the wagon else.  

6/4 and laying 6/4 means i am level right!  All is good in the arb camp right now.  Apart from the bollocking i will get from evil pie for having 2 back to back cheat days because it is my bday on the stella.  I hope evil doesn't read the sports pages. 

Don't call them cheat days.

Call them rest days.

As in, that's enough gym for this week. Now let's see to the rest of that stella

[JoeBeevers]

CBB

I have to admit that I haven't done much work on this and some of the names I don't really recognise so this is just for discussion rather than a recc. I quite like the look of David Gest at 6/1 personally but John Partridge looks a decent price at 8/1+ on the machine.

Can John Partridge win? Does his reason for going in the house help?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-3386083/John-Partridge-reveals-s-Celebrity-Big-Brother-pay-mum-s-Alzheimer-s-care.html

[TightEnd]

CBB

I have to admit that I haven't done much work on this and some of the names I don't really recognise so this is just for discussion rather than a recc. I quite like the look of David Gest at 6/1 personally but John Partridge looks a decent price at 8/1+ on the machine.

Can John Partridge win? Does his reason for going in the house help?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-3386083/John-Partridge-reveals-s-Celebrity-Big-Brother-pay-mum-s-Alzheimer-s-care.html

watched it last night, purely for research purposes

thought Darren Day would win it.


How long does it last?